000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131528
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jan 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event in the
Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin this evening with fresh 
to strong speeds, rapidly reaching minimal gale-force during the 
evenings through early morning hours through Fri morning. Seas 
are forecast to build to 12 ft with the strongest winds.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at the website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N81W to 07N113W. The ITCZ 
continues from 07N113W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered showers are
within 200 nm of the monsoon trough between 101W and 110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please,
refer to the Special Features section for more details.

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
where currently there is a weak pressure gradient that supports
light to gentle winds per recent scatterometer data. Seas along
the Baja offshores are moderate except N of Punta Eugenia where
seas to 8 ft in NW swell continue to gradually subside. Along 
the Gulf of California, a tighter pressure gradient is leading to
moderate to fresh NW winds and seas to 4 ft. Light to gentle 
winds and moderate seas in NW swell are seen elsewhere across the
SW Mexican offshore waters. 

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate 
winds. Long period NW swell generating rough seas to 9 ft N of 
Punta Eugenia will subside later this morning. Pulsing fresh to 
strong NW winds with building seas of 6 to 7 ft are expected in 
the Gulf of California tonight through early Wed as high pressure
establishes over the Great Basin of the United States. The next 
gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin 
this afternoon, with winds reaching minimal gale force mainly 
from the evenings through early morning hours through Fri 
morning. Seas are forecast to build to 12 ft with the strongest 
winds.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are ongoing in
the Gulf of Papagayo as air funnels through the Cordillera 
Mountains and over Lake Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh northerly 
winds and moderate seas to 4 ft are in the Gulf of Panama while 
southerly gentle to moderate winds and seas to 5 ft are across 
the offshore waters between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands. 
Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the
Gulf of Papagayo will reach fresh to strong speeds this afternoon 
and continue through Fri night, potentially increasing to near 
gale-force on Wed as high pressure ridging builds over the Caribbean.
Rough seas are expected with this gap wind event. Moderate 
easterly winds from Papagayo will propagate across the outer 
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through mid-week. 
Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to fresh N winds will occur in the 
Gulf of Panama through late this week. Gentle to moderate winds 
and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the remainder of 
the offshore forecast waters through Fri. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A strong high pressure of 1037 mb located well N of area extends
a ridge across the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 120W. 
Due to the tight pressure gradient associated with this system, 
moderate to fresh N to NE winds are occurring N of 10N W of 
125W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in NE long period swell are associated 
with these winds. In addition, moderate to fresh NE to E winds 
are noted N of the ITCZ to about 21N and W of 135W, with seas to
9 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail N of the 
monsoon trough/ITCZ W of 105W while light to gentle winds are to 
the south.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the waters N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis
and W of 110W producing moderate to fresh trade winds. Northerly 
swell will continue to affect the subtropical waters with seas to
11 ft through at least Wed. A surface trough will develop W of 
Baja California Norte today and move westward through mid-week. 
The pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure to the
N will support fresh to strong winds on either side of the 
trough axis on Tue. 

$$
ERA