000
AXNT20 KNHC 120311
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Nov 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from 04N15W to 08N58W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 08N between 15W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A few showers and thunderstorms are active off Texas near a 1014
mb low pressure area centered near 27.5N96W. Weak 1017 mb high
pressure is centered farther east along the coast of Louisiana.
This pattern is supporting light to gentle breezes and 1-3 ft
seas, except for moderate to fresh NW winds off Veracruz where
seas are 2-4 ft. 

For the forecast, a strong cold front will reach the Texas coast 
tomorrow morning, then sweep across the basin through tomorrow 
night exiting the area early on Fri. Fresh to locally strong N 
winds are expected in its wake. High pressure will build southward
into the region this weekend, with increasing easterly winds as 
the high shifts eastward Sun. Strong E winds are likely across 
portions of the northern Gulf starting on Sun as the pressure 
gradient increases. Looking ahead, a second cold front should move
offshore the Texas coast Mon morning. The strong E winds will 
shift to mostly the NE Gulf Mon and Mon night as the front 
translates eastward across the Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergent flow aloft is supporting clusters of showers and 
thunderstorms from eastern Honduras to eastern Cuba. The pressure
gradient between high pressure centered north of the region and 
lower pressure over South America is leading to fresh to strong 
trades and 6-9 ft seas over the central Caribbean. Moderate trade 
winds and 4-6 ft persist elsewhere except for light breezes and 
2-3 ft seas over the northwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail over the central
and eastern Caribbean into Thu night, with mainly moderate winds  
elsewhere. The pressure gradient will diminish starting Fri as a 
cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel, leading to a weakening 
of the trades. Moderate NE to E winds are likely behind this front
over the northwestern Caribbean Sat and Sun. Looking ahead, fresh
to strong trades may become reestablished over the south central 
Caribbean early next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A line of showers and thunderstorms is active off northeast
Florida and north of the northern Bahamas ahead of a cold front
moving off the Florida coast. Farther south, divergent flow aloft
is supporting a larger cluster of showers and thunderstorms from
20N to 24N between 60W and 80W, impacting eastern Cuba, the
southern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Farther east,
a cold front reaches from near the northwestern Azores to 26N60W,
and another cold front extends from the Canary Islands to 22N40W.
Moderate to fresh winds and 8 to 12 ft seas are ongoing north of
the eastern front, north of 18N and east of 35W. Gentle to
moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas are noted elsewhere in a mix of
swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, a strong cold front is expected to move off the
southeastern U.S. coast tomorrow night accompanied by fresh to 
strong winds on either side of it. The front is expected to reach
from near 31N66W to the SE Bahamas by Sat morning, and from near 
31N55W to 25N65W and stationary to eastern Cuba by Sun morning. 
The cold front portion will shift east of 55W late Sun while the 
stationary portion weakens. On Sun, winds will briefly diminish 
below fresh over forecast waters. Looking ahead, a building 
Bermuda High should increase NE winds up to fresh to strong south 
of 27N west of 65W.

$$
Christensen