971 
AXNT20 KNHC 182318
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Feb 19 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is mostly over west Africa. The ITCZ extends
from 04N21W to 0.5N50W. Scattered moderate convection found along
the ITCZ. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge extends from the western Atlantic to the central Gulf.
This pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh S winds and 
3-5 ft seas across the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate 
breezes elsewhere with 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds 
and moderate seas are expected over the central and western Gulf 
through Fri as ridging prevails over the eastern basin. Locally 
strong E to SE winds will pulse in the south-central basin, north 
of the Yucatan Peninsula, each afternoon and night through Fri as 
a trough develops daily over the region. Looking ahead, a strong 
cold front is slated to move into the northern Gulf this weekend 
and sweep over the basin through early next week. Gale force winds
and very rough seas will be possible offshore of Tampico and 
Veracruz Sun into Mon, and widespread fresh to strong N to NE 
winds and rough seas are expected elsewhere in the wake of the 
front. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

The gradient between 1022 mb high pressure SE of Bermuda and 1009
mb low pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong NE 
winds and 7 to 10 ft seas off the coast of Colombia, along with 
fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas elsewhere across the central 
Caribbean. Moderate trade winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted 
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the 
south- central Caribbean through this weekend as a moderate 
pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and 
the Colombian low. Winds may reach near-gale force each night 
offshore of northern Colombia, and rough seas are expected near 
and to the west of these winds. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E to SE
winds and occasionally rough seas will occur in the Gulf of 
Honduras this afternoon into early Sun. Otherwise, moderate to 
occasionally fresh trade winds are expected over the rest of the 
basin through the forecast period. Looking ahead, rough seas may 
develop east of the Lesser Antilles late this week as a N swell 
progresses through the central tropical Atlantic. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from a hurricane-force 
extratropical low that is well south of Newfoundland, to 
the tropical Atlantic near 31N47W and continues southwestward to 
25.5N59W, where it becomes a stationary front to the central 
Bahamas. Thunderstorm activity has ceased along the front, 
although showers are likely ongoing. A broad ridge is building in 
the wake of the front, anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure area 
SE of Bermuda near 31N67W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are found 
ahead of the front west of 45W, with moderate to fresh NW to N 
winds west of the front. Rough to very rough combined seas 
primarily in NW swell persist west of the front to 74W as well, 
with wave heights as high sas 15 ft near 31N53W. Farther east, a 
ridge extends from high pressure near the Azores southwestward to 
roughly 25N43W. Gentle breezes and 4-6 ft seas are along the 
ridge axis, with moderate NE winds and 5-7 ft seas southeast of 
the ridge, and over the remainder of the Atlantic discussion 
area. Saharan dust is noted in the eastern Atlantic east of about 
35W. Surface observations from the Cape Verde Islands are 
reporting dust. 

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas occurring east of 75W 
will prevail today, in the wake of a weakening front extending 
from the central tropical Atlantic through the central Bahamas. 
Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft are expected north of 27N and 
east of 62W through late tonight. Seas will slowly subside from 
west to east tonight into early Fri. Moderate to locally fresh E 
to NE winds will continue through tonight over the central basin 
as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Elsewhere, 
moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds will occur offshore of 
northern Florida into this weekend as a front passes north of the 
region. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere through 
Sat. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is slated to push offshore
of the southeastern U.S. on Sun, and increasing winds and rapidly
building seas are expected in the wake of the front through early
next week. 

$$
KRV