366 
AXNT20 KNHC 261017
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Apr 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Senegal at 14N17W and continues southwestward to 01N27W. The ITCZ
extends from 01N27W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted south of 05N and W of 16W.

GULF OF AMERICA...
 
High pressure dominates the Gulf waters, supporting fresh to
locally strong easterly trade winds south of 22N and east of 95W.
Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Mainly moderate easterly breezes
and moderate seas prevail in the rest of the basin, except for
light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NE Gulf. A stable
airmass maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the
Gulf waters this weekend and into early next week supporting 
gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas. Winds will 
pulse to fresh to strong speeds each evening over the east and 
central Bay of Campeche through Tue night due to local effects 
related to a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. 
Winds of moderate to fresh speeds and moderate seas are forecast 
in the Straits of Florida through the period due to persistent 
high pressure NE of the area. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

The combination of a surface trough analyzed in the eastern 
Caribbean and divergence aloft result in widespread cloudiness and
scattered showers over the area. Scattered showers are also noted
in Hispaniola and near the coast of eastern and western Cuba. 
Generally dry conditions are found in the rest of the basin. High
pressure north of the Caribbean support fresh to strong NE winds 
off northern Colombia. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Fresh NE 
winds and moderate seas are occurring in the Windward Passage and 
lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin combined with 
the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trade 
winds offshore Colombia through this morning. Moderate to fresh NE
winds are expected in the Windward Passage and the lee side of 
Cuba through Tue night. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere into early next 
week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad surface trough extends from 31N58W to the Mona Passage.
Scattered showers are evident east of the boundary, mainly N of
26N. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to 
fresh NE-E winds west of a line from 31N55W to NE Hispaniola. Seas
in these waters are 5-8 ft. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is 
under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge near the Azores. 
The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in 
Africa result in fresh to strong NE winds east of 25W and north of
15N. Seas in the area described are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate 
or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between high 
pressure over the NW Atlantic the surface trough to the N of 
Puerto Rico will continue to support fresh NE winds and rough seas
N of 23N between 60W and 70W through today. A frontal boundary 
will clip the northern forecast waters between 55W and 65W today, 
bringing fresh to strong E winds and seas to around 8 ft. Looking 
ahead, a cold front may move southward, between Florida and 65W, 
late Sunday into Monday followed by moderate to fresh N to NE 
winds. 

$$
ERA