000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052319 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Apr 05 2025

Corrected forecast for Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Central 
America, Colombia, and within 750 nm of Ecuador...

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will begin to 
surge southward along the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains of 
Mexico on Sunday in the wake of a strong late-season Gulf of 
Mexico cold front. The resultant tight gradient is expected to 
lead to minimal gale-force northerly winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec starting early on Mon, increasing to strong gale-
force by early Mon evening. Seas are expected to build to a peak
of around 12 ft Mon afternoon as the leading edge of 8 ft and 
greater seas reaches to near 14N95W. The gale conditions are 
expected to continue through at least the middle of next week. 

Please refer to the the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
MIAHSFEP2.shtml

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough axis extends from low pressure located over northern
Colombia to 07N78W to 03N89W. The ITCZ extends from 07N110W 
to 05N118W to 06N126W to 04N133W 04N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 04N to 10N between 80W-85W, and 
from the Equator to 05N between 85W-89W, also within 120 nm 
north of the ITCZ between 114W-117W, within 60 nm north of the
ITCZ between 110W-117W and between 117W-122W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on 
an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning.

Strong high pressure of 1030 mb is centered north of the area 
near 33N129W. A ridge extends southeastward from the high to 
the waters offshore of Baja California while a trough is along
the coast of Mexico. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes
indicate moderate to fresh NW to N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft
over the the Baja California waters and offshore of southwestern
Mexico as a result of these features. Moderate to fresh NW winds 
are in the Gulf of California, except in the southern part where
fresh to strong NW to N winds are present. Seas are 3 ft or less
in the northern part of the Gulf, 3 to 5 ft in the central part
and 4 to 6 ft in the southern part. Gentle to moderate N to NE 
winds are elsewhere over the offshore waters along with moderate
seas.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW to N winds will 
prevail through the Baja California waters and offshore of 
southwestern Mexico into next week. Pulsing fresh to strong NW 
winds are expected in the central and southern Gulf of California
tonight into Mon as the pressure gradient strengthens between 
ridging to the west and troughing over western Mexico. Looking 
ahead, strong N winds will develop Sun night in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec before quickly strengthening to gale force Mon along 
with rough seas, continuing through at least the middle of next 
week. Elsewhere, long-period NW swell will support rough seas 
across the Baja California waters early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Corrected

Low pressure over northwestern Colombia is currently allowing 
for fresh NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo along with seas 
to 6 ft. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft in 
mixed S and NW swell are noted over the remainder of the offshore
waters.

For the forecast, the fresh NE to E winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo will pulse to strong speeds tonight through Sun morning 
as low pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia. Locally 
fresh E winds will extend through the offshore waters of El 
Salvador and Guatemala this morning. Winds in the Papagayo 
region will diminish early next week, before re-strengthening to 
strong speeds Tue night into Wed morning. Elsewhere, mixed SW 
and NW swell will maintain moderate seas between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands into next week. Otherwise, gentle to locally 
moderate winds are expected across the remainder of the waters 
into next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

Broad surface ridging covers much of the eastern Pacific waters,
supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds north of the ITCZ to 
24N as noted in the latest scatterometer satellite data passes. 
Rough seas of 8 to 9 ft in mixed N to NE swell are over this 
part of the area as noted in the latest altimeter satellite
data passes over this part of the area. North of 24N, gentle NE 
to E winds are present there along with seas of 4 to 5 ft in
W to NW swell merging with N swell. A weak cold front is
approaching the far northwest corner of the area. followed by 
an extensive set of NW swell.  Otherwise, gentle winds and seas 
of 4 to 7 ft in mixed NW and S are noted over the waters south of
the surface trough and ITCZ. 

For the forecast, rough seas associated with the weak cold front
that will be moving through the northern waters are forecast to
progress southeastward through the rest of this weekend, with 
rough seas expected north of 25N and west of 135W through late 
tonight, and north of 15N and west of 125W by late Sun morning. 
Rough seas to 12 ft will be possible north of 20N and west of 
130W Sun through Mon. Farther south, moderate to fresh trade 
winds will prevail into next week north of the ITCZ to 25N. These
winds will help to maintain rough seas in this region. By early 
next week, rough seas in mixed NW and E to NE swell will dominate
much of the open waters. Looking ahead, long-period southern 
hemisphere swell will promote rough seas south of 05N early next 
week. 

$$
Aguirre