913 
AXPZ20 KNHC 192119
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Apr 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2055 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from southern Costa Rica near 08N83W
to 06N99W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N99W to 06N120W and beyond
04N140W. A second ITCZ extends from 01S119W to 04S140W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 10N
and east of 122W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A robust subtropical ridge centered over the North Pacific
extends southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to
locally fresh northerly winds and moderate seas are noted across
the offshore waters of Baja California. The strongest winds and 
highest seas are occurring in the waters south of Cabo San 
Lazaro. Gentle to moderate NW winds and seas of 2-4 ft are
evident in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas are present in the remainder of
the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the area through
the forecast period. Localized fresh NW winds will pulse in the 
central and southern Gulf of California and off Baja California 
tonight into Sun morning. Elsewhere, pulsing fresh to strong NW 
winds are expected offshore of southwestern Mexico near Jalisco 
through Guerrero into early next week. Otherwise, gentle to 
moderate NW winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail over 
the remainder of the waters through the middle of next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to affect the
waters off Colombia and Panama. Meanwhile, a 1031 mb high
pressure system centered near Bermuda continues to force fresh 
to strong easterly trade winds across the Gulf of Papagayo 
region, extending westward to 90W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 
ft. Moderate northerly winds and moderate seas are noted in the 
Gulf of Panama, extending southward to 04N. Elsewhere, moderate 
or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force E winds will pulse 
in the Gulf of Papagayo tonight, and locally rough seas will 
accompany these winds. Fresh to strong E winds are then expected 
each night and morning in this region through the middle of next 
week. Moderate to fresh winds will likely extend through the 
waters well offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala this weekend. 
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh to N winds will occur tonight in 
the Gulf of Panama, decreasing to light to gentle speeds 
thereafter. Looking ahead, a new long- period S to SW swell will 
propagate through the regional waters early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A 1042 mb high pressure system located well north of the tropical
eastern Pacific continues to influence the basin, supporting moderate
to occasionally strong easterly trade winds from the ITCZ to 21N
and west of 120W. This was confirmed in a recent scatterometer 
satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will occur north
of the ITCZ through the middle of next week as ridging prevails 
over the eastern Pacific waters. A short-period, wind-generated 
E swell will promote rough seas in this region through early next
week. Northerly swell to 8 ft will approach the northern waters
Sun into early next week before retreating. Looking ahead, a 
long-period Southern Hemisphere swell will progress through the 
southern waters late next week.

$$
Delgado