000
AXNT20 KNHC 080806
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Mar 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the 
Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low will continue to 
support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and 
eastern Caribbean through Mon. Winds offshore of Colombia will 
pulse to gale-force until around sunrise this morning. Seas of 8 
to 12 ft are expected with the strongest winds. Please read the 
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center 
at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea 
near 10N14W, then extends southwestward to 02N20W. The ITCZ 
continues from 02N20W to the coast of Brazil near 03S45W. 
Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
south of 06N between 15W and 54W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge from the Atlantic extends westward across Florida into
the Gulf region supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds with 
moderate seas across the Gulf waters S of 25N, with fresh to 
strong trades occurring through the Florida Straits confirmed by 
earlier scatterometer data. Slight seas are noted offshore 
Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over much of the 
northern and NW Gulf coast as a front slowly moves across the 
south-central United States, as well as over parts of western 
Florida. Some areas of dense fog are present across much of the
Gulf coastal waters as reported by recent in-situ observations.

For the forecast, a weak cold front just inland over Texas will 
move into the NW Gulf coastal waters later today and stall before 
washing out. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending 
southwestward from the Bermuda High will settle in the Gulf 
through midweek next week. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and low pressure over Mexico will support mainly moderate to 
fresh E to SW winds basin-wide, pulsing to between fresh and 
strong near the northern Yucatan and the western Gulf in the 
evenings, and slightly weaker winds overall in the NE Gulf. Seas 
will be slight to moderate through Wed. Another, but stronger cold
front may impact the NW Gulf Wed night, moving across the basin 
through Thu night with increasing winds and seas behind it. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning 
in the south-central Caribbean. 

An enhanced pressure gradient is in place across the Caribbean,
with high pressure near Bermuda and lower pressure over northern
Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds are blowing through the
Windward Passage to between Cuba and Jamaica. Moderate to fresh NE
to E winds are in lee of Cuba and the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to 
near gale-force trades across the central and eastern Caribbean.
Seas are in the 8 to 12 ft range in the south-central Caribbean, 
and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere across the east and central parts of the 
basin. Moderate trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere across
the Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over
the Greater Antilles. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High 
and a Colombian low will support fresh to near gale-force trades 
across the central and eastern Caribbean through Wed. Winds 
offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force until 
around sunrise today. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse 
near the Windward Passage with fresh winds near the Gulf of 
Honduras for the remainder of the weekend. Large easterly trade- 
wind swell from the tropical North Atlantic will keep rough seas 
near the Lesser Antilles through Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast region, with a 1025 mb 
high pressure located just SE of Bermuda near, and another 1026 
mb near high pressure situated N of the Madeira Islands near 
35N19W. Fresh to locally strong trades are prevalent S of 25N and
W of 45W, with seas of 7 to 9 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds are N
of 20N and E of 20W to the coast of Africa due to a tight pressure
gradient, with associated seas of 7 to 10 ft N of 15N and E of
28W. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 7 ft are elsewhere
S of 27N. Between the highs, 1020 mb low pressure is positioned
just N of the area near 35N28W with a stationary front reaching SW
to along 31N between 39W and 45W. Fresh to strong winds are just N
of 31N behind the boundary, with associated rough seas seeping
just S of 31N now between 40W and 45W. Across the remainder of the
waters N of 27N, gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 4 to 6
ft seas prevail under ridging extending between the highs.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds 
will prevail south of 25N through mid-week, reaching strong north 
of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will 
prevail within these winds and east of the central and southeast 
Bahamas through Tue. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected 
elsewhere across the region. Southerly fresh to strong winds may 
develop off northern Florida Wed night ahead of a potential cold 
front. That front may move offshore by early Thu, weakening and 
slowing from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by late Thu 
night. 

$$
Lewitsky