000
AXNT20 KNHC 280930
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Oct 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0925 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell N of Bahamas: A tight pressure gradient between
a 1035 mb high pressure system over New England and a stationary 
front extending from SE of Bermuda to a 1011 mb low in the NW 
Bahamas supports fresh to near gale-force NE winds and rough to 
very rough seas N of the front and W of the low. Peak seas are
near 17 ft N of the NW Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are occurring N of the front and S of the front 
between 65W and 72W. Strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough 
seas will persist N of 28N and W of 65W through Thu night as the 
low pressure moves southwestward and the front weakens. Mariners 
are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions and
take the necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas. 

Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues to 11N20W. The ITCZ 
extends from 11N20W to 08N37W and to 08N54W. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 12N and between
22W and 53W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure over New England extends a ridge across the Gulf 
waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pres over 
the Bahamas is supporting moderate to locally strong NE winds E 
of 90W. Moderate to locally rough seas are over these waters. 
Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are found west of 90W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will 
continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas 
in the E Gulf into late this week. Winds and seas will gradually 
diminish into Sat as the ridge slides eastward. Looking ahead, 
another robust high pressure system will reach New England late 
this weekend and early next week allowing winds and seas to 
increase in the NE Gulf. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas will prevail through the forecast period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continues to affect
the central Caribbean waters, extending from northern Colombia to
E Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Generally dry conditions prevail
elsewhere. A weak pressure gradient allows for moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, a surface trough along 80W will drift westward 
and weaken over the next couple of days. Ample tropical moisture 
and upper-level divergence support scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the central Caribbean, especially over the 
Dominican Republic. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade 
winds in the E Caribbean will continue over the next few days, 
gradually extending westward through the week and into the 
upcoming weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
significant swell causing very rough seas north of the Bahamas.

E of 70W, the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical
ridge that supports moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-8 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, looking ahead, weak low pressure 
will develop southwest of Bermuda by Fri, then lift northeastward 
and reinforce the frontal boundary over the waters between the 
central Bahamas and Bermuda. Expect fresh to strong NE-E winds and
seas to 10 ft N of the front through early next week. 

$$
Delgado