000
AXNT20 KNHC 152225
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter
the northwest Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to 
the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and
moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected
over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW 
Gulf by early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected
with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist
over the SW Gulf through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO 
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and extends SW
to 1008 mb low pressure at 06N34W to 03N38W. The ITCZ extends 
from 03N38W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 14W and 25W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A mid- and upper-level low over the NW Caribbean extending through
the Yucatan Channel is inducing scattered disorganized convection
over much of the southern basin. Some thunderstorms are
concentrated in the western Bay of Campeche, where a weak surface
trough is present. Otherwise, modest subtropical ridging from high
pressure NE of the region is leading to mainly moderate or weaker
easterly winds through the basin, with slight to moderate seas. 

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region through 
Fri producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight to
moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest 
Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay 
of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to 
rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the 
west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by 
late Sat morning. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the 
strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the 
SW Gulf through Sun. Strong high pressure will follow the front 
promoting fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern 
half of the Gulf through Tue. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid- and upper-level low over the NW Caribbean is supporting
scattered moderate convection N of 17N and W of 80W. Otherwise,
the seasonal pressure gradient is leading to moderate to fresh
trades through the basin, with some strong easterly winds offshore
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas dominate,
highest in the south-central basin. 

For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the 
Colombian low will support fresh to strong NE to E winds offshore 
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and Fri, then mainly
moderate to fresh winds will prevail through the upcoming 
weekend. Rough seas are expected offshore Colombia with the 
strongest winds. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 
seas are forecast elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms 
associated with a surface trough will continue to affect the NW 
Caribbean tonight and Fri. Gusty winds and locally rough seas will
be associated with this convective activity. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough from 31N52W to near 26N62W is inducing scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection within 120 nm E of its 
axis. A 1012 mb low pressure centered near 21N37W is also 
generated scattered moderate convection N of its center to about 
25N, between 32W and 28W, where fresh E winds and locally rough 
seas are also pressure. Elsewhere, a mainly weak pressure gradient
is leading to moderate or weaker winds and mainly moderate seas. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will continue to dominate 
the forecast waters through Fri. A cold front will reach the NE 
waters on Fri with little change in winds and seas. A stronger 
cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late
Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from near Bermuda to 
South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and 
rough to very rough seas will follow the front with gale 
conditions possible in the vicinity of 31N70W by Sun night. 

$$
Konarik