824 
AXPZ20 KNHC 230850
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Mar 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 1008 mb low pressure located over 
northern Colombia near 09.5N74.5W to 01N84W. The ITCZ extends 
from 04.5N91W to 02N104W to 05N123W where it then becomes ill 
defined in a zone of active convection. Scattered moderate to 
strong convection continues to flare from 03S to 07N east of 82.5W
to the coasts. Scattered moderate convection dots the area from 
04.5S to 04.5N between 85W and 107W. Scattered to locally
numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 06.5S to 
09.5N between 119W and 141W.

As is normal for this time of the year, a second ITCZ is noted S
of the equator W of 128W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge centered on 1026 mb high pressure located W of the
area near 33N134W extends southeastward to just beyond the 
Revillagigedo Islands. This ridge dominates the offshore waters 
of Baja California and southwestern Mexico, and supports gentle 
to moderate northwest winds. Seas of 7 to 10 ft in NW swell 
continue across the waters N of Punta Eugenia, extending offshore
well beyond 120W. Across the remaining Baja offshore waters seas
are 5 to 8 ft. In the Gulf of California, light and variable 
winds continue with seas generally 1 to 3 ft, except 3 to 4 ft 
near the entrance to the Gulf. Moderate NW to N winds continues 
across the nearshore waters surrounding Cabo Corrientes. 
Elsewhere across the offshore Mexican waters light and variable 
winds and moderate seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed NW and SW swell 
prevail.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place across the
offshore waters of Baja California over the next several days,
gradually weakening tonight through Wed. This pattern will 
produce gentle to moderate NW winds across the Baja waters 
through Wed, except for fresh winds across the waters NW and W 
of Isla Guadalupe today. Seas in the 7 to 10 ft range will 
continue across the waters N of Punta Eugenia and far outer 
waters of central Baja through late Mon before subsiding. In the
Gulf of California, light to gentle winds and slight seas are 
forecast through at least early next week. Moderate NW winds are 
expected to pulse to fresh speeds near Cabo Corrientes during 
the late afternoon and evening hours today into Tue. Looking 
ahead, fresh to strong northerly winds are expected to return to 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec region by Tue night through Thu morning. 
High pressure will strengthen across the Baja waters Thu leading 
to increasing winds and seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A relatively tight pressure gradient continues across the western
Caribbean and Central America, directly south of high pressure 
centered across the NE Gulf of America. This pattern has 
promoted a significant offshore gap wind event across much of 
Central America, but is slowly beginning to abate and now covers
the area from the Gulf of Panama to central Nicaragua. Overnight
satellite scatterometer wind data showed moderate to fresh to 
strong E winds extending offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo and
southern Nicaragua downwind to 96W. Seas generated in this broad
plume of winds is merging with northerly swell from a recent 
Tehuantepec gap wind event to produce moderate to rough seas to 
9 ft within this area of winds. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds 
are also funneling into the Gulf of Panama from the south-central
Caribbean, extending southward to 06N. Moderate seas of 4 to 7 
ft prevail there. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere with slight
to moderate seas primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will continue to 
support a significant gap wind event across the region, from the 
Gulf of Panama to Papagayo and central Nicaragua through late 
this morning. High pressure will then shift slowly eastward, 
allowing winds and seas to gradually diminish across the regional
waters through Thu. However, fresh to strong winds and moderate 
to rough seas are expected to continue to pulse across the 
Papagayo region E of 88W through next week. Merging seas 
generated in the gap wind areas of Tehuantepec and Papagayo will 
continue to impact the outer waters of Guatemala, El Salvador and
Nicaragua through this morning. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A 1026 mb high center is located just north of the area near
33N134W. This is producing a broad east to west oriented ridge 
across the region, and dominates most of the waters N of 04N and 
W of 112W. The pressure gradient between this system and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ region is resulting in 
moderate to locally fresh trades from 04N to 26N W of 122W. Seas
of 6 to 9 ft prevail in this area in mixed NE and NW swell. 
Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the 
remainder of the area N of 26N and west of 112W. Moderate to 
locally fresh trade winds prevail from 05N to 11N east of 102W. 
Seas of 7 to 9 ft are occurring in this area mainly between 93W 
and 102W in a broad mix of swell. Winds are gentle to moderate 
elsewhere with moderate seas. Scattered convection remains active
across the tropical waters from the equator to 09.5N between 119W
and 141W, as an upper trough approaches the area from the NW.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in control of the 
weather pattern across most of the waters N of the ITCZ and W of 
110W through Tue, while drifting NE and weakening. This pattern  
will producing moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 
25N, and mainly gentle to moderate winds north of 25N. New NW 
swell entering the NW forecast waters tonight will maintain seas
to around 8 ft and higher N of 15N and west of about 128W 
through Sun night. Active convection is expected to continue 
across the tropical waters between 120W and 130W through Mon. A 
weakening cold front will enter the northwest part of the area 
Tue night followed by moderate to fresh NW winds, and additional 
pulses of large NW swell.

$$
Stripling