ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032021
800 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021
 
After being nearly devoid of deep convection for much of the night, 
a new burst of convection has redeveloped near the center of the 
cyclone's circulation. A blend of the latest Dvorak T-numbers from 
TAFB and SAB support maintaining an initial intensity of 35 kt for 
this advisory.

Carlos is moving west-southwest at 7 kt, steered by a low- to 
mid-level ridge to its north. Most of the track guidance is now in 
good agreement on keeping this ridge intact over the next several 
days, forcing Carlos on the same west-southwest trajectory for the 
next day or so, followed by a gradual turn to the west by midweek. 
The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one through 48 h, 
and a little faster and south of it beyond that time. Most guidance 
remains to the left of the latest NHC forecast, so additional 
adjustments may be required later today. 
 
Satellite images show a vast area of dry and stable air to the north 
and west of Carlos, with stratocumulus being drawn into the western 
portion of the cyclone's circulation. This undoubtedly helped to 
contribute to the sputtering of convective activity overnight. The 
ongoing intrusions of dry, stable air should continue to 
periodically disrupt the development of deep convection over the 
next day or so, which should cause Carlos to slowly weaken.  By 
36-48 h, southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 20 kt is 
expected to hasten the weakening process, resulting in Carlos 
degenerating into a remnant low by midweek. Thereafter, only 
sporadic convection is expected to develop in association with the 
remnant low as it gradually spins down. The latest NHC intensity 
forecast is nearly the same as the previous one and is in agreement 
with the bulk of the guidance.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/1500Z 11.3N 128.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 10.9N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 10.6N 130.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 10.3N 132.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 10.2N 133.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  17/0000Z 10.2N 134.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/1200Z 10.3N 135.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/1200Z 10.7N 137.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1200Z 11.1N 139.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
NNNN