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Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number  18
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024
 
Hone's well-defined low-level circulation center is clearly seen in 
visible satellite images this morning, with limited deep convection 
well separated from the center. Primary data point supporting this 
advisory's intensity estimate is NDBC buoy 51003, which recorded a 
minimum pressure near 998 mb and winds gusting to 54 kt as Hone's 
center passed very close around 5 AM HST this morning. As this was 
the pressure used in the previous advisory, the initial intensity 
estimate will remain unchanged at 55 kt. 

The initial motion estimate is 280/11kt. The cyclone continues to 
gradually spin down in the face of moderate westerly vertical wind 
shear, and the increasingly shallow system is expected to be 
steered generally westward until dissipation occurs on day 4. Some 
slowing in forward speed and increase in latitude is expected after 
midweek as the center of the surface high now due north of Hone 
shifts eastward. The updated forecast track is informed by 
well-clustered track guidance, and will take Hone into a environment 
characterized by increasingly strong westerly winds aloft. The 
intensity forecast indicates that Hone will become a post-tropical 
low on Thursday, and dissipate on Friday before crossing the 
International Date Line, in line with a blend of the statistical and 
dynamical guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 19.2N 161.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 19.4N 163.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 19.6N 166.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 20.0N 168.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 20.3N 170.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  29/0600Z 20.8N 172.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 21.4N 174.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard
 
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