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Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number  25
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
500 AM HST Wed Aug 28 2024
 
Convection redeveloped over the low-level circulation center 
(LLCC) of Hone shortly after the previous advisory, then collapsed a 
couple hours later allowing the LLCC to become exposed once again. 
It is clear the strong westerly vertical wind shear in excess 
of 40 knots is impeding any chance for intensification of this 
system at the moment. The  latest subjective Dvorak current 
intensity estimates remain between 2.5 (35 kt) and 3.5 (55 kt). 
In addition a 0845Z ASCAT pass showed several 40 to 45 kt wind 
barbs. As a result, the initial intensity has been held at 45 kt for 
this advisory.
 
Hone continues to move just north of due west or 280/8 kt. This
general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of
days as the cyclone is steered by a low to mid-level ridge to the
north. The motion is a bit more uncertain by the weekend as the
system begins to interact with a mid-level low near the
International Date Line. The track forecast calls for a slowing in
forward speed and a turn toward the northwest as a result of this
interaction. Little change was made to the official track forecast 
which closely follows a blend of the FSSE, TVCE, and HCCA consensus 
track guidance.
 
Strong westerly vertical wind shear of around 40 kt is forecast to
affect Hone during the next few days. This combined with dry
mid-level air surrounding the system should result in gradual
weakening despite the cyclone moving over increasingly warm sea
surface temperatures and higher ocean heat content. The intensity
forecast calls for slow weakening of the system, with Hone
forecast to become a post-tropical low on Friday, and dissipate by
Sunday. Little change was made to the intensity forecast which
remains closely aligned with a blend of the statistical and 
dynamical consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 20.5N 168.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 20.8N 170.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 21.1N 171.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 21.5N 173.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 21.9N 175.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  31/0000Z 22.4N 176.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  31/1200Z 23.0N 176.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  01/1200Z 25.5N 178.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
 
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