000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011519
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Apr 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1450 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends westward from near the Panama-Colombia 
border to at 07.5N78W to 06N83W to 09N88W to 03.5N113W. The ITCZ
extends from 03.5N113W to 00N120W, continuing west-southwestward
south of the discussion waters. A second ITCZ is analyzed along
03.4S between 94W and 119W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 06N to 09N between 81W and 84W, from 05N to 09N
between 99W and 104W, and south of the Equator between 96W and
118W or so.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1028 mb high
near 33N137W to just south of the Revillagigedo Islands. This
feature is supporting moderate to fresh NW to N winds and seas at
6 to 7 ft in residual NW swell west of 110W and Baja California,
locally fresh to strong nearshore from Cabo San Lazaro northward.
Moderate or weaker winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in old, mixed SW and
NW swell dominate the offshore waters of southwest and southern 
Mexico. Gentle to moderate northerly winds with seas of 3 ft or
less prevail across the Gulf of California, except moderate to
fresh north of 31N near the northern coast.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW to N winds near the Baja 
California coast will persist and expand westward through Wed 
morning, then diminish to moderate on Thu, locally fresh
nearshore. Winds in the northern and central Gulf of California 
are expected to increase and reach fresh to strong this evening 
through Wed evening, which could peak at near-gale force at the 
northern Gulf late tonight into early Wed morning. A new set of 
NW swell producing rough to very rough seas will propagate 
southward through the Baja California offshore waters tonight 
through late Thu. Marine conditions are anticipated to be quite
tranquil afterward.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Convergent surface winds are triggering scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms off the coast of Guatemala and El
Salvador, as well as off southern Costa Rica. Localized fresh to
strong easterly winds are present at the immediate Gulf of 
Papagayo, while moderate northerly winds are evident in the Gulf 
of Panama per a recent ASCAT scatterometer pass there. Light to 
gentle winds prevail for the remainder of the offshore waters. 
Seas across all offshore waters range from 3 to 6 ft in a mix of 
SW and NW swells, locally to 7 ft southwest of the Galapagos
Islands.

For the forecast, localized fresh to strong winds will pulse in
the immediate Gulf of Papagayo through at least Sat night, mainly
at night and in the early morning. Gentle to moderate northerly
winds with occasionally fresh speeds are expected at the Gulf of
Panama through Wed night. A mix of SW and NW swells will keep 
moderate seas near the Galapagos Islands and off Ecuador for the 
next several days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A surface trough curves west-northwestward from 27N123W to 
28N135W. Patchy showers are seen up to 120 nm along either side 
of this feature. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extends 
southeastward from a 1028 mb high near 33N137W to just south of 
the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle to moderate N to ENE to ESE 
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident north of 20N and west of 
120W, except beginning to build to around 7 ft along 30N to the
west of 125W. A tighter gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ 
is sustaining moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and 6 to 9 ft 
seas in a mix of long-period northerly and southerly swells from
03N to 20N and west of 120W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker
across the remainder of the waters, with 6 to 8 ft seas, except 4
to 6 ft east of 94W. Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for
weather in the area of an elongated surface trough and ITCZ.

For the forecast, the high and ridge will not move much through
the next week days, maintaining moderate to fresh trades over the
same area and 7 to 10 ft seas, with similar winds north of 16N 
between 115W and 125W. Seas will build to 7 to 10 ft in NW to N 
swell over the north-central waters tonight through Thu. Little 
change is expected elsewhere through Sat over the open Pacific 
waters. Looking ahead, a set of large NW swell may moves 
southeast of 30N140W later in the upcoming weekend, with seas of 
at least 12 ft near 30N140W by early Sun.

$$
Lewitsky