000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212133
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Apr 21 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2125 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of southern Costa Rica
near 08N83W and continues to 07N100W. The ITCZ stretches from
07N100W to 06N120W and beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 09N and east
of 95W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 02N to
12N and 97W and 132W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A weak pressure gradient across the Baja California offshore
waters result in gentle to moderate northerly winds and moderate
seas. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are noted
in the Gulf of California. Locally fresh winds are present off
Cabo Corrientes, along with seas of 4-6 ft. In the rest of the
Mexican offshore waters, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas prevail.
For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the region over the
next several days, supporting gentle to moderate N winds and
slight to moderate seas over the Baja California and SW Mexican
offshore waters through Fri, except for fresh to locally strong NW
winds pulsing near Jalisco tonight. Moderate to fresh N winds
will pulse in Tehuantepec tonight into Tue. Otherwise, moderate
SW winds are forecast at night in the northern Gulf of California
today through Thu as a surface trough developing inland Baja
California Norte shift eastwards over the Gulf waters. Looking
ahead, NW winds along the Baja California offshore waters are
forecast to freshen Fri night.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to affect
the offshore waters of Panama, Costa Rica and northern Colombia.
Gusty winds and rough seas are likely with the strongest
convection. Elsewhere, a strong ridge over the western Atlantic
continues to force fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds
in the Gulf of Papagayo region, reaching downstream to 88W. Seas
in these waters are 5-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas are prevalent elsewhere.
For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and moderate seas are
expected to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu morning.
Afterward, moderate to fresh winds will pulse through the weekend.
Moderate winds from this gap event will extend to the offshore
waters of El Salvador and Guatemala today through Thu. Gentle to
locally moderate southerly winds are forecast between Ecuador and
the Galapagos Islands through Fri night. Looking ahead,
southerly swell will reach the southern Galapagos Islands Fri
night with seas to 8 ft.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....
A 1040 mb high pressure system located well north of the
tropical eastern Pacific continues to influence the basin,
supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds from the ITCZ
to 20N and west of 120W. This was confirmed in a recent
scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. In
the far NW corner, a shear line is analyzed along 29N and west of
130W. The pressure gradient between this boundary and the
aforementioned ridge result in moderate to fresh NE winds and
seas of 6-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent elsewhere.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue across
the tropical Pacific waters W of 120W through the forecast
period, as surface ridging will continue to extend across the
eastern Pacific subtropical waters. Seas will be moderate to
rough over these waters. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas to 8
ft will continue through Tue morning North of 29N and West of
130W as the shear line weakens. Elsewhere north of 20N, gentle
to locally moderate NE to E winds and moderate seas will prevail,
increasing to moderate to fresh speeds over the western waters
late Fri into Fri evening. Looking ahead, southerly swell will
support rough seas to 8 ft south of 03N beginning late Fri.
$$
Delgado