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Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
800 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022
Estelle remains quite disorganized this morning, with most of the
fragmented convection over the eastern semicircle of the
circulation. The storm center passed just north of Clarion Island
where an automated Mexican Navy weather station measured winds near
tropical-storm-force strength. The central pressure of Estelle was
adjusted slightly lower based on the reported observations. Dvorak
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB ranged from 65 kt to 45 kt,
respectively and the initial intensity is held at 55 kt to represent
a blend of the classifications.
A gradual weakening trend is expected to continue through the
forecast period. While the vertical wind shear is not expected to
be strong, the center of Estelle is now crossing over sea surface
temperatures cooler than 26 degrees C and into a drier, more stable
air mass. These atmospheric and oceanic conditions will make it
difficult for the storm to retain or develop organized deep
convection. This should result in a gradual spindown of the
circulation. The official intensity forecast follows the
multi-model consensus guidance and now predicts Estelle to become a
post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days.
The track philosophy is unchanged. Estelle is moving
west-northwestward at 10 kt and is following the steering currents
of a mid-level ridge to its north-northeast. This motion is
predicted to continue for the next couple of days until the storm
becomes a remnant low and turns westward in the low-level trade
winds. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous
advisory and close to the consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 19.0N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 19.6N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 22.0N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1200Z 22.8N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1200Z 23.0N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1200Z 23.0N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
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