000
AXNT20 KNHC 102057
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Nov 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Meteo-France Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: A pair of low 
pressure areas are in the eastern Atlantic with attendant fronts. 
Low pressure of 998 mb is analyzed from 33N25W with a stationary 
front to a 10 02 mb low near 29N33W, with cold fronts also out 
ahead of both of these lows. Ahead of these fronts, gale-force 
southwesterlies are present N of 26N to 21W. Very rough seas of up
to 20 ft extend beyond this area of gales southward to 22W and 
westward to 42W. These features will move rapidly E and a Gale
Warning has been issued by Meteo-France for the Irving and Madeira
zones, Irving through 11/06 UTC and Madeira through 11/15 UTC. 
Rough to very rough seas will continue to accompany the winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France 
at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 09N21W. The ITCZ 
extends from 09N21W to 08N35W to along the coast of northern South
America to 06N55W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 
09N between 40W and 47W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The combination of high pressure and and a couple of troughs, one
in the eastern Gulf extending from 29N85W to 23N86W, and the 
other one in the western Gulf from near Corpus Christi to 23N97W 
and to 19N95W, is generally allowing for light to gentle winds 
across the basin, with the exception of mostly moderate north 
winds west of the western Gulf trough from 22N to 24N. Slight seas
are over the basin, except moderate seas west of the western
trough. Scattered moderate convection is present across portions
of the basin north of 24N between the troughs.

For the forecast, a rather strong cold front will reach the Texas
coast Wed night, then sweep across the Gulf through Thu night 
exiting the basin early on Fri, and followed by fresh to locally 
strong northerly winds and building seas. Fresh to strong 
northwest winds are expected in the far SW Gulf Thu through Fri. 
High pressure will settle in over the area in the wake of the 
front this weekend, with moderate to fresh easterly winds 
expected. These winds increase to fresh to strong speeds over the 
NW Gulf Sun, then shifting to the north-central and NE Gulf by Sun
night as the gradient tightens ahead of a western Gulf frontal 
system and attendant low pressure that will be shifting eastward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of
the region and lower pressure over South America is leading to
fresh to strong trades over the south central basin, with moderate
to fresh trades elsewhere, except weaker near the coast of Central
America and in the NE Caribbean. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the south-
central Caribbean and 3 to 6 ft elsewhere, except less where the
weaker winds are. Moderate to strong convection is noted in the NW
Caribbean from 15N to 20N from Jamaica westward, where trade 
winds are converging near a surface trough and producing localized
rough seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and locally rough seas 
will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through Thu, with 
mainly moderate winds and seas elsewhere. The pressure gradient 
will weaken Thu night into Fri as a cold front approaches the 
Yucatan Channel, weakening the trades. Moderate to fresh northwest
winds and building seas are possible behind this front over the 
northwestern Caribbean into the weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning for portions of the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast area.

A stationary front extends from near 30N50W to low pressure of 
1016 mb near 27N63W then continues as mainly a stationary front to 
across the SE Bahamas. Some moderate to fresh winds are found
north of 30N between 50W and 65W where a reinforcing cold front is
rotating through. To the east, fresh or greater winds surround the
gale force low area described in the Special Features section
above across the waters north of 22N between 18W and 40W. Winds
are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters, along
with moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front and low pressure will 
exit the region Wed. Another cold front is expected to move off 
the southeastern U.S. coast Thu night accompanied by fresh to 
strong winds and building seas on either side of it. These 
conditions are expected to persist into the weekend. By early Sat,
the front will extend from near Bermuda to the southeastern 
Bahamas, and stall from near 26N55W to the vicinity of the Turks 
and Caicos.

$$
Lewitsky