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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Francine, located over the western Gulf of Mexico a couple hundred 
miles off the coast of Louisiana. 

1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization with a 
tropical wave located a few hundred miles to the west-southwest of 
the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable 
for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression 
is likely to form over the next few days as the system moves 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph into the central Tropical 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): 
An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical 
Atlantic continues to produce some disorganized shower and 
thunderstorm activity.  Environmental conditions appear marginally 
conducive for some slight development during the next day or two 
while the system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph over the central 
tropical Atlantic.  The disturbance is expected to reach an area of 
stronger upper-level winds on Thursday, likely ending its chances 
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

3. East of the Leeward Islands:
A small but well-defined area of low pressure located several 
hundred miles to the east of the Leeward Islands is producing an 
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The proximity of dry 
air near the system is expected to limit additional development over 
the next couple of days before environmental conditions become even 
less conducive by this weekend as it moves slowly 
west-northwestward. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

4. Offshore the Southeastern U.S. over the Western Atlantic:
In a few days, a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along 
a residual frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern 
U.S. coastline. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development 
is possible during the early part of next week as the system 
meanders over the Gulf Stream or drifts slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Papin