000
AXNT20 KNHC 240543
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Sep 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fay: Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Fay is centered
near 29.8N 40.0W at 24/0300 UTC or 810 nm W-SW of the Azores, 
moving W-SW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak 
seas to 11 ft are occurring within 75 nm across the NW 
semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
within 120 nm NE and 45 nm SW quadrants. Fay is forecast to 
maintain minimal tropical storm strength and move westward through
Fri morning then begin to weaken through this weekend.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): Surface low pressure is 
developing around 11.5N along a tropical wave with an axis around
19W-20W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N
to 15.5N, E of 23W. Recent satellite scatterometer data shows a
broad cyclonic circulation at the surface off the W coast of 
Africa, with peak winds around 25 kt in SW winds occurring S of 
10N. This low pressure may become a short-lived tropical 
depression on Thursday or Friday while it moves NW to N. However, 
strong upper-level winds should end the opportunity for 
development by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands 
should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas 
of heavy rain and flash flooding are possible there by Friday. 
This system has a medium chance of formation in the next 48 hours.

Heavy Rainfall in Central America: A mid to upper-level trough 
currently extends from the eastern Gulf of America across the 
Yucatan Peninsula and NW Caribbean, while relatively warm sea 
surface temperatures and abundant low level moisture are present. 
An elongated low level trough will prevail across this area during
the next several days, and aid in funneling enhanced tropical 
moisture across Central America and the western Caribbean, 
supporting periods of heavy rainfall through Sat the 26th. There 
is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest
rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme 
southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, 
western Honduras, El Salvador, southern and eastern Belize, as 
well as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Currently, heavy
rainfall is ongoing from northern Honduras, E of 87W, north-
northeastward across the Cayman Islands and into the southern
coastal waters of Cuba, and across Andros Island and the 
remainder of the NW Bahamas W of 75.5W. Heavy rainfall across 
these regions will create the possibility of life- threatening 
flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather 
services as well as the International Desk at the Weather 
Prediction Center for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

See Special Features section above for information on a tropical
wave in the far eastern Atlantic along 19N-20N that has potential
for tropical formation. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 47W, S of 16W,
moving west at around 10 kt. Isolated clusters of moderate 
convection are noted within 60 nm of the wave axis along the
monsoon trough from 09N to 11N.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 15N into
southern Venezuela, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted S of 11.5N between 60W and 64W, while
numerous moderate to strong convection is near the wave axis well
inland from 01N to 08N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and
meanders southward to 1010 low pressure near 11.5N20W then
continues westward to 10.5N37W to 08N59W. The ITCZ extends from 
08.5N48W continues to the coast of Guyana near 09N58W. Beyond
convection associated with the tropical wave described above,
scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N
between 23W and 33W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 09N to 10.5N between 49W and 54W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Deep-layered upper troughing continues across the eastern Gulf
from the coastal Carolinas across N Florida to the eastern Bay of
Campeche. Multi-layered clouds and scattered moderate convection
is noted from the Yucatan Peninsula northeastward across the 
Straits of Florida and south Florida and into the Bahamas. To the
west, widely scattered showers are occurring along a surface 
trough across southwest portions from Cabo Rojo, Mexico the the 
central Bay of Campeche. At the surface, weak high pressure 
prevails across the northern Gulf, ahead of an approaching cold 
front extending just inland across the northern Gulf states and 
across the coastal waters of the Florida Big Bend. Gentle to 
moderate E-NE to E winds dominate the Gulf N of 25N, with 2-4 ft 
seas. Light to gentle winds prevail south of 25N, except for 
moderate N to NE winds along the NW coast of the Yucatan. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate gentle 
to moderate winds across the Gulf through Thu. An upper-level 
trough will support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the 
SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at least the next couple of
days. A frontal boundary is forecast to move into the NE Gulf Thu
night and Fri and produce a slight increase in winds and seas. 
The front will shift southward before stalling over the SE Gulf 
this weekend. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
upper-level low pressure across the far western Caribbean,
and expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of 
Central America into the weekend.

To the east, deep-layered low pressure extends from the A weak 
pressure pattern prevails from the central Atlantic southwestward
to northern Venezuela. A low level trough is moving across Puerto
Rico and interacting with the upper trough to produce scattered
showers dotting the waters surrounding Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Island and portions of the eastern Caribbean. A tropical wave is
across the southeast Caribbean and mostly impacting interior
portions of Venezuela with numerous strong showers and
thunderstorms. 

At the surface, high pressure across the central Atlantic extends
a weak ridge into the Bahamas, producing a weak pressure gradient
across the Caribbean basin. Moderate trades prevail across most 
of the basin S of 16N and E of 79W, while fresh to locally strong 
winds are S of 13.5N to the coasts of NW Venezuela and extreme NE
Colombia. Seas in these winds are 4 to 7 ft, and 3 to 5 ft in the
moderate winds. Outside of convection, light to gentle winds and 
slight seas prevail elsewhere across the SW and NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will persist across
the basin to generate moderate to fresh trades over the S central
Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. An upper-level
trough will support scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for the next couple of days. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on Tropical 
Storm Fay over the central Atlantic well east-southeast of 
Bermuda.

A deep-layered upper trough extending from the middle Atlantic
states of the U.S. S-SW across the eastern Gulf of America
continues to support scattered to locally numerous showers and 
thunderstorms from the NW Caribbean across the NW and central
Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters. Abundant low-level tropical
moisture is across much of the Atlantic W of 68W, trapped to the 
south of an approaching cold front offshore of the SE U.S. and is
interacting with the upper trough. A surface trough has developed
within this convection across the NW Bahamas through the Straits
of Florida. A weak frontal boundary has become stationary across
the NW waters from 31N75W to northern Florida. Moderate to fresh
N-NE winds are filling in behind this front W of 75W, building
seas to 5-7 ft. Another upper- level low is drifting westward 
near 26N53W, and extends a trough SW across the eastern Caribbean.
This feature is interacting with several surface troughs in the 
central Atlantic resulting in an area of scattered moderate 
convection from 21N to 26.5N between 50W and 56W. Outside of this 
convection, a weak pressure gradient continues across much of the 
Atlantic, as high pressure remains centered across the far NE 
Atlantic offshore of Europe. This pattern is sustaining mostly 
gentle to moderate trades S of 20N and variable light to gentle 
winds elsewhere W of 35W, except for moderate SE to S winds over 
the area N of 30N between 60W and 70W. Seas are 2 to 5 ft W of
60W, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere across the basin. However, swell
generated from Tropical Storm Fay is producing seas of 6 to 11 ft
N of 27N between 36W and 43W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will support 
gentle to moderate trades across forecast waters through tonight.
An upper-level trough will produce scattered showers and 
thunderstorms west of 65W for the next couple of days. Deepening
low pressure across the western Atlantic will push a frontal 
boundary off the SE United States coast late tonight. The front 
will shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the straits of 
Florida Sat night before starting to weaken. Fresh to strong winds
and large N to NE swell will follow the front on Thu and Fri, 
before beginning to slowly subside Sat through Sun. 

$$
Stripling