ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
 
Tropical Depression Hone Discussion Number  36
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
1100 PM HST Fri Aug 30 2024
 
Another nocturnal convective bloom has begun along the northeastern 
semicircle of Hone this evening. Deep convection obscures the low 
level circulation center (LLCC) once again after at least 12 hours 
of total exposure. Subjective Dvorak satellite current intensity 
values range from 1.5/25 kt to 2.0/30 kt between the three fix 
centers. UW-CIMSS ADT was 29 kt and, unfortunately, Hone fell into 
the ASCAT scan gap this cycle. Given all this, the initial 
intensity is set at 30 kt once again.

Short term motion has become a bit erratic for Hone, with movement 
toward the north or even north northeast detected at 5 kt or less 
since 03Z. Motion over the past 12 hours, used to smooth out 
erratic motion like this, was about 330 degrees at 5 kt. However, 
there is quite a bit of uncertainty on what Hone's initial motion 
should be this cycle. It seems clear that Hone has begun its 
forecast turn to the north northwest as it starts to feel the 
influence of an upper low near Midway Atoll. Global models show 
Hone's LLCC and the upper low becoming well-aligned in the next 24 
to 36 hours. After that, Hone will move slowly northwestward. Little 
change was made to the track forecast through 48 hours, other than a 
nudge to the right to account for current erratic motion. Beyond 
that, the track forecast was adjusted significantly to the right to 
keep it within the ever-shifting guidance envelope, closely 
following HWRF. Even with this adjustment, the forecast track lies 
within the left third of this envelope. 

Global models show shear across Hone will diminish rapidly over the 
next 36 hours. Sea surface temperatures will remain marginally 
favorable for development through 48 to 60 hours, with sub-27 
degree C water encountered afterward. Except for HAFS, which 
repeatedly calls for rapid intensification, the intensity guidance 
envelope is rather tight and well-behaved. The intensity forecast 
lies comfortably within this envelope, close to IVCN, with little 
change from the last forecast cycle. Hone will slowly strengthen 
through 120 hours but cap out as a tropical storm. After passing 
south of the northwest Hawaiian Islands, this system is forecast to 
cross the International Dateline sometime Sunday afternoon Hawaii 
time.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/0900Z 22.5N 175.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 23.3N 176.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 24.6N 177.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 25.5N 178.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 26.3N 179.8E   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  02/1800Z 28.0N 179.3E   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 29.7N 178.7E   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 32.1N 176.7E   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 34.6N 175.0E   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Powell
 
NNNN