078 
AXNT20 KNHC 220325
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Aug 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 23W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.  
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 24N 
between 22W and 27W.

A second tropical wave is along n eastern Atlantic tropical wave
has its axis along 45W south of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 
kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis.

A third tropical wave has its axis along 56W south of 20N moving 
westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted near
the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean along 79W south of 
20N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Convection is limited near 
the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 11N54W. The ITCZ 
extends from 10N46W to 11N54W. Outside of convection associated 
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is within
200 nm on either side of the monsoon trough between 34W and 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure continues to dominate the Gulf region with a 1017 mb
center near 24N89W. This pattern is supporting mainly light to 
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas. The highest seas of 3 
ft are noted over the Bay of Campeche based on altimeter data. 
Convection has flared-up over parts of Florida, the north-central
Gulf, and along the coast of Mexico roughly between Tuxpan and 
Veracruz. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this 
convective activity. 

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the
central Gulf will prevail into the middle of next week,
supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally
moderate seas. A surface trough will generate fresh to strong 
winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early 
evenings. These winds will spread westward away from the peninsula
at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the western half of the basin. 
Refer to the section above for details.

The pressure gradient between weak high pressure centered S of 
Bermuda and low pressure over northern Colombia is supporting 
fresh to strong trades over the most of the central Caribbean, 
with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, with the exception of 
gentle winds over the NW part of the basin. Seas are moderate, 
except 7 to 9 ft in the south-central Caribbean and slight seas 
over the northwest Caribbean. Shallow moisture embedded in the 
trade winds flow is moving across the region producing isolated to
scattered passing showers. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to sustain 
fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the south- 
central Caribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to
fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail over most of the rest 
of the basin, aside from the northwest basin where lesser winds 
will dominate. A tropical wave currently over the tropical 
Atlantic is expected to move across the eastern Caribbean Tue 
through early Wed, and across the eastern part of the central 
Caribbean during the rest of Wed. Another tropical wave may 
approach the Lesser Antilles and far eastern Caribbean late on 
Wed. These waves will enhance the trade wind flow across those 
waters. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical wave are moving westward between W Africa and the
Lesser Antilles. See the Tropical Waves section above for 
details.

A trough is analyzed over Florida, reaching the W Atlantic from
29N78W to 27N80W. To the E, a 1021 mb high is centered near
26N72W. A weak 1018 mb low is centered east-southeast of Bermuda 
near 30N56W. A surface trough extends from the low center to 
24N64W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near these 
features. A surface through is analyzed from 28N39W to 22N43W with
scattered showers. Elsewhere west of 55W, the subtropical ridge 
dominates, anchored by 1021 mb high pressure between Bermuda and 
the central Bahamas near 25N67W. Fresh E to SE winds are funneling
along the north coast of Hispaniola south of the ridge, 
supporting 3 to 5 ft seas. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast 
region is under the influence of a ridge with a 1028 mb high 
pressure located SW of the Azores near 35N37W. This system 
supports moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft, 
except fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas off the 
coasts of Mauritania and Senegal.

For the forecast west of 55W, the weak pressure gradient will 
support mostly light to gentle winds over most of the waters north
of 23N into early next week. Moderate to fresh trades are 
expected south of about 23N, highest off northern Hispaniola, 
through the period. These trades may pulse to fresh to strong 
speeds off northern Hispaniola at night through most of the 
forecast period. Meanwhile, the northern portion of a tropical 
wave is expected to move across the waters S of about 23N and E of
the Bahamas next week freshening the trade winds. Yet, the 
northern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE 
portion of the area Wed and Wed night increasing the trades over 
those waters. 

$$
ERA