000
AXNT20 KNHC 162222
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front has entered the far NW
Gulf and extends from 30N93W to 26N97W. Fresh to strong N winds 
and building seas follow the front, forecast to reach from near 
Tampa Bay, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by early Sat 
morning, and from the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf to the 
eastern Bay of Campeche by early Sun morning. The front will be 
just SE of the area on Mon where it will gradually dissipate. 
Strong gale force winds and rough to very rough seas are expected 
in the wake of the front over the west-central Gulf tonight, and 
over the southwest Gulf by Sat morning. Frequent gusts to gale-
force are forecast elsewhere NW of the front tonight into Sat 
morning. Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build over the 
lower Mississippi Valley behind the wake of the front, promoting 
fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the 
Gulf likely through Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers 
FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and extends SW
to 09N34W. The ITCZ extends from 05N45W to 05N54W. Scattered 
moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 11N between 30W-40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

See details above about a Gulf of America Gale Warning.

An upper-level trough over the south-central US and a surface 
trough in the western Gulf are supporting numerous showers and 
thunderstorms across much of the interior Gulf. Another surface 
trough along the Mexican coast supports scattered moderate 
convection offshore Veracruz. A cold front has entered the far NW
Gulf and extends from 30N93W to 26N97W. Fresh to strong N winds 
and building seas follow the front.

For the forecast, cold front is forecast to reach from near Tampa
Bay, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by early Sat morning,
and from the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf to the eastern 
Bay of Campeche by early Sun morning. The front will be just SE of
the area on Mon where it will gradually dissipate. Strong gale 
force winds and rough to very rough seas are expected in the wake 
of the front over the west-central Gulf tonight, and over the 
southwest Gulf by Sat morning. Frequent gusts to gale- force are 
forecast elsewhere NW of the front tonight into Sat morning. 
Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build over the lower 
Mississippi Valley behind the wake of the front, promoting fresh 
to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf 
likely through Tue. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper-level diffluence over the NW Caribbean is supporting 
numerous moderate to strong convection W of 80W. Otherwise, the 
seasonal pressure gradient is leading to moderate to fresh trades 
through the basin, with strong easterly winds offshore Colombia 
and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas prevail across much of
the Caribbean, with rough seas offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, as a cold front moves across the Western 
Atlantic and the Gulf of America, the pressure gradient will relax
across the basin. Under this weather pattern, expect moderate to 
fresh winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela with 
moderate to locally rough seas near the coast of Colombia tonight 
and Sat. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are 
forecast elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms 
associated with a surface trough will continue to affect the NW 
Caribbean tonight. Moisture associated with this feature will 
merge with the cold front moving across the Gulf this weekend. The
front will likely reach western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel by 
Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N45W to 28N50W, and then is 
stationary to 25N70W. Moderate to fresh SW winds, 7-9 ft combined 
seas in NW swell, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
active along the front east of 51W. To the south, a surface trough
is analyzed along 53W from 12N to 19N, with an upper level low 
nearby supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 
along 50W from 14N to 19N. To the northeast, a surface trough is 
analyzed from 27N37W to 20N39W with a 1011 mb low along the 
trough near 23N38W. These features are also driving fresh to 
strong SE winds E of the trough to about 30W and N of 20N. 
Diffluence aloft and east of this trough supports numerous showers
and thunderstorms from 17N to 27N between 25W and 35W. Elsewhere 
across the Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and seas are evident
across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure off the Carolinas 
will shift eastward ahead of a strong cold front that will move 
off the coast of northeast Florida by early Sat morning. The front
will reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida by early Sun 
morning, and from near 31N71W to western Cuba by early Mon 
morning, then stall and dissipate through early next week. Strong 
to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow 
the front affecting mainly the waters W of 65W through Tue. 

$$
Adams/Landsea