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Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
500 PM AST Sat Aug 19 2023
 
Visible imagery has shown a partially-exposed, well-defined 
low-level circulation for the past several hours. Infrared imagery 
has also shown deep convection persisting since around 0600 UTC east 
of the center with cold cloud tops of less than -85 degrees C. 
Therefore, the system now meets the necessary requirements to be 
classified as a tropical cyclone. Subjective satellite estimates 
from TAFB and SAB are 35 kt and 25 kt, respectively, and the initial 
intensity is set to 30 kt based on that data. 

Models indicate that the depression is currently in a relatively 
hostile environment. There is strong deep-layer vertical shear and 
the mid-level relative humidities are near 40 percent. These 
conditions are not expected to change much and global models suggest 
this will be a short-lived depression. Simulated satellite imagery 
from the ECMWF shows a few bursts of deep convection that are 
sheared away by 48 hours. The official forecast shows a steady-state 
depression through 36 hours that degenerates to a remnant low in 48 
hours, and dissipates by 60 hours. This prediction is near the 
various consensus model guidance.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt. It is 
currently being steered by a narrow low-level ridge to its north. 
The system is expected to turn more westward and slow in forward 
speed over the next day or so followed by a slight bend back to the 
west-northwest on day 2. The NHC track forecast is near the simple 
and corrected model consensus aids, and leans towards the more 
southerly ECMWF track. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/2100Z 16.7N  50.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 17.0N  52.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 17.3N  54.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 17.6N  56.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 18.1N  58.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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