000
AXNT20 KNHC 261638
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Oct 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a 1031 mb high 
pressure system over the eastern United States and a stationary 
front extending from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas supports a 
large area of strong winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, 
across much of the waters N of 27N and W of the front. Rough to
very rough seas in N to NE swell follow the front. The portion of
the front east of 70W is expected to begin to drift southeastward
Tue through Wed night as a cold front before becoming stationary 
again late this week. The aforementioned ridge will shift slowly 
eastward into the north Atlantic during this time. The frequent
gusts to gale-force will diminish tonight, however, fresh to strong
winds and rough to very rough seas in NE swell to the north of 
the front will persist through the period. Mariners are urged to 
remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions and take the 
necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas. Please, see
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website 
https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. 

Heavy Rainfall in the Northern Caribbean: Deep-layer troughing 
extending southward through the Bahamas into the NW Caribbean 
combined with abundant tropical moisture will support periods of 
heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, the southern 
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands into midweek. The trough
will gradually shift N and E early this week, while weakening. 
Very heavy rainfall will bring a potential for dangerous and life-
threatening flash flooding, particularly over portion of eastern 
Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic. Please refer to your 
local weather services and the International Desk at the Weather 
Prediction Center for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14.5N17W and extends
southwestward to 07.5N25W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N25W to 
07N41W, and then from 09N50W to 10N60W. A surface trough is 
analyzed from 14N44W to 06N45W. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed from 04N to 10N and between 22W and 30W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A tight pressure gradient between a 1031 mb high pressure system 
over the eastern United States and a stationary front extending 
into the Bahamas supports fresh to strong NE-E winds and rough 
seas over the E Gulf waters, including the Florida Straits. 
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a 1031 mb 
high pressure system over the eastern United States and a 
stationary front extending from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas 
supports fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas over the E 
Gulf waters, including the Florida Straits. This weather pattern 
will persist into midweek, followed by diminishing winds and seas 
into next weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas will prevail during much of the workweek. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Features section above for information on heavy
rainfall over eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. 

An upper-level low spinning over central Cuba combined with 
abundant tropical moisture supports a band of shower with embedded
thunderstorms across the central Caribbean and Hispaniola, 
including also the Windward Passage. Moderate to locally fresh 
easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring east of 72W. 
Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are also occurring over 
the Gulf of Honduras along with seas 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the upper-level low will drift eastward through
mid- week keeping the chance of showers and thunderstorms over 
the central Caribbean and Hispaniola. Meanwhile, the surface 
trough over the central Caribbean will drift westward over the 
next few days. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. will 
continue to build southward across Florida and the Gulf of America
through midweek, leading to moderate to fresh N winds and 
moderate seas across the western Caribbean W of the trough through
late Tue. Expect rough seas in large north swell across the 
Yucatan Channel through early Tue. Otherwise, moderate to fresh E 
to SE winds in the E Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate
speeds by tonight. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
about a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and on heavy
rainfall expected for the Turks and Caicos Islands and 
Hispaniola.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring
between 64W and 78.5W in association with the stationary front 
and surface troughs described in the Special Features section. 
South of the front, moderate to fresh SE to S winds and rough to 
very rough seas are occurring and extend eastward to 60W. Farther 
east, a cold front stretches across the central Atlantic and 
moderate easterly winds and rough seas are noted north of 29N and 
betwen 38W and 53W. The remainder of the basin is under a broad 
subtropical ridge that supports moderate to locally fresh easterly
trades winds south of 25N and seas of 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a tight pressure gradient between a
1031 mb high pressure system over the eastern United States and a
stationary front extending from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas 
supports a large area of strong winds, with frequent gusts to gale
force, across much of the waters N of 27N and W of the front. 
Rough to very rough seas in N to NE swell follow the front. The 
portion of the front east of 70W is expected to begin to drift 
southeastward Tue through Wed night as a cold front before 
becoming stationary again late this week. The aforementioned ridge
will shift slowly eastward into the north Atlantic during this 
time. The frequent gusts to gale-force will diminish tonight, 
however, fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas in NE 
swell to the north of the front will persist through the period. 
Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine 
conditions and take the necessary precautions to avoid these 
affected areas. 

$$
KRV