000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101517
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Apr 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale-force northerly gap winds
are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with peak seas near 12 ft. Winds 
will subside slightly this afternoon before a strong high 
pressure builds southward into eastern Mexico tonight, inducing 
an extended period of gale-force gap winds, as well as very rough
seas, that will continue into Sun. Seas may peak to around 15 ft
again by early Sat. As the responsible high pressure in Mexico 
weakens and moves east for the start of next week, conditions 
will improve. Fresh to strong winds will then pulse there Sun 
afternoon and night. Please refer to the the latest High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from near the border of Colombia and
Panama at 07N78W to 05N81W to 08N98W to 03N94W. The ITCZ extends
from 03N94W to 02N128W, with another segment from 03N131W to 
beyond 00N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 03.4S to 04N between 79W and 85W, from 03.4S to 07.5N
between 87.5W and 97W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a gale
warning in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

High pressure dominating the waters is leading to moderate or
weaker winds throughout the region. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in 
primarily NW swell north of 20N, and primarily SW swell south of 
18N, with seas locally to 8 ft near and southwest of the 
Revillagigedo Islands. In the Gulf of California, seas are 3 ft 
or less.

For the forecast, winds will remain moderate or weaker through 
Fri night. Areas of fresh winds may develop in association with a
cold front this weekend offshore Baja California Norte and in 
the northern Gulf of California. Southerly swell will build wave 
heights to rough offshore SW Mexico tonight through Thu night. 
Large NW swell may impact the Baja California waters this 
weekend, subsiding early next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo, where seas
are building to 8 to 10 ft. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE 
winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Winds are gentle elsewhere. 
Seas are 6 to 9 ft in arriving SW swell offshore Ecuador to the 
Galapagos Islands. Seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft across the remainder
of the waters.

For the forecast, high pressure building southward into the 
western Caribbean will lead to pulsing fresh to strong NE to E 
gap winds in the Papagayo region into the weekend. Locally fresh 
winds will pulse during this time in the Gulf of Panama, 
otherwise the remainder of the waters will have moderate or 
weaker winds. Large NW swell from Gulf of Tehuantepec gales will 
propagate into the waters offshore Guatemala through the weekend.
SW swell will cause seas to build through the end of the the 
week, reaching rough category for most of the waters, except for 
the lee of the Galapagos Islands. As the swell decays this 
weekend, seas are forecast to subside into early next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

High pressure is analyzed just north of 30N west-southwest of the
California Channel Islands. A cold front is moving into the
waters just southeast of 30N140W with locally fresh winds and
building seas in NW swell behind it. Moderate trades are found 
north of the ITCZ to around 18N and west of 110W. Winds are 
mainly gentle across the remainder of the open waters. Seas are 7
to 10 ft in merging SW and NW swell south of 20N, and 4 to 7 ft 
north of 20N in decaying NW swell.

For the forecast, the extensive swell over the waters south of 
20N will gradually decay from west to east through the end of 
the week. A prolonged Gulf of Tehunatepec gale will send NE swell
well southwest of the source region toward the central waters 
mixing with the aforementioned SW swell. A cold front moving into
the far NW waters will bring moderate to fresh winds and 
building NW swell behind it. That swell will build wave heights 
to 7 to 10 ft, mainly north of 23N or so through the upcoming 
weekend. Winds are likely to freshen west of 130W beginning Fri 
night and into the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds 
across the region in the wake of the front.

$$
Konarik