000
AXNT20 KNHC 242342
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Oct 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient will continue 
to develop across the northwestern zones tonight into Sun 
as strong high pressure builds southward over the western 
Atlantic, and low pressure deepens near the southern Bahamas 
southwest of a cold front along 30N moving slowly southeastward 
into the area. This setup is expected to induce widespread fresh 
to near gale-force northeast to east winds and rough to very 
rough seas, with winds reaching gale-force over much of the 
waters north of 27N and between 60W and 76W early Sun through 
early on Mon. The front is expected to stall from near Bermuda 
to the central Bahamas by Mon, with winds and seas diminishing 
very slowly through mid week. Mariners are urged to remain alert 
to these dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary 
precautions to avoid the affected areas. Please, see the latest 
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further 
details. 

Heavy Rainfall Event in the Northern Caribbean: A mid to upper- 
level trough over the northern Caribbean combined with abundant 
tropical moisture will support periods of heavy rain over eastern
Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the southern Bahamas, and the Turks 
and Caicos Islands through Mon. By Sun, model guidance indicates 
that the trough will begin to weaken and meander northward. The 
main areas that are expected to be impacted by abundant tropical
moisture and heavy rainfall will then shift to north and east of
Cuba over the southern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, the Windward 
Passage and Hispaniola. The heavy rainfall will raise concerns 
for dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding. Please refer 
to your local weather services and the International Desk at the 
Weather Prediction Center for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 
15N17W southwestward to 07N24W, where it transitions to the ITCZ
to 07N35W. It resumes near 09N41W to 10N51W and to 10N60W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 09N 
to 16N between 22W-35W, and from 06N to 12N between 31W-40W. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ 
between 41W-50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern 
United States that extends southwestward toward the central and 
western Gulf, and a trough that is east of the Bahamas is 
sustaining moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds basin-
wide along with moderate seas, with the exception of slight seas 
over the NW Gulf coastal waters and offshore Veracruz. 

For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between the 
high pressure and low pressure that is forecast to deepen near 
the central Bahamas will bring fresh to strong NE winds and rough
seas over the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits this 
evening through early Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
about the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, 
Hispaniola, and Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos and locations farther
east through the early part of the upcoming week.

A trough extends from a western Atlantic weak low pressure of 1014 
mb near 25N74W south-southwestward to across eastern Cuba, and 
continues to across western Jamaica and to near 15N78W. The 
combination of this feature with upper-level diffluence east of a 
mid to upper-level trough that extends from Florida to the 
northwestern Caribbean supports scattered moderate to strong 
convection between Haiti and 14N between 72W and 76W. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the southwestern 
Caribbean mainly due to the eastern segment of the East Pacific 
monsoon trough. The gradient along the SE periphery of the Gulf of 
America high pressure is allowing for moderate to fresh north to 
northeast winds to be over the northwest portion of the basin, 
including in the Yucatan Channel. Mostly moderate north winds are 
within about 60 nm offshore Nicaragua. Latest satellite altimeter 
data indicates slight seas over the southwestern and northwestern 
Caribbean. The Azores High ridge extends to the central Atlantic 
subtropical waters. Its related gradient is supporting moderate to 
fresh east to southeast winds east of about 75W, where seas are 
maxing out to around 7 ft. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned mid to upper level trough 
will slowly shift eastward through Mon and support scattered to 
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the north- central 
Caribbean and Windward Passage. Meanwhile, a broad surface trough
over the central Bahamas extends southwestward across Jamaica 
and into the SW Caribbean, and will drift eastward through Tue. 
Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. will build southward
across Florida and the Gulf of America through the weekend and 
lead to fresh north to northeast winds and building seas across 
the western Caribbean W of the trough. Expect rough seas in large
N swell across the Yucatan Channel Mon through Tue. Little 
change is expected elsewhere. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
about a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and a heavy rain
expected for the southern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos 
Islands, the Windward Passage and Hispaniola.

A stationary front extends from near 31N56W to 29N69W and to near
27N75W. Strong to near gale-froce northeast to east winds are 
north of the boundary along with seas of 9 to 14 ft in northeast
swell. A trough extends from a 1014 mb low pressure near 25N74W 
south-southwestward to across eastern Cuba and continues farther
south into the western Caribbean. Another trough extends from 
the low northeastward to near 30N64W. Another trough is analyzed 
from near 28N60W to 20N69W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted from 20N to 31N between 62W and 73W. To the NE 
of this broad area of low pressure, a stationary front extends from 
near 31N59W to 27N74W. The remainder subtropical Atlantic is under 
the influence of the Azores high pressure ridge, which is supporting 
moderate to fresh northeast to east winds east of about 55W, except 
locally strong in the vicinity of the Canary Islands and near Cape 
Verde.

For the forecast west of 55W, a tightening pressure gradient will
continue to develop across the northwestern zones tonight 
through Sun as strong high pressure builds southward over the 
western Atlantic, and low pressure deepens near the central 
Bahamas, and just S of a stationary front along 28N-29N. This 
setup is expected to induce widespread strong to near gale-force 
northeast to east winds and very rough seas building to 20 ft, 
with gale-force winds expected over much of the waters north of 
27N and between 60W and 76W early Sun through Mon morning. The 
front is expected to stall from near Bermuda to the central 
Bahamas on Mon, with winds and seas diminishing very slowly 
through Thu. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these 
dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions 
to avoid these affected areas. 

$$
Aguirre