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Hurricane Rick Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021
 
Rick continues to hold its own, with little change in overall 
organization over the past 18 to 24 hours.  There is still no eye 
evident in satellite images, and earlier microwave images revealed 
that the eyewall underneath the cirrus canopy is open on the eastern 
side.  There is a large amount of spread in the various objective 
and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates, which range from 60 kt to 
90 kt. Since Rick does not look any better or worse than 6 hours 
ago, the difference between these estimates is split down the 
middle, and the initial advisory intensity remains 75 kt.  Based on 
data from a 1656 UTC ASCAT-B overpass, winds of tropical storm force 
were only 30 n mi from the coast of southwestern Mexico.

A recent ASCAT-B overpass helped to verify the position of the 
center of Rick, and the system has been moving a little slower and 
to the right of what was previously thought.  The initial motion is 
therefore set at 360/04 kt. Rick continues to move in the direction 
of a weakness in the subtropical ridge.  Most of the model guidance 
suggest the ridge may begin to fill in slightly to the northeast of 
the cyclone as early as tonight, which would cause the hurricane to 
turn north-northwestward along with a slight increase in forward 
speed.  The only notable change to the NHC track forecast was a 
slightly slower motion in the short term. Otherwise, the track is 
very close to the multimodel consensus solutions. 
 
Rick has been unable to take advantage of the favorable environment 
for strengthening over the past 24 hours, and the hurricane is about 
out of time to intensify any further.  The UW-CIMMS shear analysis 
shows 15 to 20 kt of vertical wind shear between Rick and 
the coast of Mexico, and 400-700 mb relative humidity of only about 
50 percent. Therefore, it is becoming less likely that Rick will 
undergo any significant strengthening before landfall.  The latest 
NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, but remains 
on the high end of the guidance.  After landfall, the cyclone will 
weaken rapidly and the system may dissipate sooner than shown in 
this forecast.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Rick is forecast to reach the coast of southern Mexico Monday 
morning, bringing life-threatening storm surge and dangerous 
hurricane-force winds within a portion of the Hurricane Warning area 
from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo.  Residents in this area 
should follow any advice given by local officials.
 
2. Rick is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions 
of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico beginning within 
the next couple of hours from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, 
and by Monday morning from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, 
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
 
3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to spread across 
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through tonight, and 
could persist through Tuesday.  This rainfall will likely produce 
flash flooding and mudslides.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 16.3N 101.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 17.1N 101.9W   80 KT  90 MPH...NEAR COAST
 24H  25/1800Z 18.4N 102.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 36H  26/0600Z 19.6N 103.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch
 
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