000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262004
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Dec 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant NW swell: The previous sets of large NW swell have
subsided below 12 ft across most of the discussion waters.
Currently, seas around 12 ft cover a small area, mainly N of 29N
between 118W and 122W. A new set of large NW swell will enter 
the NW waters Friday, which will bring seas of 12 ft or greater 
across the waters mainly north of 18N Friday into the upcoming 
weekend. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by 
the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N104W. The ITCZ 
extends from 07N104W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 77W and 84W, and 
from 06N to 08N between 120W and 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features Section on significant NW swell
that will impact the waters offshore Baja California through the 
remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

A ridge extends from a 1028 mb high pressure centered near 
28N130W SW to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient 
between this area of high pressure and a trough over the Gulf of 
California is supporting fresh to locally strong NW-N winds well 
offshore Baja California from Punta Eugenia northward, with 
moderate to fresh winds elsewhere offshore Baja California. 
Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the 
open waters offshore Mexico. Seas are mainly 8 ft or greater 
across the offshore waters, except 4 to 7 ft from southern Mexico
from Chiapas and Tehuantepec just southwestward. Seas are 3 ft 
or less in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, high pressure west of the area will maintain 
moderate northerly winds pulsing to fresh from Cabo San Lazaro 
northward through early Sat, with gentle to moderate winds across
the remainder of the open waters. Fresh to strong N winds may 
briefly pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun evening. Several 
rounds of significant NW swell will impact most waters through 
the next several days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate NE gap winds prevail in the Papagayo region, where seas
are in the 4 to 6 ft range. Light to gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, along with seas of 4 to 7 
ft in NW swell, locally to 8 ft well offshore Guatemala. South of
the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail, 
along with seas of 4 to 7 ft in NW swell.

For the forecast, moderate gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo 
region through the next several days. Moderate to locally fresh 
winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through at least 
the end of the week, with gentle to moderate winds across the 
remainder of the area. Seas will build slightly through the end 
of the week as NW swell moves into the regional waters, decaying 
into the upcoming weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section about NW swells which
will impact the waters N of 18N Friday into the weekend.

A 1028 mb high is centered near 28N130W. Light to gentle 
anticyclonic winds are in the vicinity of the high center. 
Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west 
of 120W, except fresh to locally strong just north of the ITCZ to
20N and west of 130W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across 
the remainder of the open waters, including south of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough. Aside from the large swell discussed above, seas
are mainly in the 6 to 8 ft range east of 90W.

For the forecast, other than the large NW swell discussed in the
Special Features section, little change in winds are forecast 
over the next several days. Meanwhile, seas of 8 ft or greater 
will cover most of the waters west of roughly 90W into the end of
the week before subsiding.

$$
AL