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Hurricane Hone Discussion Number  15
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
500 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024
 
Around noon today, high-resolution visible satellite imagery 
revealed Hone's partially exposed low-level circulation center 
emerging from the northwest edge of the deep convection, and it 
remains exposed at this time. As this was occurring, a U.S. Air 
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was completing their final 
mission into Hone, reporting maximum flight-level winds near 70 
kt, and peak SFMR winds near 70 kt. Although Hone's structure and 
current satellite appearance are not exactly what one would expect 
with a hurricane, in deference to the aircraft data, the initial 
intensity for this advisory is estimated to be 65 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 280/11kt, with Hone being steered by 
a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. Water vapor imagery and UW-
CIMSS shear analyses indicate that Hone is on the verge of entering 
a hostile atmospheric environment, with increasingly westerly shear 
and dry mid-levels along the forecast track. In response, Hone is 
expected to gradually weaken and become increasingly shallow, 
steered steadily west-northwestward by the low-level high to the 
north. Simulated satellite imagery indicates that Hone will produce 
periods of sporadic convection over the next couple of days as SSTs 
steadily increase along the forecast track, but the persistent shear 
will likely lead to dissipation on or before day 5. The updated 
track forecast closely follows the previous, and the dynamical 
consensus guidance. The intensity forecast is informed by the FSSE, 
the intensity consenus IVCN, and SHIPS guidance. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0300Z 19.1N 158.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 19.2N 160.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 19.3N 162.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 19.5N 164.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 19.8N 167.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  28/1200Z 20.2N 169.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 20.6N 171.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  30/0000Z 21.2N 176.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard
 
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