000
AXNT20 KNHC 182031
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Mar 19 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: A gale-warning is in effect, issued by
Meteo-France, for the high seas zones of Irving, west of Madeira,
and Meteor until 19/12 UTC at least, with severe gusts. Please
refer to the next Special Feature for details on associated large
swells. Please refer to the high seas forecast issued by Meteo-
France on the website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.

East Atlantic Long-period N Swell: Large, long-period north swell
generated by a large fetch of gale to storm-force winds in the 
northeast Atlantic will continue to propagate southward of 31N 
through the weekend. Expect seas of 12-24 ft through Sat mainly N
of the Cape Verde Islands and east of 43W. Seas across these 
northeastern waters will then gradually reduce in areal coverage 
and subside below 12 ft near the Canary Islands on Mon. Please 
refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N12W then curves 
southwestward to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to the 
coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 07W and 22W, and S of 
05N between 24W and 61W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge is anchored by a 1031 mb high pressure over the
United States Mid-Atlantic region extends a ridge southward 
basin-wide, supporting moderate to fresh NE winds across the SE
half of the basin along with 4 to 7 ft seas, except higher near
and in the Yucatan Channel, where a tighter pressure gradient
continues due to a lingering frontal boundary over the NW 
Caribbean. Winds are gentle to moderate at E-SE with 2 to 5 ft 
seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across 
the Gulf region and a frontal boundary over the Caribbean Sea will
support moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate to rough 
seas over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida to Fri. Moderate 
to fresh NE winds are expected across the eastern Bay of Campeche 
at night through Sat night. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas will prevail through Sun. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from Cuba near 23N80W to the Gulf of
Honduras. A surface trough is analyzed along to the east of the 
front, from near the Cayman Islands at 20N80W to the SW Caribbean
at 12N80W. Low level convergence induced by both the front and 
the pre-frontal trough continue to support scattered showers over 
the NW basin, mainly N of 14N and W of 75W. Fresh to strong 
northerly winds with seas of 5 to 9 ft prevail N of the front. 
Across the central and eastern basin E of the trough, fresh to 
locally strong E-SE trade winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail.
Gentle to moderate winds are across the remainder of the waters
near the trough axis, including in the SW Caribbean, with seas of
3 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, a stationary front extends from western Cuba to
the Gulf on Honduras. Fresh to locally strong N winds and rough 
seas follow the front. On Thu, the frontal boundary will drift 
eastward, with the fresh to locally strong N winds spilling just 
offshore Nicaragua in the wake of the front. This system is 
forecast to dissipate by Fri. This weather pattern should decrease
the influence from the Atlantic ridge over the east and central 
Caribbean allowing winds and seas to diminish through Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Refer to the Special Features section for details on an east
Atlantic Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France, and associated large
northerly swells.

A stationary front extends from 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and 
western Cuba. Heavy showers associated with the front continue to
affect the Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank, the Florida Straits, 
SE Florida Seaboard and within 240 nm E of the front between the 
Bahamas and Bermuda. Mostly fresh NE winds prevail W of the 
front, where seas are 5 to 9 ft E of 80W, and 3 to 6 ft across 
the Florida coastal waters, higher in the gulfstream.

A broad ridge centered on a 1034 mb high near 37N45W dominates 
most of the rest of the Atlantic between the front and 25W. Fresh
to near gale-force winds are found N of 23N and E of 40W to the
coast of Africa associated with the gale to storm force system
discussed in the Special Features section. Fresh to strong winds
under a relatively tight pressure gradient are found elsewhere
from 18N to 28N between 35W and 55W. Mainly moderate to fresh
trades dominate the remainder of the basin E of the stationary
front. Seas are 4 to 7 ft over the SE waters S of 20N and E of 35W
including across the Cabo Verde Islands, and 7 to 11 ft across the
remainder of the waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will remain 
nearly stationary from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas on Thu.
A weak low pressure is forecast to develop along the frontal 
boundary late Thu into Fri, and move quickly NE and N of the 
forecast area by Sat. This will tighten the pressure gradient, 
supporting fresh to strong winds and rough seas on either side of 
front and across the offshore forecast waters N of 25N through the
weekend as this system then transitions to a cold front and moves
east of the area. 

$$
Lewitsky