000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261433
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Dec 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant NW swell: A series of low pressure systems will
continue to rotate across the waters north of 30N with 
associated cold fronts occasionally pushing south of 30N. These 
low pressure systems will send several rounds of large NW swell 
that will propagate into the area through the remainder of the 
week and into the weekend. Currently, seas of 12 ft or greater 
are confined to the waters offshore Baja California Norte north 
of 26N between 117W and 124W. Reinforcing swell with seas of 12 
ft or greater will move across the waters mainly north of 18N
Fri into the upcoming weekend. Please see the latest NWS High 
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 05N96W to 06.5N104W. 
The ITCZ extends from 06.5N104W to 07N110W to beyond 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 
121W and 125W, and from 06N to 13N between 132W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features Section on significant NW swells
that will impact the waters offshore Baja California through the 
remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

A ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure is near 29N131W to
the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this
area of high pressure and a trough over the Gulf of California is
supporting fresh to strong NW-N winds well offshore Baja 
California from Punta Eugenia northward to the Channel Islands of
California, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere offshore Baja
California. Gentle to moderate prevail across the remainder of 
the open waters offshore Mexico. Seas are mainly 8 ft or greater
across the offshore waters, except 4 to 7 ft from southern 
Mexico from Chiapas and Tehuantepec just southwestward. Seas are 
3 ft or less in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, high pressure west of the area will maintain
moderate northerly winds pulsing to fresh from Cabo San Lazaro
northward through early Sat, with gentle to moderate winds
across the remainder of the open waters. Fresh to strong winds
may return offshore Baja California Norte early next week. Fresh
to strong N winds may briefly pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
Sun evening. Several rounds of significant NW swell will impact
most waters through the next several days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh NE gap winds prevail in the Papagayo 
region, where seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range. Gentle to locally
moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, 
along with seas of 4 to 7 ft in NW swell, locally to 8 ft well 
offshore Guatemala. South of the monsoon trough, moderate S to 
SW winds prevail, along with seas of 4 to 7 ft in NW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds will pulse in the
Papagayo region through the next several days. Moderate to
locally fresh winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough
through at least the end of the week, with gentle to moderate
winds across the remainder of the area. Seas will build slightly
through the end of the week as NW swell moves into the regional
waters, decaying into the upcoming weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section about NW swells 
propagating across the majority of the waters through the next 
several days.

A 1026 mb high is centered near 29N131W. Light to gentle 
anticyclonic winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Moderate
to fresh winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of 120W,
except fresh to strong just north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of
130W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of 
the open waters, including south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. 
Aside from the large swell discussed above, seas are mainly in 
the 6 to 8 ft range east of 92W.

For the forecast, other than the large NW swells discussed in 
the Special Features section, little change in winds are 
forecast over the next several days. The pressure gradient over 
the western waters will support fresh to strong trade winds just
north of the ITCZ and W of 130W today. Meanwhile, seas of 8 ft 
or greater will spread SE and cover most of the waters west of 
roughly 90W into the end of the week before decaying.

$$
AL