000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111458
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Apr 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale-force northerly gap winds
continue this morning across the Gulf of Tehuantepec as high
pressure remains over eastern Mexico. Seas in the vicinity and
downstream of Tehuantepec are around 12 ft. Despite a brief lull
this afternoon in gale conditions, high pressure will strengthen
this evening and introduce a prolonged period of gales tonight
into Sun morning. Seas Sat morning will peak around 14 ft. Sun,
high pressure will move east and weaken, and marine conditions
will improve. 

Please refer to the the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 11N75W to 05N85W to 04N95W. The 
ITCZ extends from 04N95W to 07N108W to 00N133W. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is noted from 00N to 08N east of 
82W and from 01N to 10N between 82W and 91W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 04N between 91W 
and 100W and from 02N to 12N between 105W and 111W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a gale
warning in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient is leading to mainly gentle
winds over the waters, aside from some moderate NW to N winds
offshore Baja California Norte, on the west side of a surface 
trough axis located over Baja California. Seas are generally 5 to
7 ft, in NW swell offshore Baja California, and SW swell for the
remainder of the waters. In the Gulf of California, seas are 3 ft
or less.

For the forecast, southerly swell will build wave heights to 
rough offshore SW Mexico through tonight. Large NW swell may 
impact the Baja California waters this weekend, subsiding early 
next week. Looking ahead, more gap winds may develop next Tue or 
Wed in the Gulf of Tehunatepec.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are across the Papagayo region, 
where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are 
in the Gulf of Panama. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere. Seas 
are 5 to 8 ft, in moderate to large S to SW swell. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection prevails across the waters north of
the equator to 10N, and east of 91W to the coasts of Costa Rica,
Panama and Colombia.

For the forecast, high pressure building southward into the 
western Caribbean will lead to pulsing fresh to strong NE to E 
gap winds in the Papagayo region through the weekend. Locally 
fresh winds will pulse during this time in the Gulf of Panama. 
Large N swell from Gulf of Tehuantepec gales will propagate into 
the waters offshore Guatemala through the weekend. SW swell will 
cause occasional rough seas for most of the waters into Fri, 
before the swell subsides this weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

High pressure centered just N of the area is weakening this
morning, allowing a cold front to push a bit further E into the
NW waters, from around 30N134W to 26N140W. Behind the front,
fresh to locally strong winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft prevail.
Some moderate to locally fresh trades are found N of the ITCZ
extending N to around 15N, W of 125W. Otherwise, winds are
moderate or weaker. E of 120W, seas are 8 to 10 ft in merging SW
and NW swell, and 5 to 8 ft in similar merging swell, primarily 
NW N of 20N and SW to the S, elsewhere in the waters.

For the forecast, the cross-equatorial swell over the waters 
south of 20N will gradually subside from west to east through 
Sat. Prolonged Gulf of Tehunatepec northerly gales will send N 
to NE swell well southwest of the source region toward the 
central waters mixing with the aforementioned SW swell through 
the weekend. The cold front in the far NW waters will meander 
through the weekend before dissipating, producing fresh to
locally strong NE winds and large NW swell behind it. That swell
will induce wave heights to 7 to 10 ft, mainly north of 24N or 
so through the weekend. Winds will freshen west of 130W this 
evening through the weekend as high pressure builds across the 
region in the wake of the weakening front.

$$
Konarik