000
AXNT20 KNHC 281048
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Sep 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Fay is centered near 27.9N 44.1W at 28/0900
UTC or 1050 nm WSW of the Azores, moving SSW at 6 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas to 8 ft are within 90 nm
across the NW quadrant of the depression. Numerous moderate 
isolated strong convection is from 24N to 29N between 42W and 
46W. The T.D. is expected to move southwestward and generally 
maintain its intensity through Tue, before becoming a post 
tropical remnant low. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Fay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean analyzed along 72W, south of 
16N into western Colombia, moving west at 10 kt. There is no
convection over the central basin associated with this wave at
this time. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 20N16W to 20N24W to 07N36W. The 
ITCZ extends from 07N38W to 08N50W to 12N60W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 05N to 17N between 43W and 61W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The remnants of a dissipated stationary front persist E to W
across the central Gulf along about 25N. Abundant low level 
moisture embedded in southeasterly flow from the Yucatan is 
converging south of 25N, under favorable upper level conditions is
producing scattered moderate isolated strong convection S of 
24.5N between 85W and 93.5W southward to 20N and the NW Yucatan. 
At the surface, a weak 1014 mb high is centered over the eastern-
central Gulf, while a lingering surface trough extends across the
SW basin along about 95W. A weak cold front is slowly sinking 
into the coastal waters from Mobile Bay to near Mexico Beach, 
Florida. Light to gentle winds prevail across the entire basin, 
except moderate winds near the convection N of the Yucatan. Seas
basin-wide are 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate 
seas will become gentle to moderate SE winds across the basin 
tonight and prevail through Tue night as high pressure builds over
the southeast U.S. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh winds 
and building seas over mostly the western Gulf starting midweek, 
as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving 
through the Southern Plains and approaching the northwest Gulf by 
late Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient persists across the basin, due to a
weakening front N of the region, and is translating to gentle to 
moderate trades over the eastern and central basin as well as in 
the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. 
Seas are 3 to 5 ft across east and central portions and 3 to 4 ft 
in the Gulf of Honduras, and less than 3 ft elsewhere. Seas are 4
to 6 ft across these Atlantic waters and passages.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient, due to the presence
of a weakening frontal boundary N of the region, will support 
gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean through tonight. 
Expect gentle to moderate E to SE winds thereafter through midweek
as the high pressure build north of the area. Looking ahead, the 
pattern will allow moderate to fresh winds and building seas by 
Thu, with rough seas possible in the Yucatan Channel and far NW 
Caribbean Thu night through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Depression Fay. 

A weakening frontal trough remains stationary across the NW 
Atlantic waters from 31N68W and meanders southwestward into the
central Bahamas. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms 
continue about this feature, from 23.5N to 31N between 61W and 
76W. Light to gentle winds are found to the NW of the trough. To 
the E of it, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are noted to
64W. T.D. Fay is centered near 28.5N 43.8W, and is sandwiched in 
between to high centers at 31N49W and 28N36W. This pattern is 
leading to gentle to moderate NE to E winds S of 21N between 35W 
and the Lesser Antilles, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Further east, the 
1011 mb remnants of Gonzalo are near 21N24W, and is still 
producing moderate to fresh cyclonic winds and rough seas to the N
and W of the center. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate winds 
and seas dominate.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms will persist along a trough reaching from 29N68W to
the central Bahamas offshore waters. A dissipating stationary 
front W of the trough, and reaching from 31N68W to Andros Island
will dissipate toight. Moderate SW winds and moderate seas ahead 
of the front will continue to diminish today. Looking ahead, high 
pressure will build north of the area supporting moderate to fresh
E winds and 3-5 ft seas south of 25N by midweek.

$$
Ramos