718 
AXPZ20 KNHC 310405
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Mar 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends westward from near the Panama-Colombia 
border across 11N88W to 06N100W. An ITCZ then continues 
southwestward from 06N100W across 03N124W to beyond 01S140W. 
Widely scattered moderate convection is seen near the trough from
01N to 08N between 77W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection 
is occurring near and up to 200 NM north of ITCZ between 104W and
130W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1020 mb high 
near 25N127W to south of Cabo Corrientes. This feature is
supporting NW to N winds at moderate to fresh west of Baja 
California, and at gentle to moderate near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. Seas at the above locations are from 6 to 9 ft in residual
long-period NW swell. Gentle to locally moderate NW to N to ENE 
winds along with seas of 5 to 8 ft are seen off southern Mexico. 
Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 4 ft are over the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, persistent high pressure over the eastern 
Pacific will support moderate to fresh with occasionally strong 
NW to N winds across the Baja California offshore waters through 
Tue. These winds are expected to become fresh to strong Tue night
through Wed, then decrease to moderate by Thu. Residual long- 
period NW swell should maintain rough to very rough seas off Baja
California and near the Revillagigedo Islands through Mon 
morning, then gradually subside from north to south Mon afternoon
and night. Winds at the northern and central Gulf of California 
are expected to increase and reach fresh to strong Tue evening 
through Wed morning. Winds at the northern Gulf of California may
peak at near-gale force late Tue night and early Wed morning. In
the long term, A new set of NW swell is forecast to arrive by 
Tue night, bringing more rough to very rough seas off Baja 
California through Thu. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate easterly winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted in the 
Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of
3 to 5 ft due to long-period SW swell are in the Gulf of Panama.
Light to gentle winds along with seas of 4 to 6 ft due to mixed 
NW and SW swell remain over the rest of the offshore waters. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate with occasionally fresh 
easterly winds are anticipated in the Gulf of Papagayo through 
Thu, then become fresh to strong Thu night through Fri night. 
Northerly winds at the Gulf of Panama will stay at gentle to 
moderate thru Fri. Predominately long-period SW swell should keep
moderate to rough seas near the Galapagos Islands and off 
Ecuador for the next several days. Elsewhere, light to gentle 
winds and moderate seas will continue for most of the week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A cold front curves southwestward from off the California coast
across 30N135W to beyond 27N140W. Moderate NW to SW winds and 
patchy rain are seen up to 50 nm along either side of this 
boundary. Farther south, a broad surface ridge extends 
southeastward from a 1020 mb high near 25N127W to south of Cabo 
Corrientes. The gradient between the ridge and relatively lower 
pressure near the ITCZ is allowing for moderate to fresh trades 
to exist from 03N to 18N west of about 116W. Seas with these 
trades are 8 to 11 ft in long-period NW to N swell. To the north 
of these trades near the ridge and high center, winds are gentle 
to light in anticyclonic fashion. Seas over this part of the area
are 5 to 7 ft in long-period NW to N swell. South of the ITCZ 
and trough, generally gentle to light east to southeast winds are
noted, with seas of 6 to 8 ft in long-period NW to N swell west 
of 115W, and in merging NW and SW swell east of 115W. 
 
For the forecast, the aforementioned long-period NW to N swell 
will continue to decay through Mon, and the cold front will also
weaken through Mon. As a result, the 8 to 11 ft seas will 
subside to 8 to 9 ft over the central and western sections of the
area from 04N to 16N west of about 107W. Winds near the 
weakening cold front will also decrease to gentle by late morning
on Mon. A new set of long-period NW swell is forecast to bump up
the wave heights to 8 to 11 ft north of 27N west of 118W from 
Tue through Wed night. Little change is expected elsewhere 
through Wed night.

$$

Chan