000
AXNT20 KNHC 011552
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Apr 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1545 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean near 10N14W and
extends southwestward to 01N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ
to 02S30W to near 01S44W. Scattered moderate convection is active
from 07S to 06N between 15W and 21W and between 27W and 49W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A portion of a stationary front extends over the coast of Texas,
while a cold front extends from north of Apalachicola, FL to New
Orleans, LA. Scattered moderate convection is depicted along the
front over the NE Gulf. To the SW, the typical thermal trough is 
analyzed over the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, the subtropical 
ridge extends from the western Atlantic across the Florida 
Peninsula to the central Gulf. This pattern is supporting moderate
to fresh winds with moderate seas along the northern western 
coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, but mostly gentle breezes and 2 
to 4 ft seas elsewhere across the Gulf. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds will develop 
across much of the basin west of 85W tonight. These winds will 
support building rough seas in this region the middle of the week 
through late week. East of 85W, moderate SE winds will strengthen 
to fresh to strong speeds Wed into Thu, including the Florida 
Straits.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the 
area and a 1010 mb over northern Colombia is supporting fresh to 
strong trade winds over the central Caribbean coast and in the 
Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere west of
80W, except for fresh to locally strong winds over the Gulf of
Honduras. Fresh winds are found over the western Caribbean. Seas 
of 6-8 ft prevail east of 80W, with seas in the 3-6 ft range west
of 80W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will pulse
offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Tue 
before strengthening to near-gale force Wed through the weekend. 
Rough to very rough seas are expected with these winds. Fresh to 
strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will increase to 
near-gale force speeds, with rough seas developing for the second 
half of the week. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will 
strengthen with building rough seas dominating the basin Thu into 
the upcoming weekend. Large E swell will impact the tropical 
Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages most of the week, 
maintaining rough seas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid level short wave trough moving across the southeastern 
United States supporting scattered moderate convection north of 
26N between 73W and 76W. Farther east, broad high pressure 
dominates the Atlantic waters, anchored by a strong 1033 mb high 
center that is located over the north- central Atlantic near 
35N44W. The associated gradient supports moderate to fresh 
easterly winds and 7 to 10 ft seas over open Atlantic waters west 
of 42W. A cold front is moving across the eastern Atlantic and 
extends from 30N23W westward to 28N43W. No significant weather is 
occurring with this front. Fresh NW to N winds are found along and
north of the front, with rough seas in long- period NW swell. In 
the eastern part of the area, gentle to moderate winds, and seas 
of 4 to 7 ft are north of 20N and east of about 40W. Moderate to 
fresh winds along with seas of 6 to 7 ft are present elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will push offshore of 
the southeastern U.S. today. High pressure will build in the wake 
of the front. The building high will support fresh to strong E to 
SE winds and rough seas across the waters south of 27N, including 
through the Atlantic Passages into the Caribbean, by the middle of
the week. 

$$
KRV