000
AXNT20 KNHC 051020
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Mar 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between 
a well established high pressure ridge over the northwestern 
Atlantic and low pressure over NW Colombia will continue to 
support fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds, and rough to very
rough seas across much of the central and southwestern Caribbean 
Sea through the middle or next week. Winds offshore of Colombia 
are expected to pulse to gale-force overnight through Sat night. 

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more 
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W and extends to
04N16W. The ITCZ extends from 04N16W to 00N30W to the coast of 
Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
00N to 06N between 16W and 30W. Scattered to numerous moderate to
strong convection is from 02S to 03N W of 34W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Broad surface ridging extends from the central Atlantic westward
into the Gulf, which is providing moderate to fresh E to SE winds
across the eastern half of the basin, and moderate or weaker 
winds W of 90W. Seas basin-wide are slight to moderate. Otherwise,
oil rigs platforms as well as buoy data are reporting dense fog
over the NW Gulf with visibility less than 2 nm.  

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend a broad ridge
southwestward into the Gulf through early next week, thus
supporting mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds basin-wide. Seas
will be slight to moderate through the forecast period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning 
in the south-central Caribbean. 

The pressure difference between high pressure well north of the
area and the NW Colombia low pressure maintains fresh to strong 
trades across much of the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate 
to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. Rough seas are analyzed in the 
central and portions of the SW Caribbean, with moderate seas in 
the eastern Caribbean and slight to moderate seas prevailing in 
the NW basin.

For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure will prevail N of the 
area into the weekend. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
the Colombian low will support fresh to near gale-force trades 
across the central and eastern Caribbean through Mon. Winds 
offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the overnight
hours through Sat night while fresh to strong NE winds in the 
Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba will pulse through early 
Sat evening. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong winds will 
pulse at night today through Sun night. Otherwise, rough seas in 
easterly trade wind swell over the tropical N Atlantic will 
continue through Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A 1037 mb high near 40N30W extends a ridge across much of the 
Atlantic, also supported by a 1027 mb high near 33N65W. As a 
result, fresh to strong trades and rough seas cover much of the 
Atlantic between the west coast of Africa and 55W between the 
Equator and 27N. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate to rough 
seas prevail between 55W and the southern Bahamas to the S of 
27N. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 
seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds 
will prevail S of 25N through Mon night, reaching strong speeds N 
of Hispaniola into the Windward passage. Rough seas will prevail 
within these winds and E of the central and southern Bahamas 
through Tue. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds can be expected 
elsewhere across the region. 

$$
Ramos