283 
AXNT20 KNHC 300546
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Sep 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 81W, south 
of 19N into western Panama, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is in the W Caribbean between 76W and 84W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N16W to 14N30W to 10N36W. The 
ITCZ extends from 10N36W to 07N47W to 07N59W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 18W and 27W, and from
06N to 18N between 27W and 42W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak surface ridge is building over the eastern half of the Gulf
tonight. A mid to upper level trough E of 90W continues to 
support a trough that extends across the Florida Keys to the SE 
basin near 25N86W and its associated scattered showers E of 88W.
Recent scatterometer data show fresh to locally strong SE winds
over the SE waters S of the trough axis where the strongest
convection has been present. The scatterometer data also show
moderate to fresh SE winds over the NW basin and similar winds of
gentle to moderate speeds in the Bay of Campeche. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate return flow will prevail, 
except moderate to locally fresh over the western Gulf tonight. 
Winds will increase to moderate to locally fresh across the basin 
by Wed evening as the pressure gradient tightens. The gradient 
will weaken from west to east by the end of the week into the 
weekend as a front approaches the western portion, possibly moving
into the basin by the end of the weekend with weakening winds and
subsiding seas ahead of it. Increasing winds and building seas 
are possibly behind the very slow moving front. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain active over the SW and
NW Caribbean, associated with a mid to upper trough over the E 
Gulf of America extending a base over the W Caribbean. This shower
activity is also associated with a tropical wave currently moving
over the Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica offshore waters. A
1018 mb high SE of Bermuda and a bulding ridge over the E Gulf of
America are supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds basin-wide,
except for locally strong winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf
of Venezuela. Seas basin-wide are mainly 4 to 6 ft, except to 7
ft in the SW basin and vicinity of the tropical wave. Seven ft
seas are also offshore Colombia. 

For the forecast, the tropical wave and divergent flow aloft will
support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms W of 75W 
over the next few days. High pressure north of the area will 
support pulsing fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the 
central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through the 
remainder of the week. Winds may weaken there by the upcoming 
weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes slightly. Moderate to 
locally fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except gentle to 
moderate in the SW Caribbean and the Lee of Cuba. Moderate seas 
will dominate the basin, except slight in areas of weakest winds, 
and also locally rough off NW Colombia late tonight.
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers continue to affect the Great Bahama Bank and the
Bahamas as well as the offshores N of 27N between the Florida
coast and 70W. Farther east and to the SE of Bermuda, a 1018 mb
high is centered near 29N60W, which is supporting light to gentle
winds N of 25N. South of 25N, a tighter gradient of pressure due
to the passage of a wave over the W Caribbean, is supporting
moderate to fresh easterlies along with moderate seas to 6 ft.
Over the central subtropical waters, the remnants of Tropical
Depression Fay are centered near 23N48W with a 1012 mb low
generating scattered showers from 21N to 24N between 47W and 51W.
Finally, over the E subtropical waters, a weak stationary front
extends from 30N19W to 27N29W to 26N38W. However, no shower
activity is associated with it as well as the remnant low of
Gonzalo located near 22N28W, which is anchored by a 1015 mb low
near 22N28W. Otherwise, except fresh to strong winds within 75 nm
N semicircle of the Fay remnant low, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and a few 
thunderstorms will persist across the Bahamas offshores as broad 
troughing lingers in the region through midweek. High pressure SE 
of Bermuda will continue to build over the western Atlantic and 
support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N Wed through 
Fri. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin
by the weekend as the gradient weakens slightly. Meanwhile, the 
remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay currently east of the 
offshore waters may move west of 55W by Wed night. Slight to 
moderate seas will dominate through the forecast period. 

$$
Ramos