000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100357
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Feb 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure of 1009 mb 
located over northern Colombia near 09N76W to 08N87W to 06N94W 
to 06N100W, where it transitions to the ITCZ, which then 
continues to 09N109W to 09N118W. It resumes at 08N124W to 
05N112W. The ITCZ resumes at 08N120W to 05N133W to beyond 
05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 128W and 130W, and within 30 
nm north of the ITCZ between 135W and 137W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 137W and
139W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad high pressure that extends from a strong high center well 
north of the area southeastward across the offshore waters is 
supporting mostly fresh northwest to north winds north of Punta
Eugenia, and gentle northwest winds south of Punta Eugenia. Seas
are 6 to 9 ft in northwest swell north of Punta Eugenia and 5 to
8 ft in northwest swell south of Punta Eugenia. Light to gentle 
winds continue across the remainder of Mexican offshore waters, 
including the Gulf of California. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf 
of California, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, winds in the Tehuantepec region will become 
fresh to strong from the north on Mon, diminishing to gentle 
speeds Tue. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are expected in
the Gulf of California through Mon. Winds are forecast to 
increase to fresh to locally strong speeds in the northern half 
of the Gulf of California Mon night into Tue and then again on 
Thu as a surface trough develops there. The pressure gradient 
will tighten across the Baja California offshore waters Mon 
evening through Tue night as low pressure develops over the 
southwestern United States, and as high pressure shifts well west
of the offshore waters. This set up will lead to moderate to 
fresh northwest winds and rough seas over most of the Baja 
California offshore waters. Strong northwest winds may occur near
the coast north of Cabo San Lazaro Tue night into early Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and relatively lower pressure present in the 
southern section of Central America and in northern Colombia 
is maintaining the trade wind flow in the southwestern Caribbean
and southern Central America, resulting in persistent gap winds 
across the Papagayo region and also across the Nicaraguan 
offshore waters. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in 
the Gulf of Papagayo region extending westward to near 89W. Seas 
with these winds are in the range of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to 
fresh north winds are in the Gulf of Panama reaching southward to
near 05N. Seas there are 3 to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds and 
moderate seas due to a long-period southwest swell are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the gradient related to high pressure over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea will continue to allow for pulses of 
fresh to occasionally strong northeast to east gap winds in the 
Papagayo region mainly at nigh well into the upcoming week. Peak 
seas with these winds will reach to around 7 ft. Moderate north 
winds will pulse to locally fresh each evening and at night in 
the Gulf of Panama through Mon night. Moderate or weaker winds 
and slight to moderate seas in long-period southwest swell will 
prevail elsewhere during the period. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Rather broad high pressure is over these waters, with the 
eastern extent of the ridging reaching to near 116W. The parent 
strong high center of 1037 mb is located well north of the 
discussion domain. A trough is analyzed from 29N138W to 25N134W.
A tight gradient between the high pressure and the trough is 
inducing fresh to strong east winds from 26N to 30N between 
131W and 138W. Seas with these winds are 8 to 10 ft. A trough is
analyzed along a position from near 23N135W to 27N133W. Seas of 
8 to 9 ft in mix swell are elsewhere north of 25N west of 129W.
To the south, fresh to strong trade winds are over the western 
section of the domain from 07N to 16N along with seas of 8 to 10 
ft.

For the forecast, the tight gradient is forecast to relax 
through Mon as the trough weakens and dissipates, and while
at the same time the aforementioned strong high pressure shifts 
southward as it too weakens. This will allow for the fresh to 
strong winds that are from 26N to 30N and between 131W and 138W
to diminish to mostly fresh speeds. With the high pressure 
shifting southward, this will cause the trade winds to expand in 
coverage, covering the waters west of about 118W through Tue at 
mostly strong speeds. Peak seas are expected to reach around 10 
or 11 ft with these winds west of 130W on Tue.


$$
Aguirre