000
AXNT20 KNHC 082205
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Jan 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A cold front will move off Texas
early Sat morning, then race southward through the western Gulf.
North wind will quickly build to gale force before midday Sat
offshore Tampico, Mexico, with gale conditions spreading to
offshore Veracruz, Mexico, by Sat evening. Gales are forecast to
end Sat night offshore Tampico, but will continue offshore
Veracruz and through the western Bay of Campeche Sun and Sun
night. Very rough seas will quickly build with the gales, with
seas likely reaching near 20 ft offshore Veracruz Sat night into
Sun. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at -
https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Sierra Leone near
08N12W, then runs southwestward to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues 
westward from 04N20W to 04N40W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 10W and 26W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

See Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning that has been issued for western portions of the basin
starting Saturday. 

A ridge, associated with a 1021 mb high pressure centered NE of
the Bahamas, dominates the Gulf region. The pressure gradient 
between the ridge and a low pressure system over Texas is
supporting fresh to locally strong S winds over the western basin
and gentle to moderate SE winds in the eastern basin. Seas are 5
to 8 ft in the western basin and 2 to 4 ft in the eastern basin,
except less than 2 ft within 120 nm of the Florida Peninsula. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds across the 
western half of the Gulf will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds
tonight while expanding eastward over much of the eastern Gulf. 
These winds will precede the next cold front forecast to come off 
the coast of Texas late Fri night. Strong to near-gale force N 
winds following the front will rapidly reach gale speed near 
Tampico Sat morning, and in Veracruz adjacent waters late Sat 
through Mon morning.The front will exit the basin Mon morning, 
and conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually improve Mon night 
into Tue. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to locally strong trades encompass the central basin,
including the Windward Passage. Strong to near gale force winds 
are offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 5 to 
8 ft in these area. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trades 
and seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate, except for 2 to 4 ft seas in the 
NE Caribbean. 

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NE to E winds will 
pulse offshore of NW Colombia through Sun night due to the 
gradient between building high pressure N of the region and low 
pressure over northern Colombia. Rough seas to 11 ft will occur 
within these winds. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast 
elsewhere in the central and SW Caribbean, including the Windward 
Passage and Hispaniola adjacent waters. Locally strong winds will 
be likely pulsing at night over the Windward Passage Fri night and
Sat night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail, 
except for fresh NE to E winds in the lee side of Cuba and the 
Gulf of Honduras beginning tonight and continuing into Sat. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A ridge, anchored by a 1021 mb high pressure centered between
Bermuda and the Bahamas, is supporting a broad area of light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas N fo 20N and W of 40W.
There is a zone of moderate to locally fresh trades S of 22N thats
impacting waters N of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and
Florida Straits, however. A surface trough extends northward from
the Leeward Islands along 61N to 25N, causing a cluster of 
moderate convection from 22N to 25N between 60W and 63W. A cold
front extends southward to 31N40W to 27N48W. To the E of this
front, fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail and continue to the
African coast, along with rough seas. For the deep tropics between
the Lesser Antilles and Africa, moderate to fresh trades and 6 to
9 ft seas prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure building in 
the wake of a cold front with tail just N of the region will 
support moderate to fresh NE winds across the waters E of the 
Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches to the Windward 
Passage from this evening through Sun. A new cold front will 
emerge off the NE Florida coast Sun. Fresh to strong NW winds will
follow this front, which is forecast to reach from Bermuda to the
northern Bahamas by Mon morning and dissipate Mon night into Tue.

$$
Konarik