737 
AXNT20 KNHC 040533
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Apr 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high
pressure of 1033 mb located N of area and the Colombian Low will
continue to support fresh to near gale trades across the Caribbean
through Sat afternoon. The winds should reach gale force briefly
tonight just north of Colombia, with seas building to 13 or 14 
ft. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued 
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Gale Warning E of 35W: A Gale Warning remains in effect for the 
marine zone of Madeira in the Meteo-France forecast area through
04/03Z. The forecast calls for westerly winds at times 8 force of
the Beaufort Wind Scale. Very rough seas are expected within
these winds. These marine conditions are associated with a 990 mb
low pressure located NE of the Madeira Islands. For more details,
refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their 
website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and extends southwestward to 04N18W. 
The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to the coast of NE Brazil near
03S40W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is affecting 
coastal portions of Sierra Leone and Liberia. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 05N 
between 10W and 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge extends from the western Atlantic across Florida into the
Gulf region. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low
pressure over Mexico supports fresh to strong SE winds across 
most of the basin, particularly W of 85W. Seas are 8-10 ft across
areas W of 88W and N of 22N, with moderate seas prevailing
elsewhere across the Gulf.

For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda 
High and low pressure over N Mexico/Texas will continue forcing 
fresh to near gale SE winds across the basin through Sat 
afternoon. On Sat night, a strong late-season cold front will 
emerge off of the Texas coast. Fresh to near gale N winds and 
rapidly building seas will follow the front over the W Gulf on Sun
and Mon with N gales possible near Tampico on Sun morning. 
Looking ahead to Mon morning, the cold front will extend from the 
Florida panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche with N winds 
fresh to strong following the front and near gale NW winds off of 
Veracruz. By Tue morning, winds across the Gulf should drop to 
fresh or weaker as the cold front reaches the Yucatan Channel. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please, 
refer to the Special Features section for more details. 

The most recent satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to 
strong trade winds across much of the basin, with winds near gale
force occurring in the central Caribbean and also offshore NW 
Colombia. Seas are 8 to 12 ft over the central and eastern 
Caribbean based on altimeter data. Moderate seas dominate the 
remainder of the basin. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade 
wind flow is moving westward across the region producing isolated 
to scattered passing showers. 

For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient from the Bermuda 
High to the Colombian Low will continue to produce fresh to near 
gale trades across the Caribbean through Sat afternoon. The winds 
should reach gale force briefly tonight just north of Colombia. 
From Sat night through early next week, the Bermuda High weakens 
contributing toward reduced winds over the basin. However, strong 
trades will still continue north of Colombia, south of Hispaniola,
and over the Gulf of Honduras on Sun and Sun night. Rough to very
rough seas will accompany the winds. By Mon and Tue as the 
weakened Bermuda High shifts eastward, trades across the Caribbean
will be reduced to only moderate to fresh. Looking ahead, a cold 
front may reach the NW Caribbean Tue with winds shifting from 
southeasterly to northerly.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect E of 35W in the Meteo-France forecast
region. Please, refer to the Special Features section for more 
details. 

A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast waters at 31N42W and
continues to 28N63W. Fresh to strong NE winds follow the front. 
Another cold front extends from 31N10W to 25N20W to 27N30W.
Moderate to fresh SW winds and rough seas are ahead of the front 
while fresh to locally strong NW winds and very rough seas are 
observed in the wake of the front. Strong high pressure of 1033 
mb located near 42N54W dominates the remainder of the Atlantic 
forecast region. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas in the 6 
to 10 ft range are evident S of 23N and W of 40W along the 
southern periphery of the ridge. This include the Atlantic 
exposures and passages. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a strong Bermuda High will continue
to force fresh to strong trades south of 25N through Fri night. 
As the Bermuda High weakens on Sat through early next week, fresh 
to strong trades will be restricted to near the SE Bahamas and the
Windward Passage. Beginning Sat night, a large N swell will start
impacting the waters east of 60W and will subside through late 
Tue. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong S winds will develop 
off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night and Mon ahead of a 
cold front moving through the southeastern United States. The cold
front is forecast to move off of the coast Mon night, and reach 
from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by mid week, followed by fresh to 
strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas.

$$
Adams