000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261508
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Nov 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 06N90W to 07N100W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N100W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is active from 08N to 10N between 110W and 115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong gap winds are increasing in the Tehuantepec 
region. Otherwise, a surface ridge, anchored by 1019 mb high 
pressure near 28N121W west of Punta Eugenia, is supporting gentle
to locally moderate breezes and moderate combined seas primarily
NW swell across open waters, with slight seas over the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds across the Tehuantepec 
area will increase to near gale-force by tonight, with these 
winds and rough to very rough seas prevailing into Wed. Winds and
seas will then diminish, but similar conditions will develop 
starting Fri. Gales are possible Fri night and again late this 
weekend as a series of cold front moves through the western Gulf 
of Mexico. Farther north, a surface ridge will remain in place 
throughout the week to support gentle to moderate NW to N winds 
across the Baja California offshore waters. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

SW swell of 6 to 8 ft is moving through the offshore waters of 
Ecuador and Colombia, toward the waters off western Panama and 
Costa Rica. Gentle to moderate SW winds persist south of the 
monsoon trough, and light to gentle breezes prevail north of the 
monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, light winds will prevail N of the monsoon 
trough, except for occasional pulses of gentle to moderate gap 
winds in the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds 
will prevail south of the monsoon trough. NE swell from gap winds
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will support combined seas to 8 ft 
off Guatemala through late Wed. Elsewhere, cross equatorial SW 
swell is moving into the regional waters, supporting wave heights
to 8 ft from Ecuador to Costa Rica and western Panama through 
Wed, subsiding thereafter.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weak ridging extends across the waters north of 15N, anchored by
1019 mb high pressure near 28N121W. Moderate to fresh SW winds 
are noted over the waters north of 25N and west of 135W, between 
the high pressure and the low pressure to the northwest. Seas are
7 to 9 ft in this area. The relatively weak ridge is supporting 
gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere across the region. Combined 
seas are 6 to 9 ft primarily in southerly swell south of 10N and
east of 130W, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere.

Low pressure just NW of the region will slowly move ESE through 
the middle of the week, as a cold front forms southward from the 
low. Despite this, a relaxed pressure gradient will keep winds 
mainly moderate or less as well as seas below 8 ft through the 
week.

$$
Christensen