000
AXNT20 KNHC 230614
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Jul 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Storm Bertha is centered near 29.4N 91.1W at 23/0300
UTC or 70 nm SW of New Orleans Louisiana, moving W at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 12 ft. 
Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring SW 
of the center of Bertha, particularly N of 24N west of 90W. On 
the forecast track, the center of Bertha will move near or along 
the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts through Thursday afternoon, 
and then move farther inland into Texas Thursday evening and 
Thursday night. Little change in strength is expected during the 
next day or so, and Bertha is forecast to maintain tropical storm 
intensity up until it reaches the upper Texas coast on Thursday. 
Bertha is expected to dissipate inland over Texas by Thursday 
night or Friday. Swells generated by Bertha will continue 
spreading westward along the northern Gulf Coast during the next 
few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf 
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your 
local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest 
Bertha NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave emerged off the west coast of Africa tonight. Its
axis is near 18W based on satellite imagery and wave diagnostics.
Scattered moderate convection extends from 06N to 20N between the
coast of W Africa and 20W.  

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 07N to 
21N with axis near 41W, moving westward around 20 kt. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is confined to the
monsoon/ITCZ region from 05N to 13N between 32W and 48W.

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles extending from 08N to
21N and with axis near 53W, moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. 
Convection is limited near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from coastal Senegal at
13N17W and extends southwestward to 09N29W. The ITCZ starts at 
08N42W and continues westward to 07N58W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection
is noted from 08N to 17N between 22W and 31W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Tropical Storm Bertha is along the Louisiana coast near 29.4N 
91.1W, or about 35 nm southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana at 11 PM
EDT. It is moving westward at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 
40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 
1002 mb. Please refer to the Special Features section for further
details on Tropical Storm Bertha. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, Bertha will move to near 29.2N 92.8W Thu 
morning, move inland to near 29.1N 95.6W Thu evening, then weaken 
to a remnant low near 29.0N 98.3W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri 
evening. In the wake of Bertha, a high pressure center will become
established over the NE Gulf through Fri before it shifts to the 
central Gulf afterward. The high pressure will provide for a light
to gentle wind flow across the basin, except for pulsing moderate
to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula and near NE Mexico and 
the Texas coast through the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The usual north-south pressure gradient over the Caribbean
although reduced due to a surface trough located E of the Bahamas
and extending into Hispaniola continue to support fresh to locally
strong winds in the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf 
of Venezuela. Seas are 5 to 8 ft with these winds. Moderate to 
locally fresh easterly winds are in the lee of Cuba, Windward
Passage and E Caribbean along with moderate seas. Elsewhere, 
trades are moderate or weaker with slight seas. 

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian
low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough 
seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast 
period. Fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage will diminish Thu. 
Fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras tonight, then 
at fresh to strong speeds at night beginning Sat. Moderate or 
weaker winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. 
Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of
Honduras Sat and Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from near 28N68W to just east of the 
Turks and Caicos. A second surface trough is to the east
extending from 22N60W to 28N57W. Both troughs are generating
scattered showers from 21N to 30N between 55W and 75W. Aside from
the rain, the troughs are freshening the winds in the same region
E of the Bahamas. High pressure dominates the remainder of the 
Atlantic forecast region. Its associated ridge combined with lower
pressures over NW Africa is promoting fresh to strong northerly 
winds between the Canary Islands and downwind to about 29N. Seas
with these winds are moderate to rough. In addition, the moderate
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure with the 
ITCZ and monsoon trough is supporting only moderate to locally 
fresh trades and seas 4 to 7 ft across the remainder of the waters
north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough 
will continue westward reaching the Bahamas Thu afternoon and to
central and South Florida Fri. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms will accompany the trough. Fresh trade winds are 
expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward
Passage through Sat night. Moderate or weaker winds along with 
moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. Looking ahead, a cold front 
will approach the waters east of northern Florida Sat night 
through Sun night, preceded by mostly fresh southwest winds north 
of about 29N and east of 75W.

$$
Ramos