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Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Kiko hasn't changed much over the past 6 hours. Microwave imagery
continues to show a fairly well-defined inner-core, but cloud tops
have been warming during the past few hours. Satellite-based
estimates continue to hover around 50 kt, and the estimated
intensity is therefore held at that value.

Kiko has turned to the northwest yet again, and should turn westward
later today. There is no change in the forecast reasoning. Kiko will
likely move on a wave-like path westward for the next several days,
losing latitude as a mid-level ridge to the north amplifies, and
gaining latitude as the ridge weakens. The only difference in the
NHC forecast is that Kiko is forecast to move very slightly faster
than it was before. It should be noted that there is still a decent
amount of spread in the guidance regarding how quickly Kiko will
move west even though the multi-model consensus, which is the basis
for the NHC forecast, has not changed much.

The tropical storm may have exhausted its opportunity to strengthen
now that it has begun to turn back westward, and all of the
reliable intensity guidance forecasts that Kiko will slowly weaken.
The NHC forecast shows the same, but maintains Kiko as a tropical
storm, still over the eastern North Pacific, through day 5. Kiko is
a small tropical cyclone, and small short-term fluctuations in
intensity are certainly possible during the next few days, but
anticipating such fluctuations is beyond the current science of
hurricane forecasting.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 17.9N 130.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 18.2N 131.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 18.1N 132.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 17.5N 133.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 16.9N 134.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  23/1800Z 16.5N 136.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  24/1800Z 18.2N 137.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  25/1800Z 18.5N 139.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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