053 
AXPZ20 KNHC 140227
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Mar 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of California Gale Warning: A cold front from 31N113W to 
23N124W will move SE through the waters through late Fri. Gales 
are expected in the far northern Gulf of California tonight. 
Winds are expected to quickly diminish below gale force Fri 
morning. 

Significant Swell: Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft extend
behind a cold front N and W of a line from 30N118W to 24N130W to
24N140W. Peak seas of 15 to 17 ft are along 30N between 122W and
127W. These seas will propagate SE and E Fri while gradually
subsiding, and fall below 12 ft by Fri afternoon. Seas will
continue to diminish below 8 ft from west to east this weekend.
 
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure in northwest 
Colombia southwestward to 09N84W to 02N104W. The ITCZ continues 
from 02N104W to beyond 06S140W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted south of 07N and E of 100W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features Section for details on the Gale Warning
in the Gulf of California and the Significant Swell impacting 
the waters offshore of Baja California.

A cold front from 31N113W to 23N124W will move SE through the 
waters through late Fri. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are 
north of 27N behind the cold front, and moderate to locally fresh
SW to W winds ahead of the front. Rough seas are expanding 
farther south and east across the Baja California Norte waters, 
with peak seas of 12 to 14 ft noted north of 29N and west of 
121W. In the Gulf of California, strong SW winds prevail. 
Elsewhere, a 1013 mb low has been analyzed offshore of Colima 
near 18N105W. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 
to 7 ft prevail offshore of southwestern Mexico. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds will occur offshore 
Baja California Norte into Fri. Rough seas associated with the
aforementioned cold front will propagate southeastward through 
the weekend, reaching offshore of southwestern Mexico by early 
Sat. Peak seas of 12 to 13 ft will impact areas north of Punta 
Eugenia through Fri morning. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to 
locally fresh N to NW winds will continue offshore Cabo 
Corrientes to offshore of Baja California Sur through tonight, 
before more widespread fresh to locally strong winds develop Fri 
morning as the cold front moves southeastward. Looking ahead, 
gale force winds will be possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun 
night into early next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to locally moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in S to 
SW swell prevail across the the region. Convection in the area is
associated with the monsoon trough and described in the above
section.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas will prevail across the waters through this 
weekend. Pulsing fresh to locally strong winds look to redevelop 
in the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama early next week. 
Elsewhere, rough seas generated by gale force winds in the Gulf 
of Tehunatepec will impact areas well offshore Guatemala early 
next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

See the Special Features Section for details on the Significant 
Swell that is currently impacting the waters north of 24N.

A cold front moving through the northern waters extends from
31N113W to 22N128W, and fresh strong N winds are occurring in 
the wake of the front, generally to the east of 127W. Outside the
significant swell as described above under Special Features, 
rough seas associated with the cold front are progressing 
southeastward, with seas in excess of 8 ft noted in the wake of 
the front. Elsewhere, broad ridging covers much of the open 
waters, extending from a 1031 mb high centered near 28N149W. 
Fresh NE winds are occurring along the periphery of the ridge, 
from north of the ITCZ to 20N, generally west of 115W. Seas of 8 
to 10 ft are noted in this region, with the highest seas 
occurring near 10N140W. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate 
winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail across the remainder of the 
waters.. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will progress 
southeastward through late Fri, producing fresh NW winds and
rough seas behind it. Farther south, moderate to fresh trade 
winds and rough seas of 8 to 10 ft will prevail from 05N to 20N 
and west of 115W through this weekend as high pressure drifts 
eastward. Locally strong winds and seas to 11 ft are possible 
west of 135W through Fri. Looking ahead, another cold front is 
slated to move into the northwestern waters this weekend, 
producing fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and rough to very
rough seas in the wake of the front north of 25N and west of 
125W through Mon.

$$
Konarik