825 
AXNT20 KNHC 050527
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Apr 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: 
The pressure gradient between a strong 1028 mb high pressure
located near Bermuda and a 1008 mb Colombian Low will continue to
support strong to near-gale trade winds across the south-central
Caribbean through Sat night. Recent satellite derived wind data
confirmed gale-force winds occurring offshore NW Colombia as of
0245 UTC. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia are expected to
remain at or near gale force through Saturday morning, and will
peak at gale-force again Saturday night with seas reaching 12 to 
14 ft under the strongest winds.

Central Atlantic Gale Warning:
A cold front moving across the north-central Atlantic will move
into the discussion waters south of 31N late Sat and reach from
31N38W to 29N49W by Sat evening. SW winds to gale force are
expected within 90 nm ahead of the front north of 28N. Winds will
diminish below gale force by mid Sun morning as the front shifts
southeastward. Looking ahead, a large N swell will start impacting
the waters east of 60W and will subside late Tue into mid-week. 
This swell will produce seas 12 to 20 ft south of 31N from Sat 
night through Mon, then gradually subside afterward.

Gulf of America Gale Warning: 
A strong late-season cold front will emerge off of the Texas coast
Sat night. Fresh to near-gale N winds and rapidly building seas
will follow the front over the western Gulf Sun and Mon, with
northerly gales forecast near Tampico on Sun morning, and off
Veracruz Sun afternoon. The cold front will extend from the
Florida panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche Mon followed by
fresh to strong N winds. 

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters 
Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, at websites:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
https://www.nhc,noaa.gov/marine/offshore.psp for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of 
Sierra Leone near 07N12W, then extends southwestward to 05N15W. 
An ITCZ continues from 05N15W to the NE coast of Brazil near 
02S45W. Widely scattered moderate convection is observed from the
Equator to 04N between 15W and 30W, and also from the Equator to
03N between 45W and 51W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of America. 
Please refer to the Special Features section for more details. 

Fresh to strong SE winds continue across most of the Gulf this
evening, between high pressure over the western Atlantic near 
Bermuda and 999 mb low pressure near the west Texas-northeast 
Mexico border. This sustained return flow is producing seas of 8 
ft and higher across most of the waters W of 88W and N of 22N, 
with peak seas of 10-11 ft occurring 50-100 nm offshore the Texas
coast. Seas are 5 to 8 ft over the eastern Gulf. Scattered showers
are occurring over the NW Gulf due to convergent surface winds in
the area.

For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda 
High and low pressure over south-central U.S. will continue 
forcing fresh to near-gale SE winds across the basin through Sat 
afternoon. The moist SE flow may allow areas of sea fog to persist
across the northern Gulf into Sat. A strong late-season cold 
front will emerge off of the Texas coast Sat night. Fresh to near 
gale N winds and rapidly building seas will follow the front over 
the western Gulf Sun and Mon, with northerly gales forecast near 
Tampico on Sun morning, and off Veracruz Sun afternoon. The cold 
front will extend from the Florida panhandle to the eastern Bay of
Campeche Mon followed by fresh to strong N winds. The front will 
weaken as it moves southeast of the area Tue followed by weak high
pressure over the northern Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish 
accordingly through Tue night in all but the far southeast Gulf 
where fresh winds and rough seas may persist. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters near the coast of 
Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features section for more 
details. 

Recent satellite derived wind data confirmed gale-force winds
occurring offshore NW Colombia as of 0245 UTC, with strong to near
gale force winds occurring in surrounding portions of the central
Caribbean. The remainder of the basin is dominated by fresh to
strong trades, including the northern Caribbean passages due to an
enhanced pressure gradient between a 1028 mb high SW of Bermuda
and the 1008 mb Colombia Low. Seas are 6-10 ft across the majority
of the basin, with localized seas up to 12 ft offshore NW
Colombia.

For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient from the Bermuda 
High to the Colombian Low will continue to produce gale-force 
winds N of Colombia through early Sat morning, while fresh to 
near-gale trades prevail across most of the basin, including 
Atlantic passages and the Gulf of Honduras. Winds will pulse once 
again to gale-force over the waters S-central Caribbean on Sat 
night/early Sun. Rough to very rough seas will accompany these 
winds. By early next week, as the weakening Bermuda High shifts 
eastward, trades across the Caribbean will be reduced to moderate 
to fresh. A cold front may reach the northwest Caribbean Tue with 
winds shifting from southeasterly to northerly. The front may then
stall and dissipate over the NW Caribbean mid-week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the far NE Atlantic waters east of
42W. Please refer to the Special Features section for more 
details.

A weakening cold front enters the Atlantic forecast waters along 
31N27W and continues to 24N48W. A surface trough, formerly part of
the aforementioned front, then extends from 24N48W to 25N64W. 
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 6 to 10 ft seas follow the 
front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along and
within 100 nm ahead of the front. The subtropical ridge is 
anchored by 1028 mb high pressure west of Bermuda near 31N70W. 
This pattern is supporting fresh to strong E to SE winds and 7 to 
10 ft seas south of 25N and between 20W and the Bahamas. Mostly 
moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a strong Bermuda High will continue
to force fresh to strong trades south of 23N/24N through tonight.
As the Bermuda High weakens on Sat through early next week, fresh
to strong trades will be restricted to the SE Bahamas and the 
Windward Passage, while over the NE waters a front or frontal 
trough will rotate through bringing fresh to strong winds Sat 
through early Sun. At the same time, a large N swell will start 
impacting the waters east of 60W and will subside late Tue into 
mid-week. Fresh to strong S winds will develop off the coast of 
northeast Florida Sun night and Mon ahead of a cold front moving 
through the southeastern United States. The front is forecast to 
move off of the coast Mon night, and reach from Bermuda to eastern
Cuba by mid week, followed by fresh to strong NE winds and 
moderate to rough seas. 

$$
Adams