000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310828
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Mar 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends westward from near the Panama-Colombia 
border to 08N90W. An ITCZ then continues southwestward from 
08N90W across 03N120W to beyond 01S140W. Widely scattered 
moderate convection is seen near both features from 01N to 09N 
between 77W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring 
near and up to 240 NM north of ITCZ between 105W and 127W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1022 mb high
near 25N129W to south of Cabo Corrientes. This feature is 
supporting NW to N winds at moderate to fresh west of Baja 
California, and at gentle to moderate near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. Seas at the above locations are from 6 to 9 ft in 
residual long-period NW swell. Gentle to locally moderate NW to N
to E winds along with seas of 5 to 8 ft are seen off southern 
Mexico. Light to gentle winds are evident at the northern Gulf of
California, while gentle to moderate NW winds are noted for the
rest of the Gulf. Seas across the entire Gulf range from 1 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, persistent high pressure over the eastern 
Pacific will support moderate to fresh with occasionally strong 
NW to N winds across the Baja California offshore waters through 
Tue. These winds are expected to become fresh to strong Tue night
through Wed, then decrease to moderate by Thu. Residual long- 
period NW swell should maintain rough to very rough seas off Baja
California and near the Revillagigedo Islands through this 
morning, then gradually subside from north to south this 
afternoon and tonight. Winds at the northern and central Gulf of 
California are expected to increase and reach fresh to strong Tue
evening through Wed morning, winds at the northern Gulf may peak
at near- gale force late Tue night and early Wed morning. In the
long term, A new set of large NW swell is forecast to arrive by 
Tue night, bringing more rough to very rough seas off Baja 
California through Thu. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate easterly winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft are noted in the 
Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 
3 to 5 ft due to long-period SW swell are in the Gulf of Panama. 
Light to gentle winds along with seas of 4 to 6 ft due to mixed 
NW and SW swell remain over the rest of the offshore waters. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate with occasionally fresh 
easterly winds are anticipated in the Gulf of Papagayo through 
Thu, then become fresh to strong Thu night through Fri night. 
Northerly winds at the Gulf of Panama will stay at gentle to 
moderate thru Fri. A mix of long-period NW and SW swells should 
keep moderate to rough seas near the Galapagos Islands and off 
Ecuador for the next several days. Elsewhere, light to gentle 
winds and moderate seas will continue for most of the week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A cold front curves southwestward from off the California coast
across 30N126W to beyond 27N140W. Moderate NW to SW winds with  
patchy rain and 5 to 7 ft seas are seen up to 50 nm along either
side of this boundary. Farther south, a broad surface ridge 
extends southeastward from a 1022 mb high near 25N129W to south 
of Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft
in residual long-period NW to N swell are present from 20N to 
near 28N west of 120W. The gradient between the high and 
relatively lower pressure near the ITCZ is sustaining moderate 
to fresh NE to ENE trades and seas at 7 to 9 ft in long-period NW
to N swell from the ITCZ to 20N and west of 117W. North of the 
ITCZ/surface trough and east of 117W, gentle to moderate NE to SE
winds with 5 to 8 ft seas in moderate NW swell exist. South of 
the ITCZ and trough, light to gentle winds with seas of 6 to 8 ft
in mixed moderate, long-period swells prevail.
 
For the forecast, the aforementioned long-period NW to N swell 
will continue to decay through Tue, allowing seas from the ITCZ
to 20N to drop to between 6 and 8 ft by Tue night. At the same
time, a new set of large NW swell is forecast to elevate seas to
between 8 to 11 ft north of 27N and east of 131W. N winds in the
same general area will also become fresh to locally strong Tue
night through Wed. This swell will migrate southward to near 22N
on Wed evening. Little change is expected elsewhere through Wed 
night.

$$

Chan