000
AXNT20 KNHC 201000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Oct 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant N Swell: A 1001 mb low pressure centered 
between the Outer Banks and Bermuda continues to produce a large 
area of strong to gale-force winds north of our area. A cold front
extends from this low to 34N63W and continues as a stationary
front to 31N67W and to the Florida Straits. Fresh to locally 
strong northerly winds and rough to very rough seas, peaking 
around 14 ft, are noted behind the front south of 31N. These seas
will subside below 12 ft this morning. Seas to 8 ft will persist 
thereafter over the waters west of 65W and north of 25N through 
Thu night.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at 
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further 
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues west-southwestward to 09N25W. 
The ITCZ extends from 09N25W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is observed from 08N to 12N and east 
of 25W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered showers and tstms persist this morning over
the southwest Gulf and off the Yucatan Peninsula, along a trough
reaching from north of Tampico, Mexico to Ciudad del Carmen,
Mexico. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured strong
winds off Veracruz, where seas are estimated to be 8 ft.
Elsewhere, 1028 mb high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley is
supporting moderate to fresh NE winds and mainly 5-7 ft seas
across the Gulf. 

For the forecast, the high pressure over the eastern U.S. will 
continue to support fresh to NE winds are across the basin 
through the latter part of the week, except for strong NW to N 
winds over the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz through Wed. Looking 
ahead, strengthening high pressure over the eastern U.S. will 
support strong to near-gale NE winds and rough seas over the 
eastern Gulf Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Trade wind convergent and favorable divergent flow aloft is
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
southwest Caribbean from Colombia to Nicaragua. An upper trough is
also supporting a few thunderstorms from Jamaica to Grand Cayman
and in the Windward Passage. High pressure over the eastern U.S.
is maintaining moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Yucatan
Passage. Elsewhere, relatively weak pressure gradient is 
supporting only limited fresh trade wind flow off Colombia with 
4-6 ft seas, with gentle to moderate trade winds and 2-4 ft 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the eastern U.S. will 
continue to support moderate to fresh NE winds across the far 
northwest Caribbean and Yucatan Channel through late today. These 
winds will diminish by mid week as the high pressure weakens, 
leaving gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas 
across the basin through mid week. Looking ahead, expect moderate 
to fresh winds across the south-central Caribbean by Thu, and 
fresh winds across the far northwest Caribbean by late Sat as high
pressure builds again north of the area. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for information on 
significant north swell behind a cold front in the western 
Atlantic. 

A broad upper-level low near 25N52W is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms from 20N to 31N and between 43W and 
57W. A surface trough reaches from 28N49W to 1010 mb low pressure 
near 25N56W to 21N60W. This pattern is supporting moderate to 
locally strong easterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft north of 26N and 
between 45W and 55W. Farther east, scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are active along a weak surface trough extends from
the Canary Islands to 1012 mb low pressure near 27N21W to 24N25W.
Gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere across 
the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and
large NE swell persist west of a stationary reaching from 31N67W 
to the central Bahamas to northwest Cuba. Winds will diminish 
tonight into Wed as the front dissipates, and lingering swell will
subside through Thu. Looking ahead, a tightening pressure 
gradient developing late Fri is expected to induce widespread near
to gale-force NE winds over the waters north of about 25N well 
into the weekend. Seas with these winds are expected to quickly 
build to rough to very rough. Mariners should monitor the latest 
marine forecasts, and have avoidance plans in place. 

$$
Christensen