000
AXNT20 KNHC 151612
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Mar 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front is expected to 
enter the northwestern Gulf tonight, then move southeastward 
across the Gulf through Mon night. Widespread strong to near-gale 
northerly winds will follow the front, peaking to gale-force off 
the Texas coast tonight through early Mon morning, then off the 
Mexico coast from the Texas-Mexico border southward to near 
Veracruz Mon. Seas will peak to 15 ft with the strongest winds. 
Winds off Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico could gust up to storm- 
force on Mon. Both winds and seas should gradually subside from 
north to south starting Mon evening.

Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05N9W and continues 
to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W to 04S38W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 01N to 05N between 21W and 38W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
a GALE WARNING.

Moderate to fresh SW to S return flow prevails along the western 
edge of the subtropical Atlantic ridge, with locally strong winds
noted in the far NW Gulf off the coast of Texas. Scattered
moderate convection is evident on satellite from 22N to 27N
between 82W and 87W, including waters in the vicinity of the
Yucatan Passage and western Straits of Florida. Additional
scattered moderate convection is developing over South Florida.
This unsettled weather across the eastern Gulf is a result of a
shortwave trough in the region drifting towards the Florida
Peninsula.

For the forecast, a strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf 
tonight, quickly reaching the southeastern Gulf by Mon night and 
slow down as it moves into the northwestern Caribbean on Tue. 
Strong to gale-force N winds and building seas will follow the 
front. Gale conditions and rough to very rough seas are forecast 
in the NW Gulf, and offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico tonight 
and Mon. Gusty winds to storm-force are expected offshore Tampico 
and Veracruz on Mon. In the wake of the front, high pressure will 
build across the region into midweek.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong to near-gale force trades were captured by satellite 
scatterometer this morning, in the south-central Caribbean off the
coast of Colombia. Seas in this area are currently 8-10 ft.
Elsewhere, mainly fresh trades prevail across the eastern and
central Caribbean, with 4-7 ft seas. Of note, scatterometer data
also indicates strong trades between the islands of the Lesser
Antilles. In the western Caribbean, moderate trades and 2-4 ft 
seas prevail. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of a 
surface trough along 64W, currently passing through the eastern 
Caribbean at 10-15 kt.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to build westward 
across the west and central Atlantic today. The resulting pressure
gradient will lead to fresh to strong trades and building seas 
from the waters E of the Lesser Antilles today, and to the eastern
and central Caribbean including the passages on Mon. The pressure
gradient will weaken by Tue as a cold front approaches the NW 
Caribbean. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

An expansive subtropical Atlantic high pressure extends across
much of the basin. Fresh to strong trades prevail south of 25N and
west of 45W, including between the islands of the Lesser Antilles.
The persistent strong trades have built seas of 8-10 ft in E swell 
within an area from the equator north to 22N between 45W and 65W.
Another area of fresh to strong trades is in the far eastern
Atlantic near the Canary Islands, where seas are 8-9 ft. Elsewhere,
trades are moderate or weaker and seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a strong cold front will enter the 
NW Gulf tonight, quickly reaching the southeastern Gulf by Mon 
night and slow down as it moves into the northwestern Caribbean on
Tue. Strong to gale-force N winds and building seas will follow 
the front. Gale conditions and rough to very rough seas are 
forecast in the NW Gulf, and offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico
tonight and Mon. Gusty winds to storm-force are expected offshore
Tampico and Veracruz on Mon. In the wake of the front, high 
pressure will build across the region into midweek. 

$$
Mahoney