431 
AXNT20 KNHC 272336
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Mar 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 06N10W and extends SW
to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to 02S45W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring south of 05N between 14W and 24W,
and south of 03N between 39N and 50W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Convergent winds near a surface trough extending from south-
central Texas through eastern Mexico is supporting moderate to
strong thunderstorms off the coast of south Texas. Ridging extends
over the remainder of the Gulf of America. The pressure gradient 
between ridging over the central and eastern Gulf and the trough
west of the basin maintains moderate to fresh SE winds through the
Gulf, with locally strong winds observed just north of the Yucatan
Peninsula and offshore of northwestern Cuba. Slight seas prevail
in the northeastern basin, with 4-7 ft seas across the rest of the
Gulf. 

For the forecast, building high pressure continues across the 
area. Fresh to strong winds over the NW Gulf will expand in 
coverage through Fri then diminish by early Sat. Seas generated by
these winds will build to 9 ft. A weak cold front may approach 
the NW Gulf late Sun night into early next week, with winds 
diminishing to gentle to moderate ahead of it. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between low pressure over northwestern
Colombia and ridging to the north is maintaining moderate trade
winds across much of the Caribbean. Fresh NE winds are observed
through the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba, in the Gulf
of Honduras, and offshore of northern South America. Locally
strong winds are noted in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore of
northern Colombia. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail across the basin, with
local seas to 8 ft occurring downwind of strong winds in the
south-central Caribbean. 

For the forecast, winds off Colombia will pulse to near gale 
force speeds at night and early morning through the upcoming 
weekend. Fresh to strong winds will occur in the lee of Cuba, in 
the Windward Passage, and over the waters between Cuba tonight 
through Fri night. Similar winds will develop offshore central 
Honduras and south of Hispaniola tonight through the upcoming 
weekend and into early next week. Moderate to fresh winds will 
prevail elsewhere, except diminishing to light to gentle in the 
lee of Cuba late in the weekend. Northerly swell may impact the 
Atlantic Passages this weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N61W through the SE Bahamas. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and within 250 NM E
of the trough, with fresh to strong winds and seas of 4-6 ft 
occurring within areas of convection. Another surface trough in 
the NE subtropical Atlantic extends from 30N25W to 22N29W, with 
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the vicinity of 
the trough. A third trough has been analyzed offshore of Florida, 
extending from 31N79W to 26N79W. Moderate to locally fresh winds 
and seas of 3-5 ft are noted near the trough.

The remainder of the basin is dominated by ridging stemming from a
1034 mb high centered near 37N36W. The enhanced pressure gradient
between this high and lower pressures in the tropics supports 
fresh to strong E to NE winds and rough seas across much of the 
tropical and subtropical Atlantic between 20W and 60W. Outside of 
this large region, E to NE winds are moderate to locally fresh 
with prevailing moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will continue to 
build in the W Atlantic, bringing an increase in winds across much
of the waters south of 29N tonight and continue through early 
this weekend. Rough seas will build across these waters as a 
result. Winds and seas will start to decrease later in the weekend
as the high shifts eastward and weakens. Another cold front may 
move off the SE United States coast by early Tue. 

$$
ADAMS