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Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number   4
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 22 2024
 
The satellite appearance of Hone has degraded since the previous 
advisory package, with deep convection now limited to near the low 
level circulation center. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity 
estimates came in at 2.5 for PHFO and SAB, and 2.0 for JTWC. The 
objective intensity estimates ADT/AiDT from UW-CIMSS came in at 37 
knots each. A recent and timely ASCAT MetOp-B pass sampled a large 
portion of the eastern semicircle of Hone, with a large swath of 35 
to 40 knot winds. As a result, the initial intensity of Hone has 
been increased slightly to 40 knots with this advisory. Air Force 
Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft will give us a better idea of the 
intensity, structure, and size of Hone Friday morning.

The initial motion for this advisory is set at 280/12 knots. This 
general motion is expected to continue during the next several days 
as Hone is steered by a large subtropical ridge to the north. A 
decrease in forward speed and a slight turn towards the 
west-northwest is expected during the first half of next week as a 
weakness develops in the subtropical ridge north of the system. The 
official forecast track lies nearly on top of the track 
from the previous advisory, and closely follows the tightly 
clustered consensus guidance. 

Environmental conditions will change little during the next few 
days. Hone will remain in an environment characterized by low to 
moderate vertical wind shear, sea surface temperatures around 26 to 
27C, and sufficient deep layer moisture. This is expected to 
support gradual strengthening of the system as it moves in a 
general westward direction during the next couple of days. It 
appears that there is a window for further intensification Sunday 
through Tuesday as the system tracks south of the Hawaiian Islands. 
Hone will be moving into an area with sea surface temperatures 
of 27C and higher ocean heat content, while the westerly vertical 
wind shear remains at light to moderate levels. This could allow 
Hone to reach Hurricane strength and the current official forecast 
reflects this. Beyond day 4, westerly vertical wind shear increases 
sharply to between 30 and 35 knots, and some drier mid-level air 
appears to begin entraining into the system. This should result in a 
weakening trend by day 5. The intensity forecast is close to the 
intensity consensus during the next several days, and is roughly a 
blend of the statistical and dynamical consensus guidance from days 
3 through 5. 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. There is the potential for excessive rainfall and flash flooding
on portions of the Big Island starting later Saturday, continuing
through Sunday and lingering into Monday as a large area of
moisture associated with Hone. The heaviest rainfall will likely
occur over windward and southeast facing slopes.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on the Big Island later
Saturday into Sunday. Winds are expected to be strongest where they
blow downslope from higher terrain, over headlands, and through
passes.
 
3. Swell generated by Hone is expected to reach the Hawaiian
islands Saturday night into Sunday. This swell could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0900Z 16.1N 144.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 16.3N 146.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 16.7N 149.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 17.1N 152.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 17.4N 154.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  25/1800Z 17.8N 157.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 18.4N 158.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 19.5N 161.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 20.0N 165.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
 
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