000
AXNT20 KNHC 262245
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Apr 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Senegal at 14N16.5W and continues southwestward to 01.5N28W. The 
ITCZ extends from 01.5N28W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01.5N to 
09N between 12W and 22W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 42W and 52W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...
 
Stable conditions and fair weather prevail across the basin late
this afternoon. Surface high pressure dominates the Gulf waters,
with 1020 mb high centered over the NE Gulf extending eastward
into the Atlantic. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate 
E to SE winds and moderate seas, except in the NE Gulf where light
to gentle and slight seas prevail. Moderate to fresh southeasterly
winds are noted offshore of central and southern Texas, while
fresh easterly winds are in the western Straits of Florida passing
north of the Yucatan Channel. A stable airmass maintains fairly 
tranquil weather conditions and very few significant clouds.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the
Gulf waters this weekend and into early next week, supporting 
gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas. Winds will 
pulse to fresh to strong speeds each evening over the east and 
central Bay of Campeche through Tue night due to local effects 
related to the typical thermal trough moving westward off the 
Yucatan Peninsula. Winds of moderate to fresh speeds and moderate 
seas are forecast in the Straits of Florida through the period due
to persistent high pressure NE of the area. By Monday night, SE winds
may increase a bit in the central and northwest Gulf and persist 
into mid-week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A band of multilayer clouds, with embedded scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms, extends from northern Colombia and Venezuela
northeastward across the eastern Caribbean and the northern 
Leeward Islands into the central Atlantic. This cloudiness is 
associated with strong SW winds aloft occurring on the eastern 
side of a broad upper level trough across the Caribbean basin. 
Elsewhere, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is 
producing isolated to scattered passing showers across much of the
northeast Caribbean and adjacent islands. High pressure north of 
the Caribbean is somewhat restricted from building fully across
the basin, due to a persistent broad inverted trough across the
Atlantic along 65W-67W. However, the pressure gradient between 
the ridge and low pressure over Colombia supports fresh to locally
strong NE to E winds off northern Colombia. Seas in these waters 
are 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas 
are occurring in the Windward Passage, in the lee of Cuba and 
across the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, south of the Atlantic 
inverted trough, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 
seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin will combine 
with the Colombian low to support winds pulsing to fresh at night
in the Windward Passage, south of Cuba, and offshore Colombia, 
with mainly moderate trade winds elsewhere. By Monday evening, 
winds will pulse to strong south of Cuba and in the Windward 
Passage, as high pressure north of the area strengthens and begins
to build southeastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad surface trough persists over the Atlantic waters, from 
Puerto Rico N-NE to near 30N63W. Scattered showers, with embedded
thunderstorms, are noted near and to the E of the northern end of
the trough axis, N of 25N between 54W and 60W. Recent scatterometer
data provide observations of moderate to fresh winds on the
periphery of either side of the trough. A stalled frontal 
boundary along 31N is supporting fresh NE to E winds roughly N of 
29N between 55W and 66W. The pressure gradient between high 
pressure ridging to the east of northern Florida and lower 
pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh NE 
to E trades over the Bahamas and through the Straits of Florida. 
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence
of a 1027 mb high pressure located NE of the Azores. The pressure
gradient between this system and lower pressures in NW Africa is 
resulting in fresh to strong NE winds N of 15N and E of 25W. Seas 
are 6 to 9 ft within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front along 31N east 
of 64W will move eastward over the next couple days. Elsewhere, a
weak surface trough along 65W extending from Puerto Rico to 28N 
will persist for the next few days while gradually weakening. A 
cold front will move S of 31N Sun night, reach from near 31N61W to
26N72W to Daytona Beach Florida Mon evening, then move to near 
31N55W to the central Bahamas Tue evening before weakening. 
Moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds will follow in behind the front.

$$
Stripling