000
AXNT20 KNHC 010609
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Oct 1 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0550 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues
along 10N24W to 10N34W. The ITCZ extends from 10N40W to 07N52W to
07N58W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N
to 16N between 23W and 34W. Scattered moderate convection is in
the vicinity of a surface trough from 12N to 20N between 32W and 
43W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern 
United States extending a ridge E of 90W, and lower pressures in 
Texas and Mexico support moderate to fresh SE winds across the 
basin tonight. Seas are slight over the offshores and offshore
Veracruz and moderate to 6 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 
will linger in the eastern Gulf tonight and spread over much of 
the basin over the next few days. The pressure gradient across the
basin will weaken from west to east by Fri into the weekend as a 
frontal boundary approaches the western Gulf waters, possibly 
moving into the basin by the end of the weekend with weakening 
winds and subsiding seas ahead of it. Increasing winds and 
building seas are possible behind the very slow moving or stalling
front. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle to upper level low over the Yucatan Peninsula is drawing
abundant moisture from the E Pacific into the W Caribbean, which
continues to fuel scattered heavy showers and tstsms W of 75W.
Recent scatterometer data show gust to gale force winds in the
area of strongest convection located in the lee side of Cuba and
WSW of Jamaica. With a front and two surface trough over the W
Atlantic waters, the pressure gradient has diminished resulting in
moderate to fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean per 
recent scatterometer data. Elsewhere, except in the areas of
convection mentioned above, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas
basin-wide are moderate to 6 ft, except likely rough in the areas
of strong convection in the W Caribbean.

For the forecast, divergent flow aloft will support scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms W of 75W over the next few 
days. High pressure north of the area will support pulsing fresh 
to strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean and in the
Gulf of Honduras through the remainder of the week and into the 
weekend. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail in the rest of the 
basin. Later, a frontal boundary will slide into the Gulf of 
America and western Atlantic this weekend, resulting in a 
weakening pressure gradient across the Caribbean as the ridge 
retreats. Moderate to locally fresh winds will then dominate the 
basin into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Middle to upper level diffluent flow over the E Florida offshores
is supporting scattered showers across the central and northern
Bahamas and eastward to 65W. Farther east, the remnants of Fay,
analyzed as a surface trough near 53W are bringing scattered
showers and tstms to the offshores from 20N to 27N between 55W and
65W. In the central subtropical waters, a cold front extends from
31N42W SW to 28N47W where it stalls to 27N51W. Ahead of the front,
surface high pressure of 1021 mb is anchored near 27N41W. Finally,
a stationary front prevails over the Canary Islands to 27N20W to
31N31W. None of these frontal features show significant
convection. In terms of winds, moderate to fresh E winds prevail
in the Great Bahama Bank and Bahamas offshores as well as in the
vicinity of Fay remnants. Finally, moderate to fresh NNE winds are
between the NW coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands.
Moderate seas are across the subtropical Atlantic. 

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms will remain possible across the waters west of 70W 
through at least Fri. High pressure will persist across the region
into the weekend supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly 
winds south of 25N. Winds will pulse to strong speeds off northern
Hispaniola and at the entrance of the Windward Passage tonight 
and Thu night. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail elsewhere. 
Meanwhile, the remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay, currently 
approaching the offshore waters, will move west of 55W tonight. 
This area will continue to weaken and gradually dissipate by late 
this week. Looking ahead, a frontal boundary may reach the waters 
off NE Florida early next week, resulting in increasing winds and 
building seas behind the slow moving or stalling boundary.

$$
Ramos