000
AXNT20 KNHC 281046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Apr 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis is primarily over land across western 
Africa, however, a small segment exits the coast of southern 
Mauritania near 17N16W and reaches southwestward to near 13N21W. 
The ITCZ extends from 08N19W to 05N30W to 06N22W to the Equator at
37W and to the coast of Brazil near 02.5S44W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is from the Equator to 02N between 40W 
and 46W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm south
of the ITCZ between 19W-25W and between 29W-30W.

GULF OF AMERICA...
 
Weak high pressure continues across the basin anchored by a 1019 
mb high over the NE Gulf at 29N86W. A weak trough is just inland 
the coast of Florida from Fort Myers to near Steinhatchee. The 
resulting gradient is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds 
across most of the basin, except light and variable northeast 
portions. Wave heights are 3 to 6 ft, except for 3 ft or less in 
the NE Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft in the central Gulf from 22N to 26N 
between 87W and 91W. No significant convection is occurring at 
the present time across the entire basin as stable atmospheric 
conditions prevail. Hazy conditions are being reported in some 
sections of the western Gulf due to smoke from local agricultural 
and forest fires in eastern and southern Mexico.

For the forecast, the weak pressure will continue to dominate the
basin through at least the mid-week supporting gentle to moderate
E to SE winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to 
strong speeds each evening over the east and central Bay of 
Campeche through the forecast period due to local effects related 
to a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh winds 
and moderate seas are forecast in the Straits of Florida Mon night
through Wed night as high pressure located NE of Florida 
strengthens. By Monday night, southeast winds are forecast to 
increase over the western Gulf and persist through mid-week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A deep layer trough is over the western Atlantic reaching to 
the northwest Caribbean. Divergent southwesterly flow aloft ahead
of the trough continues to support ample moisture across the 
central and eastern Caribbean, and resultant scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms over the southwest Caribbean coastal 
waters of eastern Panama and Colombia. Farther east, shallow 
moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is producing scattered 
passing showers across much of the eastern Caribbean and adjacent 
islands east of about 70W. Drier conditions are noted over the 
northwestern Caribbean, under the influence of the northern flow 
aloft west of the trough. At the surface, the wind flow pattern 
is being driven by relatively weak high pressure that is 
present north of the area to the northeast of the northern 
Bahamas, and the usual low pressure found off Colombia. This 
pattern is supporting gentle to moderate easterly flow across the 
basin along with seas of 2 to 4 ft, except for fresh northeast 
winds off Colombia, and moderate to fresh northeast to east 
winds in the lee of Cuba. Seas are 6 to 8 ft off of Colombia.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the basin combined 
with the Colombian low will support pulsing fresh winds at night 
in the Windward Passage, south of Cuba, and offshore Colombia, 
with moderate trades elsewhere. By this evening, winds will pulse 
to strong in the lee of Cuba and in the Windward Passage, as high 
pressure north of the area strengthens. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Weak 1021 mb high pressure is analyzed over the western Atlantic
NE of the Bahamas near 29N77W, just west of a persistent broad surface
trough that is analyzed from 20N67W 25N65W and to 30N62W. Marine
conditions will continue to gradually improve across the waters 
west of the trough, with gentle or lighter winds and seas 5 ft or
less W of the trough. Divergent flow aloft is helping to sustain
an area of increasing moderate convection east of the trough from 
20N to 27N between 57W and 65W. Farther east, a frontal boundary
that enters the area through 31N25W is dissipating to near 
26N38W. Meanwhile, strong high pressure prevail north of the 
boundary across the north-central Atlantic. This pattern is 
supporting gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas west of 
60W, and moderate to fresh northeast to east winds along with seas
of 5 to 7 ft in north to northeast swell east of 65W as indicated 
by overnight altimeter satellite data passes.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough
will drift eastward as a cold front that extends from near 31N69W
to northeast Florida reaches from near 31N63W to the NW Bahamas 
by early this evening, from near 31N60W to the central Bahamas Tue
morning, and from near 31N57W to the southeastern Bahamas Tue 
evening. The front is forecast to stall from 31N55W to near 
northern Hispaniola by Wed evening and begin to weaken. Moderate 
to fresh north to northeast winds and moderate to rough seas will 
follow the front. Building high pressure in the wake of the front 
will dominate most of the forecast waters for remainder of the 
week. 

$$
Aguirre