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Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202023
700 PM PST Sat Nov 25 2023

On geostationary satellite imagery, Ramon has taken on the 
appearance of a highly sheared tropical cyclone, with bursts of deep 
convection forming near the center that have continually been 
stripped away. Despite this pattern, there is evidence that  
upper-level divergence has aided in convective generation today, 
with the GOES-18 mesoscale sector derived motions winds showing 
250-350 mb flow fanning off in a V-shape pattern along the eastern 
flank of the cyclone. A late arriving ASCAT-C pass received after 
the prior advisory suggested that Ramon was a bit stronger than 
previously estimated, with a fairly large swath of greater than 35 
kt winds over its northern semicircle, though the highest values may 
have been rain inflated. An AMSR2 microwave pass at 2152 UTC also 
showed a prominent curved band on the 37 GHz channel along where 
these highest winds were observed earlier on scatterometer. Based on 
this information, the initial intensity is adjusted to 40 kt for 
this advisory. This value is a little higher than the subjective 
Dvorak estimates, but does match the most recent SATCON intensity 
estimate from UW-CIMSS. 

Ramon is already battling some very hostile westerly vertical wind 
shear above 40 kt, and this is only forecast to increase further 
over the next 12-24 hours. The divergent upper-level flow is also 
forecast to quickly bypass the storm. Thus, the ongoing convection 
is expected to fully detach from the low-level circulation later 
tonight, and weakening should begin shortly. Ramon is still expected 
to become a remnant low in a day or two, with the low opening up 
into a trough not long beyond that. Aside from the short-term 
intensity, the latest forecast is close to the previous one, and is 
in good agreement with the consensus aids.  

The ongoing convective bursts may have temporarily caused Ramon to 
jog east this evening, though as the low-level circulation starts to 
become detached, a slow westward drift may be starting, estimated at 
260/1 kt. While the cyclone may continue to drift slowly tonight, by 
tomorrow, a bit faster westward to west-northwestward motion should 
begin as the cyclone is steered by a weak low-level ridge. The NHC 
track forecast is a bit south and east of the previous one, 
partially due to adjustments in the initial potion, but ends up 
close to the prior track forecast in 36-48 h, close to the simple 
and corrected consensus aids. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0300Z 14.8N 122.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 14.8N 122.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 14.9N 123.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 15.0N 123.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/0000Z 15.7N 125.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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