000
AXNT20 KNHC 171047
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Apr 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and extends to
05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 02N41W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring south of 06N and east of 18W, and
south of 04N between 20W and 40W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front resides over the Florida Straits, and no 
significant convection is noted near this feature. The rest of 
the basin is dominated by a 1020 mb high centered near 29N86W, 
supporting gentle to locally moderate N to E winds and slight seas
east of 90W. Moderate SE winds are occurring west of 90W, and 
locally fresh SE winds are noted offshore of the Texas-Mexico 
border near Brownsville. Seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail in this region.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE winds will occur 
offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of 
Campeche through this weekend as a trough develops daily and moves
westward. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong SE winds will 
develop west of 90W today as a low pressure system strengthens in 
the central United States. By Fri, pulsing fresh to locally strong
SE winds are expected across much of the basin, including through
the Florida Straits, as the pressure gradient strengthens between
the aforementioned low and building high pressure over the 
western Atlantic. Seas will slowly build through this weekend, 
with rough seas possible near the strong winds by early Sat. 
Looking ahead, winds and seas will slowly diminish next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A 1007 mb low centered over northwestern Colombia is supporting
strong to near-gale force winds offshore of Colombia and
associated seas of 8 to 10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE to
E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted across much of the rest 
of the basin, with the exception of the Windward Passage and in
the lee of lee of Cuba, where slight seas prevail. 

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NE winds will pulse 
each night and morning offshore of Colombia through early next 
week. Rough to very rough seas are expected near and to the west 
of the strongest winds in the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, 
pulsing strong winds are likely in the Gulf of Venezuela into 
early next week. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected to develop 
in the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba tonight, with 
widespread fresh to locally strong winds occurring across the 
central and western Caribbean Fri through this weekend as high 
pressure strengthens over the western Atlantic. Rough seas will 
accompany the winds, with seas over 8 ft expected across the 
central basin and through the Windward Passage. Looking ahead, a 
long period N swell will promote rough seas near the Greater 
Antilles and through the Passages into the Caribbean this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends from 31N42W southwestward to
28N62W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 24N to 
28N between 55W and 65W associated with this front. Farther west, 
a cold front extends from 31N67W through the central Bahamas, and 
continues as a stationary front through the Florida Straits. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring along the cold 
front. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and seas of 3 to 6 
ft are found in the wake of this front. Elsewhere, a surface ridge
stretches southwestward from a 1027 mb high centered north of the
area near 35N41W to northeast of the Leeward Islands. Gentle to 
moderate ESE to S winds are seen near the ridge axis, north of 27N
between 35W and 65W. To the south from 03N to 20N between 35W and
the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds with 6 to 
8 ft seas dominate. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4
to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail elsewhere in the 
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending from 
31N67W through the Bahamas and Florida Straits will slowly drift 
southward through Fri, and high pressure is expected to build in 
the wake of the front. A strengthening pressure gradient between 
these features will support widespread moderate to fresh NE winds,
with localized strong winds, and rough seas north of the Greater 
Antilles late tonight through this weekend. Widespread strong E to
NE winds and rough seas are expected Sat into Sun through the 
Bahamas and near the Greater Antilles. Winds and seas will slowly 
diminish west of 65W early next week. Looking ahead, a complex low
pressure system may develop in the central Atlantic this weekend,
producing fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas surrounding the
low, east of 65W. 

$$
ADAMS