940 
AXPZ20 KNHC 160908
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Feb 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 03N105W to 05N120W. 
The ITCZ extends from 05N120W to 07N125W to beyond 03N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 06N 
between 112W and 115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh NW winds persist over the central and 
southern Gulf of California, between 1027 mb near 31N129W west 
of Baja California and a trough over north-central Mexico. 
Recent scatterometer and an earlier ship observation also 
indicated fresh winds persist off Punta Eugenia as well. Earlier 
altimeter satellite data also confirmed large wave heights off 
Baja California. This is due to long-period NW swell reaching as 
far south as off Cabo San Lucas and Clarion Island. Gentle 
breezes and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds over the 
central and southern Gulf of California will diminish through 
late today as the high pressure weakens ahead of an approaching 
cold front. The large NW swell off Baja California will subside 
through tonight. The cold front will move into Baja California 
Norte and the northern Gulf of California tonight through Mon, 
then stall and dissipate over Baja California Sur and the 
southern Gulf of California Tue. Large NW swell will follow the 
front late Mon into Wed off Baja California, mainly north of Cabo
San Lazaro. Farther south, expect strong to near-gale force gap 
winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue associated
with a cold front moving through the western Gulf of America. 
Looking ahead, expect another pulse of gap winds possibly to 
minimal gale force across Tehuantepec Thu.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh E winds are noted in the Gulf of Papagayo as 
low pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia and high 
pressure remains in the northern Caribbean. Light to gentle 
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail in the remainder of the 
forecast waters. 

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will pulse across the Gulf
of Papagayo into mid week as a modest pressure gradient prevails
between high pressure in the northern Caribbean and low pressure
over northwestern Colombia. Moderate seas may accompany these 
winds. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will prevail across the waters offshore of Central and 
South America into early next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad ridging extends across the waters north of 20N, anchored by
1027 mb high pressure near 30N129W. Moderate to fresh NE winds 
persist south of the high pressure, from 05N to 20N west of 110W.
Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere. Large NW swell of 8 to 11 ft
prevails over the region north of 20N and between 120W and 135W.
A mix of NW swell with shorter period NE waves associated with 
the trade winds are noted in the area from 10N to 20N west of 
122W. Moderate seas persist elsewhere.

For the forecast, the high pressure will dissipate ahead of a
cold front approaching from the west. The front will move
eastward across the waters north of 28N through early Tue, then
continue into Baja California. Another round of NW swell will
follow the front, and bringing 8 to 10 ft wave heights across the
waters north of 20N through the early part of the week, and 8 to
9 ft NW swell mixed with shorter period NE seas over the trade
wind zone from 05N to 20N west of 120W. Looking ahead, a third
round of NW swell will move into the region north of 15N west of
130W by Thu. 

$$
Christensen