000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051606
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Apr 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will begin to 
surge southward along the Sierra Mountains of Mexico on Sunday 
in the wake of a strong late-season Gulf of Mexico cold front. 
The resultant tight gradient is expected to lead to minimal gale-
force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting early 
on Mon. Seas are expected to build to a peak of around 10 ft 
during Mon. The gale conditions are expected to continue through
at least the middle of next week. Please refer to the the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough axis extends from 06N77W to 04N85W to 07N95W to 09N104W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 04N120W to
03N130W to 02S140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is seen from 08N to 12N between 103W-114W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 116W-125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on 
an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning.

Strong high pressure of 1030 mb centered well north of the area 
near 35N126W extends ridging through the waters offshore of Baja
California, and a surface trough has been analyzed over the west
coast of Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds and seas of 
5 to 7 ft are occurring through the Baja California waters and 
offshore of southwestern Mexico as a result of these features. 
Recent scatterometer satellite data depicts a localized area of 
strong NW winds near Cabo San Lucas, with seas to 8 ft in this 
region. In the Gulf of California, moderate winds prevail with 
slight seas. Otherwise, gentle winds and moderate seas are noted 
offshore of southern Mexico. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NW winds will prevail 
through the Baja California waters and offshore of southwestern 
Mexico into next week. Pulsing fresh to strong NW winds are 
slated to occur in the central and southern Gulf of California 
tonight into Mon as the pressure gradient strengthens between 
ridging to the west and troughing over western Mexico. Looking 
ahead, strong N winds will develop Sun night in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec before quickly strengthening to gale force Mon along 
with rough seas, continuing through at least the middle of next 
week. Elsewhere, long-period NW swell will support rough seas 
across the Baja California waters early next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Prevailing low pressure over northwestern Colombia is supporting
fresh to strong E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and accompanying
seas to 6 ft. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 
ft in mixed S and NW swell are noted over the remainder of the 
offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds are expected to pulse 
in the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun morning as low pressure 
prevails over northwestern Colombia. Locally fresh E winds will 
extend through the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala 
this morning. Winds in the Papagayo region will diminish early 
next week, before restrengthening to strong speeds Tue night into
Wed morning. Elsewhere, mixed SW and NW swell will maintain 
moderate seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands into next
week. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate winds are expected 
across the remainder of the waters into next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

Broad surface ridging covers much of the eastern Pacific waters,
supporting moderate to fresh E to NE winds north of the ITCZ to 
23N, as observed on recent scatterometer satellite data. Rough 
seas of 8 to 9 ft in E to NE swell prevail over this region, as 
seen on altimeter satellite data. Farther north, gentle winds and
seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail north of 23N. Otherwise, gentle winds 
and seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed NW and S are noted over the waters
south of the surface trough and ITCZ. 

For the forecast, rough seas associated with a cold front moving
through the northern waters are slated to progress southeastward
this weekend, with rough seas expected north of 25N and west of 
135W through late tonight, and north of 15N and west of 125W by 
late Sun morning. Rough seas to 12 ft will be possible north of 
20N and west of 130W Sun through Mon. Farther south, moderate to
fresh trade winds will prevail into next week north of the ITCZ 
to 25N. These winds will help to maintain rough seas in this 
region. By early next week, rough seas in mixed NW and E to NE 
swell will dominate much of the open waters. Looking ahead, a 
long-period Southern Hemisphere swell will promote rough seas 
south of 05N early next week. 

$$
Aguirre