236 
AXNT20 KNHC 012154
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Apr 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2120 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Meteo-France Gale Warning: Meteo-France forecasts gale-force NW
winds from 12 UTC through 21 UTC on April 2nd. Very large seas of
8 to at least 14 ft will likely accompany these winds. For more
details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on
their website https://wwwmiws.wmo.int

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean near 09.5N13.5W
to 01.5N21W. The ITCZ extends from 01.5N21W to 02S30W to offshore
of northern Brazil near 01.5S41W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03.5N to 05.5N between 11W and 17W, south of 02N
between 27W and 42W, and south of 08N between 42W and 53W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front is analyzed from the Florida Panhandle near 
30N85W to 29N90W to SW Louisiana near 29.5N93W. No significant
convection is noted near the boundary in the past few hours.
Gentle to moderate SE to S winds dominate the basin. Seas are 2 to
4 ft west of 87W, and 1 to 3 ft east of 87W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds will develop 
across much of the basin west of 85W tonight. These winds will 
support building rough seas in this region the middle of the week 
through late week. East of 85W, moderate SE winds will strengthen 
to fresh to strong speeds Wed into Thu, including the Florida 
Straits. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the 
area and a 1008 mb over northern Colombia is supporting fresh to 
strong trade winds over the central Caribbean coast and in the 
Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere across
the basin. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are south of 18N and east of 80W, and
mainly 3 to 5 ft elsewhere, except 2 to 4 ft in the lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas offshore 
of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela will increase to near- 
gale force Wed through the weekend. Rough to very rough seas are 
expected with these winds. Fresh to strong E to SE winds in the 
Gulf of Honduras will increase to near-gale force speeds, with 
rough seas developing for the second half of the week. Elsewhere, 
moderate to fresh trade winds will strengthen with building rough 
seas dominating the basin Thu into the upcoming weekend. Large E 
swell will impact the tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean 
Passages most of the week, maintaining rough seas. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak surface trough is evident over the far NW waters in wind
data, but other than a wind shift any earlier nearby convection
has diminished in the past few hours. Otherwise, a 1031 mb high
centered north of the discussion waters near 35N45W. This feature
dominates the Atlantic waters. Fresh to locally strong trades
dominate the waters south of 25N and east of 73W, along with seas
of 6 to 9 ft in mixed NE and NW swell. A cold front extending 
from a low well north of the area and west of the Iberian 
Peninsula extends a cold front southwestward through 31N18W to 
27N35W, continuing as a frontal trough to 28N46W. Some scattered 
showers are possible on either side of these features per 
satellite data. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are west of the 
front to 30W, along with building seas of 8 to around 12 ft.
Mainly seas of 5 to 7 ft and winds of gentle to moderate prevail 
across the remainder of the waters, locally fresh north of 29N 
between 65W and 74W, and elsewhere north of the frontal trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will build across the
area. The building high will support fresh to strong E to SE 
winds and rough seas across the waters south of 25N, including 
through the Atlantic Passages into the Caribbean.

$$
Lewitsky