065 
AXNT20 KNHC 060540
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Apr 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning/Swell Event: A central Atlantic 
cold front extends from 31N42W to 29N56W to 31N65W. Recent
satellite-derived wind data indicate gale-force winds occurring
behind the front, across areas N of 30N between 37W and 45W. 
Winds will diminish below gale-force later this morning as the 
front shifts southeastward. Meanwhile, a related large N swell
following the front is producing seas of 12-16 ft across areas N 
of 29N between 32W and 53W. This swell will produce seas of 12-
20 ft south of 31N through Mon night, then gradually subside 
afterward. Seas of 12 ft or greater will reach to 17N between the 
Canary Islands and 53W through Mon night.

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure of 1025 mb analyzed southwest of Bermuda near 31N70W and
a 1010 mb Colombian Low will continue to support strong to near- 
gale force trades across the south-central Caribbean through 
tonight. Winds will pulse up to gale-force again tonight with 
seas reaching to 12 ft with the strongest winds.

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is moving off the 
Texas coast into the northwest Gulf this evening. The front will 
reach from Mobile Bay to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico by this evening, 
followed by strong to near-gale force N winds and building seas. 
Winds will reach gale force off Tampico, Mexico Sun morning, and 
off Veracruz, Mexico by Sun afternoon. The winds will diminish 
below gale force into Mon night, as the front reaches from Cedar 
Key, Florida to near Merida, Mexico, but strong winds and rough 
seas will follow the front across most of the western Gulf.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters 
Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, at website:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
all three Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast 
of Africa near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 02N19W, 
where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ then extends from
02N19W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is from 05S to 05N between 05W and 30W, and also from
the NE coast of Brazil to 03N between 40W and 48W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of America. 
Please refer to the Special Features section for more details. 

Fresh to near gale-force SE winds are across most of the basin, 
generated by a tight gradient between high pressure of 1025 mb 
over the western Atlantic near 31N70W and low pressure of 1003 mb
analyzed over Mexico. This sustained SE flow is producing seas of
8 ft and higher across most of the waters W of 85W and N of 22N, 
with peak seas around 11 ft. Seas are 5 to 8 ft are over the rest 
of the basin. A cold front extends from near Galveston, TX to the
coast of Mexico near Tampico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are in the far NW Gulf near the coastal border of TX and LA. Latest
satellite imagery and observations continue to reveal sea fog 
over portions of the NW Gulf waters ahead of the front, producing 
low visibility.

For the forecast, a cold front is moving off the Texas coast into
the far northwest Gulf this evening. The front will reach from 
Mobile Bay to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico by Sun evening, followed by 
strong to near- gale force N winds and building seas. Winds will 
reach gale force off Tampico, Mexico Sun morning, and off 
Veracruz, Mexico by Sun afternoon. The winds will diminish below 
gale force into Mon night, as the front reaches from Cedar Key, 
Florida to near Merida, Mexico, but strong winds and rough seas 
will follow the front across most of the western Gulf. Winds and 
seas will diminish through Tue from west to east as high pressure 
builds over the southern Plains and the front moves southeast of 
the basin. Looking ahead, gentle breezes and slight seas will 
persist Wed into Thu in all but the southeast Gulf, where large 
swell may persist through Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters near the coast of 
Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features section for more 
details. 

Scatterometer satellite data passes from today highlighted a
broad area of fresh to strong trades across most of the basin. 
This is due to a tight pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the area and the Colombian low. Moderate to fresh trades
are observed in the E Caribbean E of 66W. Seas are 6 to 10 ft 
across the majority of the basin, with localized seas up to 12 ft 
offshore of northern Colombia.

For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda 
High and the Colombian Low will continue to produce strong trade 
winds across the central Caribbean, the Atlantic Passages and the 
Gulf of Honduras through Sun morning, with another pulse of gale-
force winds expected offshore of Colombia tonight. Rough to very 
rough seas will accompany these winds. The Bermuda high will 
weaken and shift eastward late Sun through mid-week, leading to 
diminishing trades across the Caribbean. A cold front is expected 
to reach the northwest Caribbean Tue morning, with fresh to 
locally strong northerly winds filling in behind it. The front 
will move eastward and stall from central Cuba to NE Honduras and 
through Thu before dissipating. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the far NE Atlantic waters east of
40W. Please refer to the Special Features section for more 
details.

A surface trough, remnants of a dissipated cold front in the
central to NE subtropical Atlantic, extends from 31N17W to 22N47W. 
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 8 to 12 ft seas follow the 
trough. The subtropical ridge is anchored by 1025 mb high 
pressure SW of Bermuda near 31N70W. This pattern is supporting 
fresh to strong E to SE winds and 8 to 10 ft seas from offshore of
the northern portion of the Greater Antilles through the Bahamas.
Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere 
across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front is moving southward 
east of Bermuda and is now along 30N. The front will continue 
southward east of 65W through early next week, before eventually 
stalling and dissipating along 20N by late Tue. Large N swell will
follow the front east of 65W. High pressure southwest of Bermuda 
is supporting fresh to strong E winds and rough seas near the 
approaches to the Windward Passage. These winds and seas will 
diminish through Sun as the high pressure re-centers eastward 
behind the front. Expect fresh to strong S winds and building seas
off northeast Florida Sun into Mon ahead of a cold front moving 
off the northeast Florida coast Mon night into Tue. Looking ahead,
the front will generally stall from Bermuda to central Cuba by 
mid-week, followed by fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas.

$$
Adams