000
AXNT20 KNHC 161016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jun 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Northwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL90): A trough of low
pressure extending across coastal portions of NE Mexico, across 
the Texas/Mexico border and into south Texas, continues to 
produce a large area of strong showers and thunderstorms from NE 
Mexico to SW Louisiana. This system is expected to move north-
northeastward during the next few days, and could re-emerge over 
the northwestern Gulf of America today through Wed. Environmental 
conditions there are expected to be marginally conducive for the 
formation of a short- lived tropical storm later today or on Wed. 
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across 
southern and eastern Texas, southern portions of Louisiana and 
Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over 
the next several days, which could produce widespread, life- 
threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and 
coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the 
northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings 
could be required later today. Additional information on this 
system can be found in products issued by your local National 
Weather Service Forecast Office or the NHC Key Messages.

This area has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in 
the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather 
Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO 
headers ABNT20 KNHC/TWOAT or at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is observed from 04N to 12N between 20W and 
32W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W-47W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
present from 04.5N to 09.5N and between 40W and 54W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 16N, moving 
westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 11N to 13.5N between 58W and 66W.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
found south of 14N and between 74W and 82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14.5N17W and continues southwestward to 05.5N34W. 
The ITCZ extends from 05.5N34W to 05.5N45W and then from 05.5N48W
to 06N57W. Convection is described in the TROPICAL WAVES section.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the potential for tropical cyclone formation in the NW Gulf of
America.

Abundant low level moisture continues to stream northward across
the western Gulf and is converging on the easter side of a trough
of low pressure extending from eastern Mexico into south Texas.
Favorable upper level conditions aloft continue to support
numerous large clusters of strong convection across coastal
sections and the near shore waters from NE Mexico to SW Louisiana.
The remainder of the basin is under the western extent of the 
Atlantic subtropical ridge extending across south Florida and into
the eastern Gulf. This pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh
SE winds and moderate seas to 6 ft, west of 90W and off northern 
Yucatan. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, the low pressure across NE Mexico and S Texas is
expected to move slowly NE during the next couple of days, and 
along the Texas coast, and possibly re-emerge over the NW Gulf 
today or Wed. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive 
for the formation of a short- lived tropical storm as this occurs.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected over the NW 
Gulf Tue through Thu as this systems moves through the area. 
Otherwise, a tightening pressure gradient over the basin will 
sustain fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf Tue 
night through late Thu night, and moderate to fresh winds over the
eastern Gulf. Winds will begin to diminish Fri as high pressure 
settles in over the eastern Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection continues early this morning across
eastern Cuba, the Windward Passage and into western Haiti, while a
few showers are across the Cayman Islands. The pressure gradient 
between the subtropical Atlantic ridge over the central Atlantic 
and lower pressures in northern South America is forcing fresh to
strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the central 
Caribbean, south of 17N. The strongest winds and highest seas are
noted off Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and 
moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of 
Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to 
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the Atlantic subtropical ridge will generally 
remain in place into this weekend. The pressure gradient across 
the region will sustain fresh to strong trade winds in the south- 
central basin through the forecast period, with highest winds and 
seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to
strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly 
through Sat, pulsing to near gale-force Wed night and Thu night. 
Gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the northwestern 
Caribbean will become SE at fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu
night, then will diminish through the weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic,
extending from 1022 mb high pressure southeast of the Azores,
southwestward into the central Atlantic and then westward along
26N and across south Florida. This pattern is supporting fresh to
locally strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of 
23N and between 65W and 75W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and 
moderate seas are occurring north of 28N and west of 67W. 
South of the ridge, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and 
seas of 5-8 ft are found south of 20N and west of 35W. In the far 
east, moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present
north of 18N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will change 
little through Fri, then begin to weaken Fri night. The related 
pressure gradient will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade 
winds south of 22N through Fri, diminishing slightly Fri night 
through Sat. Moderate to fresh SW winds offshore of northeast 
Florida to near 67W are occurring ahead of a surface trough. 
These winds will expand eastward to near 65W through Wed, as a 
weak frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. The front 
is expected to move offshore early Sat and stall offshore 
northeast Florida to Bermuda by Sun. Expect fresh to strong winds 
each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near 
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. 

$$
Stripling