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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052023
500 AM HST Fri Aug 04 2023

Dora is experiencing some moderate easterly shear at this time. 
While the cyclone continues to generate cold cloud tops in the 
eyewall, the eye has become almost indistinct in infrared imagery. 
In addition, recently-received SSM/IS data shows decreased 
convection in the northeastern quadrant.  There is a considerable 
spread in the various subjective and objective satellite intensity 
estimates with a range from 95-115 kt.  Based on the trends since 
the last advisory, the initial intensity is lowered to a somewhat 
uncertain 105 kt.

The initial motion is still 265/16 kt, and the track forecast 
reasoning is again unchanged from the previous advisory. A deep- 
layer ridge to the north of the storm is forecast to build westward 
and keep Dora on the same general trajectory for entire forecast 
period.  The new track guidance has changed little from the 
previous advisory, and the new forecast track is an update of the 
previous track.

The current shear should persist for another 24 h or so, and after 
the shear lets up Dora will be moving over sea surface temperatures 
of 26-27C until about 96 h.  Based on these and the intensity 
guidance, the intensity forecast through 96 h will show unsteady 
weakening, with faster weakening during the first 24 h and around 
72-96 h when Dora is closest to cold water.  The intensity forecast 
becomes more uncertain by 120 h.  The cyclone is supposed to move 
over warmer water and be in a light shear environment by that time.  
However, the dynamical guidance suggests continued weakening despite 
the apparently favorable environment.  The 120-h forecast point 
will show continued weakening in deference to the dynamical models.  
It should be noted, though, that even while weakening Dora is 
expected to remain a hurricane through the entire 5-day forecast 
period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/1500Z 14.0N 126.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 13.9N 129.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 13.7N 132.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 13.5N 135.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 13.2N 139.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  07/0000Z 13.0N 142.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 12.9N 146.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 13.0N 154.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 13.0N 162.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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