973 
AXPZ20 KNHC 281539
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Apr 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to 06.5N81W to 08.5N87W 
to 07.5N112W. The ITCZ continues from 07.5N112W to 04N127W to beyond
06N140W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted from 00N to 09N east of 85W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 09N 
between 85W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh northwesterly winds generally prevail across the Baja 
California waters this morning, and gradually become fresh to moderate
NW to N winds from Cabo San Lazaro southward to the Revillagigedo
Islands. Seas across these waters are 7 to 9 ft in merging S and
NW swell. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere over the open 
waters off Mexico to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate
winds northwesterly prevail across the central and southern
portions of the Gulf of California. Seas there are 2 to 4 ft
except 5 to 6 ft in S swell across the entrance. 

For the forecast, high pressure centered well NW of the area will
build into the Baja waters through early Tue, then weaken 
slightly across the region through the remainder of the week. 
This pattern will support moderate to fresh NW winds across the 
Baja waters through early Tue, then gradually become moderate
winds through Thu. Moderate to fresh N to NE gap winds across 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning will weaken and become 
variable though Thu. Looking ahead, a significant cold front for
April is expected to move into the Baja Norte waters late during
the upcoming weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh E-NE gap winds prevail across the Papagayo
region northward across the central Nicaragua waters, becoming 
light to gentle northward to the Gulf of Fonseca. Moderate
northerly winds continue across the Gulf of Panama and extend
southward to near 06N. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over 
the area waters. Seas continue at 6-8 ft in slowly subsiding S 
to SW swell. 

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will persist to the
north of the region to maintain the current gap wind flow pattern
from the Gulf of Papagayo northward. Moderate to fresh easterly 
gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region each night and 
morning through Thu then diminish. Moderate northerly winds 
across the Gulf of Panama will diminish slightly early this week.
Cross equatorial S-SW swell across the regional waters will 
subside through tonight.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A broad ridge dominates the regional Pacific waters N of 10N 
and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and 
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate
to fresh NE trade winds N of the ITCZ to 22N and W of 116W. Seas
over these waters are in the 6-9 ft range in merging S and N 
swell. Moderate anticyclonic winds dominate the waters N of 22N, 
with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Gentle N to NE winds dominates most of 
the area E of 116W and north of the ITCZ. Seas there are 6 to 8 
ft in S swell. S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, gentle winds and 
seas of 6-8 ft in S-SW swell prevail. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms remain active within 120 nm of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough.

For the forecast, the broad high pressure ridge currently 
dominating the region W of 110W will remain in place through 
early Wed, then begin to weaken and shift SE, ahead of an 
approaching frontal system. Little change in winds and wave 
heights are expected N of the ITCZ through early Wed, before a 
decreasing trend from the middle to end of the week. Cross 
equatorial S swell propagating across the area waters will 
gradually subside through tonight.

$$
Stripling