000
AXNT20 KNHC 292345
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Jul 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W, south of 19N just
west of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. 
Any nearby convection is described with the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section below.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at around 20 kt. Any nearby convection is
described with the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below.

An eastern to central Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W, south
of 20N near the eastern Dominican Republic to western Venezuela, 
moving westward at around 20 kt. Any nearby convection is described
with the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below.

A now departed NW Caribbean tropical wave is along 90W, south of 
19N over the central Yucatan Peninsula, moving westward at around
15 kt. Any nearby convection is described with the Monsoon 
Trough/ITCZ section below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic from Mauritania at 19N16W
to 10N20W to 14N34W. The ITCZ extends from 14N34W to along the
northern coast of South America at 06.5N58W. Isolated to widely
scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 21W
and 31W, and from 05.5N to 10.5N between 44W and 58W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A persistent surface trough is from near Cape Coral, Florida to
the eastern Gulf near 26N88W. A cluster of scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted from 26N to 29N between 83W and 86W.
Otherwise, 1015 mb high pressure near 27N93W controls the basin
with light to gentle anticyclonic winds from northwest of the high
to the southeast of the high, with moderate return flow closer to
the coastal locations around the periphery of the high. Seas are 1
to 3 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain in control of the 
weather pattern across the Gulf region promoting gentle to 
moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be 
fresh NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula 
nightly into the weekend. A trough extends from Tampa, Florida to 
29N87W while a mid to upper level broad trough north of the area 
is slowly advancing southward toward a very moist and unstable 
Gulf airmass. This set-up will maintain active weather in the form
of scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the NE Gulf 
through the rest of the week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid to upper level feature is supporting moderate convection in
the NW Caribbean just southeast of the Yucatan Channel. Otherwise,
high pressure at the surface over the central Atlantic and low
pressure over northern Colombia supports the typical moderate to
fresh trades across the basin from 11N to 18N, except locally 
strong near northern Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are 
elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 8 ft from 10N to 18N to the east of 80W, 
and mainly 3 to 5 ft elsewhere except lower in the lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, the coverage area and strength of the trades 
will increase into Thu as the pressure gradient between the 
Atlantic ridge and the Colombian Low increases. By that time, 
expect fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas across 
most of the eastern and central Caribbean, with the strongest 
winds to near gale, or possible brief gusts to gale and highest 
seas offshore Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the 
Gulf of Honduras nightly through Fri. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal trough extends from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas.
Divergence aloft associated with an upper-level trough north of
our waters supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
within 120 nm of the trough axis. The remainder of the basin in
under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge anchored by a
1024 mb high pressure system near 30N50W. 

The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and frontal
trough support fresh to strong S-SW winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft 
north of 28N and west of 65W. Stronger winds and higher seas may 
be occurring near the stronger convection. Moderate to locally 
fresh easterly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted north of the
ITCZ and monsoon trough to 22N and west of 40W. In the far 
eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 4 to 7
ft are evident from 15N to 30N and east of 20W. Elsewhere, 
moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are 
prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will maintain a 
ridge farther south than usual, roughly along 24N-25N, through 
Fri. This, in combination with a frontal trough over the western 
Atlantic will support fresh to strong SW winds along with 
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms primarily north of
27N and west of 65W for the next several days. Fresh to strong 
trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night and into the 
mornings through the upcoming weekend.

$$
Lewitsky