528 
AXPZ20 KNHC 040249
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Feb 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 04N94W to 04N103W. The
ITCZ extends from 04N103W to 08.5N123W to beyond 06.5N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N east of 
93W to coastal Colombia, from 04N to 08N between 108W and 118W, 
and from 07N to 12.5N between 118W and 132W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extending across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre 
Mountains in eastern Mexico is supporting fresh to strong N to NE
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec to about 90 nm downstream. 
Rough seas to 7 ft accompany the strong winds in this area. 
Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, the current pattern
is dominated by weak 1016 mb high pressure centered west of Baja
California Sur near 23N125W. The associated ridge is supporting 
gentle to moderate NW breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas, except for
fresh NW winds near the coast of Cabo Corrientes, where seas are
5 to 6 ft. Light breezes and 1 to 2 ft seas prevail inside the 
Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will persist through Wed, then mainly moderate to 
fresh winds are expected there into Fri, with seas subsiding 
gradually. Weak high pressure centered west of Baja California
Sur will shift slowly westward and weaken further through Tue, 
ahead of a frontal system moving across the waters west of 130W 
tonight. The front will move into the waters off Baja California 
Norte Wed night, then stall and become diffuse. Looking ahead, a 
stronger front will follow and move into waters off Baja 
California Norte by early Fri, then stall across the central Gulf
of California and Baja California by late Sat, followed by fresh
to strong NW winds and rough seas. Farther south, fresh to 
strong N gap winds will pulse Thu night into Sat across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec, associated with a weak front moving into 
southern Mexico. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the region is enhancing trade flow across
the southwest Caribbean and southern Central America, resulting
in persistent gap winds across the Papagayo region to NW Nicaraguan
offshore waters. Midday satellite scatterometer data showed a 
plume of fresh to strong NE to E gap winds persisting across this
region, along with 6 to 8 ft seas extends as far west as 93W. 
Moderate to fresh N winds persist across the Gulf of Panama 
extending southward to 05N, with 5 to 6 ft seas. Farther north, 
seas are 6 to 8 ft well offshore of Guatemala due to lingering N
swell from an ongoing gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
and NE swell spreading away from Papagayo. Gentle breezes 
persist elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas in southerly swell.

For the forecast, a modest high pressure will prevail north of 
the region across the Gulf of Mexico through the upcoming week. 
This pattern will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong NE 
to E gap winds across the Papagayo region through the middle of 
the week. Peak seas will build to around 8 ft downstream each 
late night through morning. Moderate to fresh N winds will 
persist across the Gulf of Panama through Tue morning, then
diminish to moderate throughout the remainder of the week. Rough
seas generated in the gap wind areas of Tehuantepec and Papagayo
will continue to impact the outer offshore waters of Guatemala 
and El Salvador through late Tue. Moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 30N130.5W to 20N140W. Fresh S to SW 
winds are within 300 nm east of the front and north of 25N, where
seas are 7 to 9 ft. A 999 mb low pressure center associated with
the next front to approach the area has moved eastward to near
32.5N138W. Fresh to strong W winds and 10 to 15 ft seas prevail
to the south of the low, and across the NW waters west of 135W
and north of 24N. The weak 1016 mb high pressure near 23N125W is
drifting eastward ahead of the front. Farther south, scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are active from 07N to 12.5N between
118W and 132W. This is due in part to trade wind convergence 
into the ITCZ, and divergent flow aloft to the east of a 
mid/upper level low centered above the ITCZ near 125W. Outside 
of the winds and seas already described near the cold front, 
gentle breezes persist across the area except for moderate trade 
winds north of the ITCZ to 15N. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft, 
except pushing 8 ft in the trade wind zones west of 138W.

For the forecast, the cold front will stall and dissipate north
of 22N and west of 125W on Tue, ahead of a second front passing 
to the southeast of 30N140W. The eastern portion of the front will
move toward Baja California before stalling and becoming diffuse
into Thu. The western half of the second front will stall E to W 
along 28N Wed before lifting northward Wed night, ahead of a 
third front that will move to the southeast of 30N140W by early 
Thu. The third front will move into Baja California Fri, then 
stall and dissipate through Sat. Fresh to occasionally strong 
winds will accompany the front Thu, along with NW swell of 8 to 
10 ft. Farther to the southeast, seas will build north of the 
ITCZ east of 110W through early Wed due fresh trade winds, and 
southerly swell mixing with shorter period NE to E swell, 
originating from the gap winds over Papagayo and Tehuantepec. 
Looking ahead, trade winds and seas will build along and north of
the ITCZ west of 120W Thu through Sat in response to high 
pressure building north of the area. 

$$
Stripling