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Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022023
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

The tropical cyclone has not become better organized this morning, 
and it remains in a sheared state.  The low-level center of the 
system is located to the southwest of a rather ragged-looking area 
of deep convection.  Despite its unimpressive appearance, earlier 
scatterometer data indicated that the cyclone was close to tropical 
storm strength.  A Dvorak satellite intensity estimate, using a 
shear pattern measurement, is unchanged from the previous cycle and 
the current intensity estimate is held at 30 kt for this advisory.  
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 
the system later this morning.

Center fixes from satellite imagery indicate that the depression 
continues to move slowly southward with an initial motion 
estimate of 180/4 kt.  There is little change to the track forecast 
reasoning or numerical guidance from the previous advisory.  
During the next day or two, the cyclone is expected to move 
southward to southeastward at a slightly faster forward speed on 
the western side of a mid-level trough over Florida and east of a 
ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The latest official track 
forecast is basically an update of the previous one and is a blend 
of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus tracks.

It appears that the window of opportunity for the cyclone to 
strengthen is closing, or has already closed.  Vertical shear is 
likely to remain strong or become even stronger as the system moves 
farther south underneath an upper-tropospheric jet over the 
southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  This shear, combined with some drier 
air to the west of the trough over the extreme eastern Gulf, should 
cause a weakening trend to commence by this evening.  The official 
intensity forecast shows the system degenerating into a remnant low 
in 36 hours.
 
Based on the track and intensity forecast for this system, coastal 
watches and warnings are not necessary at this time.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 27.0N  86.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 26.2N  86.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 24.7N  86.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 23.3N  85.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/0600Z 22.5N  84.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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