000
AXNT20 KNHC 240543
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Apr 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and
extends to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 01N50W. 
Strong convection is emerging off the coast of Liberia and Cote 
d'Ivoire, north of 01N and east of 14W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 03S to 04N between 17W and 37W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...
 
Ridging extends over the Gulf of America, supporting moderate to
fresh E to SE winds over much of the Gulf S of 27N, with moderate
or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas are generally 2-5 ft, with the
exception of the waters just offshore the northern Yucatan
Peninsula, where seas are analyzed at 5-6 ft. Scattered showers
are occurring in portions of the NE Gulf N of 26N and W of 88W.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging just NE of the Gulf will 
bring mainly gentle SE winds and relatively tranquil marine 
conditions to the NE half of the basin through the weekend. The 
southern and western Gulf will experience moderate to fresh east 
to southeast winds during this same period, locally pulsing to 
strong off the NW Yucatan Peninsula each night through Fri night 
as a diurnal trough affects the waters.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are occurring through the 
Windward Passage, as well as offshore of northwestern Colombia, as
the result of a pressure gradient between high pressure to the 
north and a 1008 mb low over northwestern Colombia. Seas of 4 to 6
ft are noted in the central Caribbean in association with these 
winds. Two troughs are noted in the eastern Caribbean; the first 
extends from 31N58W southwestward to the far eastern coast of 
Puerto Rico, and the second that extends from 21N57W through the 
Lesser Antilles to about 12N63W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate 
trade winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail across the rest of the 
basin, aside from portions of the NW Caribbean off the coasts of 
the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize where E winds are moderate to 
locally fresh.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging north of the basin will 
support pulsing fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage, south of 
Cuba, and offshore Colombia at night into the weekend. Moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere 
into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N58W southwestward through the
Leeward Islands, while ridging extends from a 1030 mb high 
centered north of the area. Another surface trough extends from
the Lesser Antilles to about 21N57W. The pressure gradient 
between these features is supporting fresh to locally strong E to 
SE winds east of 60W to 50W, with fresh to locally strong NE winds
occurring from 60W to 75W, generally north of 20N. Rough seas of 
8 to 10 prevail in this region from 23N, northward, between 53W 
and 70W. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are 
occurring around these troughs in a region from 48W to 64W and
north of 13N.

Otherwise, fresh to locally strong NE winds continue over the 
Bahamas, Greater Antilles, and Straits of Florida. Moderate to
fresh winds are elsewhere west of the Leeward Islands trough. To 
the east of both surface troughs, widespread moderate to fresh 
trade winds dominate those waters with seas of 5 to 8 ft, with the
exception of east of 20W and north of 10N where fresh to strong 
NE winds are present. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough extends from near 
30N58W south- southwestward to the Virgin Islands. A tight 
pressure gradient between the northern portions of this trough and
the subtropical ridge to the north is leading to fresh to locally
strong E winds and rough seas N of 23N and E of 70W. Fresh NE 
winds will continue on the NW side of the trough through Fri as 
the trough remains nearly stationary. Winds should should diminish
by the weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes. Looking ahead, a
cold front may move southward, between Florida and 65W, late 
Sunday into Monday followed by moderate to fresh N to NE winds. 

$$
Adams