069 
AXNT20 KNHC 291711
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Mar 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Swell Event: Long period northerly swell follows a
strong cold front that extends from 31N60W to south Florida at
1200 UTC. An altimeter pass indicates seas of 14 to 15 ft offshore
Florida. This swell event will continue to propagate southward 
covering most of the waters N of 25N W of 55W and E of the Bahamas
by this evening. The cold front will reach from 31N50W to 
Hispaniola by Mon morning. At that time, seas of 12 to 16 ft are 
expected behind the front. Rough to very rough seas will continue 
to affect most of central and western Atlantic waters N of 2ON by 
Tue morning. Seas are forecast to subside below 12 ft by Wed 
night. 

Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is 
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for
the forecast zone of Agadir near the coast of W Africa. The forecast
calls for northeast gales to 40 kt, with severe gusts, from 29/18
UTC to 30/12 UTC at least. Seas are forecast to build to 15 or 16
ft with these winds by Mon morning.

For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast 
listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Liberia 
near 06N10W and continues westward to 03N18W. The ITCZ then extends
from that point to the coast of Brazil at 03S40W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 
05W and 25W. Similar convective activity is S of 01N W of 25W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front stretches from South Florida to 24N90W where it
begins to dissipate. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate 
to rough seas prevail behind the front over the NE Gulf E basin E
of 89W. Moderate NE winds are ongoing in the E Bay of Campeche 
with seas to 5 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with  
slight to moderate seas. A narrow line of clouds, with possible
showers, is associated with the front, and now is reaching the
Florida Keys.

For the forecast, the cold front over the SE Gulf will stall and 
dissipate early this week. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate 
to rough seas across the NE Gulf will decrease today. High 
pressure will build in the wake of the front. Moderate to fresh E 
to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail over the E Gulf through
Thu night. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are forecast for 
the western half of the Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure building in the wake
of the Atlantic cold front and the Colombian low is supporting 
fresh to strong NE to E winds offshore Colombia. Winds of similar
speed are ongoing across the Windward Passage, the lee side of 
Cuba and south of Hispaniola. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds 
prevail. Low-topped trade wind showers are moving westward across
the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N 
of the area and the Colombian low will support strong to near 
gale-force NE to E winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through
Thu night. This pressure gradient will also support fresh to strong
NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south
of Hispaniola. These marine conditions will likely prevail through
Thu. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A strong cold front extends from 31N60W to South Florida. Strong to 
near-gale force N to NE winds, and rough to very rough seas follow
the front, and these marine conditions are currently affecting 
the offshore waters N of the Bahamas and west of 63W. A well
defined band of mainly low clouds is related to the front. Ahead 
of the front, moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas prevail.
Farther E, a surface trough is analyzed and extends 31N57W to 
21N58W. A weak 1017 mb low pressure is along the trough near 
27N56.5W. An area of showers, with isolated thunderstorms, is 
ahead of the trough axis, covering the waters N of 20N between 50W
and 56W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under 
the influence of a strong 1042 mb high pressure located NE of the 
Azores. The associated ridge extends SW to near 50W. This system 
tightens the pressure gradient across the area and supports fresh
to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas extending from
the NW coast of Africa to about 35W, including the Madeiras and 
Canary Islands. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are 
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned cold front will 
reach from 31N50W to Hispaniola by Mon morning before dissipating
over the SE waters on Tue. Strong to near-gale force N to NE 
winds, and rough to very rough seas are expected behind the front.
Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the front. Fresh 
to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas are expected 
across most of the offshore forecast waters through midweek.
 
$$
GR