700 
AXNT20 KNHC 261012
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Oct 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0955 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high
pressure building southward through the Mid-Atlantic U.S. and low
pressure south of Bermuda and an associated stationary front
extending into the Bahamas will continue to induce widespread
strong to gale-froce NE to E winds and very rough seas to 19 ft. 
Gales will be present N of 27N between 65W and 72W, with a 
broader area of very rough seas N of 24N and W of 60W. The 
portion of the front east of 70W is expected to begin to drift 
southeastward Tue through Wed night as a cold front before 
becoming stationary again late this week. The aforementioned ridge
will shift slowly eastward into the north Atlantic during this 
time. The gale-force winds will diminish tonight, however, fresh 
to strong winds and rough to very rough seas in NE swell to the 
north of the front will persist through the period. Mariners are 
urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions and 
take the necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas. 
Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. 

Heavy Rainfall in the Northern Caribbean: Deep-layer troughing 
extending southward through the Bahamas into the NW Caribbean 
combined with abundant tropical moisture will support periods of 
heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, the southern 
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands into midweek. The 
trough will gradually shift N and E early this week, while 
weakening. Very heavy rainfall will bring a potential for 
dangerous and life- threatening flash flooding, particularly over 
portion of center Cuba and Haiti. Please refer to your local 
weather services and the International Desk at the Weather 
Prediction Center for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 11N15W to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 06N37W, and
then from 08N44W to 08N55W. A surface trough is analyzed from
14N36W to 07N41W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from
02N to 09N and between 17W and 27W. Similar convection is noted
east of the surface trough.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A tight pressure gradient between a 1032 mb high pressure system 
over the eastern United States and a stationary front extending 
into the Bahamas supports fresh to strong NE-E winds and rough 
seas over the E Gulf waters, including the Florida Straits.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned tight pressure gradient will
sustain fresh to strong NE-E winds and rough seas over the E Gulf
waters, including the Florida Straits through midweek, followed 
by diminishing winds and seas into next weekend. Elsewhere, gentle
to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas will prevail 
during much of the workweek..

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Features section above for information on heavy
rainfall over eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. 

The combination of a deep mid- to upper-level trough extending 
from the western Atlantic to the NW Caribbean and a surface trough
over the SE Bahamas and E Cuba and Hispaniola result scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms between 69W and 75W, impacting
E Cuba and Hispaniola. Similar convection is noted off NW Colombia
and E Panama. Rough seas are evident in the Yucatan channel. Moderate
to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring east of 
70W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 
seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned mid-to upper-level trough will
drift eastward through Wed, supporting scattered to numerous 
showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean and Windward 
Passage. Meanwhile, a surface trough over the central Caribbean 
will drift westward over the next few days. Strong high pressure 
across the eastern U.S. will continue to build southward across 
Florida and the Gulf of America through midweek, leading to 
moderate to fresh N winds and moderate seas across the western 
Caribbean W of the trough through late Tue. Expect rough seas in 
large north swell across the Yucatan Channel late tonight through 
early Tue. Otherwise, moderate to fresh E-SE winds in the E 
Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by tonight. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
about a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and on heavy
rainfall expected for the Turks and Caicos Islands and 
Hispaniola.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring
between 67W and 78W in association with the stationary front and
surface troughs described in the Special Features section. South
of the front, moderate to fresh southerly winds and rough to very
rough seas are occurring and extend eastward to 60W. Farther east,
a stationary front stretches across the central Atlantic and
moderate easterly winds and rough seas are noted north of 29N and
betwen 35W and 60W. The remainder of the basin is under a broad
subtropical ridge that supports moderate to locally fresh easterly
trades winds south of 25N and seas of 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a tight pressure gradient between a robust ridge
over the NW Atlantic and the eastern United States and a stationary
front extending from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas supports a 
large area of strong to gale-force NE-E winds across the western 
and central offshore zones, along and north of the stationary 
front. Very rough seas to 19 ft are occurring north of the front. 
The portion of the front east of 70W is expected to begin to drift
southeastward Tue through Wed night as a cold front before 
becoming stationary again late this week. The aforementioned ridge
will shift slowly eastward into the north Atlantic during this 
time. The gale-force winds will diminish tonight, however, fresh 
to strong winds and rough to very rough seas in NE swell to the 
north of the front will persist through the period. Mariners are 
urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions and 
take the necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas. 

$$
Delgado