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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
An elongated area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf 
of Mexico continues to produce a large area of showers and 
thunderstorms. Satellite-derived winds show this system does not yet 
have a well-defined center, but is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph 
on its western side. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
additional development and a tropical storm is expected to form 
during the next day or so.  The system is forecast to move generally 
northwestward and then northward near or along the Gulf coast of 
Mexico, upper Texas, and Louisiana coasts with additional 
strengthening possible by the middle of this week. 

Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico, upper Texas, and Louisiana 
coasts should closely monitor the progress of this system. Tropical 
Storm Watches could be required for portions of the coast of 
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas later this afternoon or 
tonight, with additional watches possible along the coast of Texas 
and Louisiana later tonight or Monday. An Air-Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently in route to to investigate 
the system this afternoon. Additional information on this system, 
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued 
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): 
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
over the central tropical Atlantic continue to show signs of 
organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
additional development of this system over the next couple of days, 
and a tropical depression is now likely to form during that time 
while the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic.  By 
the middle of this week the system should begin moving more westward 
at around 10 mph through the rest of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

3. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of 
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move very 
little during the next couple of days until it potentially interacts 
with a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of 
Africa on Monday. Environmental conditions thereafter are expected 
to be favorable for gradual development of this system, and a 
tropical depression could form by the middle or latter part of the 
week while the system begins moving slowly west-northwestward. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Papin