000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180930
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Apr 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from a 1007 mb low over northwestern Colombia 
near 09N74W to 06N77W to 08N83W to 06N93W. The ITCZ continues 
from 06N93W to 06N131W. A second ITCZ is noted from 02S120W to 
beyond 06S140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 
07N to 10N east of 90W, and from 04N to 10N between 100W and 
133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A trough has been analyzed from 30N120W to 26N125W, and ridging 
extends over the the waters offshore of Baja California. Farther 
east, troughing prevails over the Gulf of California. The 
pressure gradient between these features supports locally fresh 
to strong W to NW winds and seas to 6 ft across the central and 
northern Gulf of California, and moderate to fresh NW winds 
offshore of the Baja California Peninsula. Farther south, gentle 
to locally moderate NW winds prevail offshore of southern and 
southwestern Mexico. Seas of 3 to 6 ft are noted over much of the
Mexico offshore waters as seen by recent altimeter satellite 
data, with 1 to 4 ft seas observed through the Gulf of 
California, away from the strong winds. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong W to NW winds will pulse in 
the central and northern Gulf of California this morning as a 
strong pressure gradient prevails between troughing over the 
region and high pressure to the west. A second surge of localized
fresh to strong winds are expected tonight into early Sat, with 
diminishing winds expected thereafter. Elsewhere, locally fresh 
NW winds will pulse offshore of Baja California Sur each night 
and morning through Sun, and offshore of Jalisco this weekend. 
Otherwise, prevailing ridging over the eastern Pacific will 
support moderate winds and moderate seas offshore of Baja 
California and southwestern Mexico into early next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong E winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo as a strong
pressure gradient prevails between a 1007 mb low centered over 
northwestern Colombia and a 1021 mb high in the northeastern Gulf
of America. Locally rough seas to 8 ft in E swell are observed 
via altimeter satellite data in this area. Elsewhere, fresh to 
locally strong N winds are occurring through the Gulf of Panama. 
Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft
in S swell, as seen on recent altimeter satellite data, are 
occurring through the remainder of the regional waters. 

The Santa Maria Volcano located in southwestern Guatemala near 
14.8N91.6W is presently undergoing continuous volcanic ash 
emissions. The volcanic ash near the volcano is moving to the 
southwest. GOES-E satellite imagery shows resultant hazy skies 
near and along the coast of Guatemala. Reduced visibility is 
possible near the coast. Mariners are encouraged to be aware of 
the latest updates on the status of the volcano. 

For the forecast, strong E to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Papagayo through this weekend as a strong pressure gradient 
prevails between the Colombian low and ridging over the eastern 
Gulf of America and western Atlantic. Winds may reach near-gale 
force at times this morning and again tonight into Sat morning, 
and locally rough seas in E swell will accompany these winds. 
Winds are expected to diminish slightly early next week. 
Elsewhere, pulsing fresh to locally strong N winds will occur in 
the Gulf of Panama through Sat. Looking ahead, a new long-period 
S to SW swell will propagate through the regional waters early 
next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A trough has been analyzed over the north-central waters from 
30N120W to 26N125W, and locally moderate NW to W winds are noted 
near this feature. Otherwise, a 1031 mb centered north of the 
area near 38N141W extends ridging through much of the eastern 
Pacific waters north of the ITCZ. Widespread moderate N to NE 
winds are occurring along the periphery of the ridge as observed 
on recent scatterometer satellite data, with locally fresh NE 
winds noted from 10N to 20N west of 130W. Locally rough seas in a
short-period, wind-generated E swell are noted from 05N to 16N, 
west of 120W. Elsewhere, seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail north of the 
ITCZ. Farther south, a long-period southern Hemisphere swell is 
promoting locally rough seas to 8 ft just south of the equator 
and west of 110W. Moderate SE winds prevail in this region. 

For the forecast, ridging will continue to dominate the eastern 
Pacific waters over the coming days, supporting moderate N to E 
winds north of the ITCZ into early next week. Pulsing fresh NE 
winds are expected through Sun between 05N and 20N, west of 115W.
A short-period, wind-generated E swell will promote rough seas 
in this region through early next week. Farther south, rough seas
in S swell south of the equator will subside through Sat 
morning. Looking ahead, new N swell will lead to rough seas in 
the northern waters, north of 25N, by early next week. 

$$
ADAMS