000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200334
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Feb 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force winds will develop 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late tonight into early Thu behind a 
cold front moving through the western Gulf of America, and high 
pressure building in the wake of the front. Strong gale force 
winds are expected Thu morning through late Thu night. Peak seas 
of 14 to 19 ft will accompany the winds. Winds will diminish 
below gale force Fri evening, with seas slowly subsiding on Sat. 

For details, please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and 
Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center
at the websites: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 05N78W to 06N110W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N110W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is occurring from 06N to 11N between 115W and 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information 
regarding the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Weak ridging prevails over the Mexico offshore waters. This 
pattern supports gentle to moderate NW winds offshore of Baja 
California and southwestern Mexico, with gentle to locally
moderate winds occurring through the Gulf of California. Seas of
7 to 9 ft are noted offshore of Baja California north of 19N, 
with seas of 3 to 7 ft offshore of southwestern Mexico, and 1 to 
2 ft seas through the Gulf of California per recent altimeter
data.

For the forecast, aside from the Gale Warning in effect over the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, rough seas in NW swell offshore of Baja 
California will diminish into this evening. A cold front moving 
southward along the California coast will lead to moderate to 
locally fresh NW to N winds and will renew rough seas offshore 
of Baja California Norte this evening into Fri. Farther south, 
moderate to locally fresh NW winds are expected offshore of 
Jalisco tonight into Thu morning as a pressure gradient tightens
between a cold front moving through the western Gulf of America 
and a 1006 mb low over western Mexico. Looking ahead, moderate 
to fresh NW winds will develop late Sat and prevail through Tue 
over the central and southern Gulf of California and offshore of 
southwestern Mexico as troughing prevails in the region. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are occurring in the Gulf of 
Papagayo as relatively lower pressures prevails in the south-
central Caribbean. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate N to NE 
winds are noted north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to 
locally moderate SW winds occurring south of the trough. Seas of 
3 to 5 ft prevail in the waters offshore of Central and South 
America. 

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds will 
occur in the Gulf of Papagayo through this weekend, with the 
strongest winds occurring each night and morning. Moderate to 
rough seas will accompany these winds. Elsewhere, N winds will 
pulse to moderate to fresh speeds in the Gulf of Panama each 
night and morning beginning Thu night and through the weekend. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas 
will prevail across the offshore waters of Central and South 
America into early next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 31N127W to 31N130W. Moderate to 
locally fresh NE to E winds prevail ahead and behind the front. 
Seas in these waters are 6 to 8 ft. Otherwise, ridging extends 
through much of the eastern Pacific waters, supporting moderate N
to NE winds along the periphery of the ridge north of the 
monsoon trough and ITCZ. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail 
from 05N to 25N west of 120W, with seas 6 to 8 ft per recent 
altimeter data. South of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, gentle to 
locally moderate SE winds prevail. Multiple sets of NW swell are 
promoting seas to 8 ft offshore of Baja California north of 19N 
and east of 125W.

For the forecast, a cold front moving southward along the 
California coast will promote fresh to locally strong N to NE 
winds and rough seas north of 27N and east of 125W late tonight 
into early Fri. Mixed NW and W swell will continue to produce 
rough seas north of 05N and west of 120W through Fri before seas 
diminish into this weekend. Otherwise, ridging extending through 
the eastern Pacific waters will support moderate N to NE winds 
north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, with locally fresh winds 
occurring from 05N to 25N west of 120W. It is on Monday when
winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds with seas peaking 
to 10 ft north of the ITCZ, from 06N to 15N between 120W and 
130W.

$$
KRV