000
AXNT20 KNHC 140430
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Sep 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W, south of 18N, 
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is found from 07N to 16N between 43W and 49.5W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of 
17N, moving westward at near 15 kt. A few showers are found ahead
of this wave between 10N and 13N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W and continues to 10.5N19W to 08N31W to 11N44W.
The ITCZ extends from 9.5N51W to near 12N67W. Scattered to locally
numerous moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 06N
to 12N between 11W and 22W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 22W and 34W, and from
05N to 11.5N between 35W and 45W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A middle to upper-level low is centered over the western gulf and
continue to promote unstable conditions and areas of active
convection across the basin. However, as has been the case in
recent nights, late afternoon-early evening convection has
diminished significantly in recent hours. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are occurring in a band over the central 
Gulf from 24.tN to 27N between 95W and the W coast of Florida.
Scattered strong evening convection occurring over southern Mexico
has drifted across the near shore coastal waters in the Veracruz
area, and across much of the southern Bay of Campeche. At the
surface, a 1017 mb high is analyzed near 28.5N86W, while a weak
surface trough extends from central Florida southwestward into 
the coastal waters offshore of Marco Island. A weak pressure 
pattern prevails over the basin with light to gentle anticyclonic 
flow over most of the basin, with 1-3 ft seas, and fresh NE flow 
along the NW and W coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, where seas are 
3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, weak ridging centered over the NE Gulf will 
persist into Tue, supporting relatively tranquil conditions 
across much of the basin. The exception will be the Bay of 
Campeche, where a diurnal trough will move westward offshore the 
Yucatan Peninsula each evening through late this week, bringing 
nightly pulses of fresh NE winds. Starting late Tue, stronger high
pressure building southward from the eastern United States will 
lead to increasing NE to E winds over the basin, with speeds 
reaching fresh to strong and rough seas over the northern Gulf Wed
through Thu night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Middle to upper-level low pressure is centered over Haiti, and
promoting unstable conditions over south and east portions of the
Caribbean. Multi-layered clouds with scattered showers and a few 
thunderstorms prevail over most of the eastern basin E of 71W,
across the Lesser Antilles to 58W. Scattered strong convection is
occurring across the SW Caribbean south of 13.5N from western
Panama to central Nicaragua. Weak high pressure across the NE Gulf
of America and the western Atlantic is combining with a 1006 mb
Colombian Low to sustain strong to near gale-force NE to E winds 
over much of the central Caribbean S of 16N. Rough seas of 7 to 11
ft are occurring in these waters. Fresh to strong NE to E winds 
and seas of 4-7 ft are found in the Windward Passage and Gulf of 
Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate 
seas are evident elsewhere south of 18N, including the eastern 
Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
prevail across the remainder of the NW basin.

For the forecast, the western Atlantic subtropical ridge centered
NE of the Bahamas and extending into the NE Gulf of America will
combine with lower pressure in Colombia to sustain fresh to strong
with locally near gale-force easterly trade winds, and moderate to
rough seas across much of the central Caribbean through the 
workweek. Strong winds are expected tonight in the Gulf of 
Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly breezes are 
expected over the next several days in the eastern Caribbean. 
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas 
are expected.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Of note, Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the ongoing 
easterly gap wind event through the Straits of Gibraltar. This 
warning will remain in effect through 14/06Z.

A low level trough persists across the central Atlantic, with
surface trough analyzed from 22N46W to 29N47W. A small and tight
deep layered upper low is centered just W of this trough near 
27.5N50W, and is supporting scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection from 24N to 30N between 43W and 49W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is also occurring near a pair of low level low
centers along 30N between 55W and 68W. Otherwise, weak ridging
continues from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas, yielding light to
gentle anticyclonic winds N of 24N and W of 65W, where seas are 3
ft or less, while moderate to fresh easterly trades are occurring
through the SE Bahamas and near the N coast of Hispaniola, where
seas are 3 to 5 ft. A relatively weak pressure gradient dominates
the tropical Atlantic with moderate or weaker winds across the 
waters between 30W and 65W, except moderate to fresh near the two 
tropical waves, and the surface trough along 46W-47W. Across the 
NE Atlantic waters moderate NE winds prevail from the Canary
Islands to 30W and N of 20N, with seas of 5 to 6 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a broad subtropical ridge dominates
much of the basin W of 50W, and will force fresh to locally 
strong easterly winds off Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage 
tonight and Mon night, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. On
Tue, strong high pressure building southward through the eastern 
United States will bring a cold front into the NW waters,
producing fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas building
6 to 9ft N of the Bahamas and W of 70W through Wed night. During 
the middle to later portion of the week, a trough of low pressure 
is forecast to move west- northwestward into the NE portion of the
waters, bringing active thunderstorms. 

$$
Stripling