000
AXNT20 KNHC 131759
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Aug 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between subtropical
high pressure across the western Atlantic along 27N and lower 
pressure over northern South America will tighten late this week, 
behind a passing tropical wave, increasing trade winds across the
eastern and central Caribbean, and forcing gales to develop Fri 
evening in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia. Gales will
prevail Fri night then diminish below gale-force Sat morning. 
Very rough seas to 15 ft will build near and downwind of these 
gales in the southwest Caribbean Fri night into early Sat. Please 
see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

Invest AL92: Showers and thunderstorms have become less organized
in association with a tropical wave located along 45W. In 
addition, recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the 
system does not have a closed circulation, but did show strong 
winds north of the low to 20N, between 37W and 50W, with rough 
seas to 10 ft. This system is expected to move into a region of 
strong upper-level winds and dry air, and the development chances 
appear to be decreasing. This system currently has a medium chance
of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Interests in 
the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system as 
gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible Friday night and 
Saturday, regardless of development.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 28W, from 06N to 20N, moving 
west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 08N to 14N between 25W and 35W. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend 
while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the 
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave extends from NW Venezuela 
across the western Dominican Republic, moving westward at about 15
kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 15N to 
25N between 67W and 73W.

The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W,
southward across central Cuba to Panama, moving westward at 
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is impacting the waters
between Cuba and Jamaica, and also W of Jamaica to about 82W.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W and extends 
southwestward through a 1010 mb low pressure near 11N45W to 
06N56W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 06N to 12N and E of 21W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, 
convection near these features is primarily associated with the 
tropical waves and special feature described above. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure prevails over the northern Gulf waters, anchored by
a 1018 mb high near 27N86W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas
prevail across the NE Gulf. Mainly moderate E to S winds, with 
slight to moderate seas, prevail elsewhere. A diurnal surface 
trough has moved offshore the Yucatan Peninsula and into the
central Bay of Campeche, triggering scattered moderate convection
along the northern end of the trough axis. Behind the trough, 
fresh SE winds prevail.

For the forecast, a weak high pressure should remain over the N 
Gulf for the next several days. A nightly surface trough will move
westward off of the Yucatan peninsula into the SW Gulf, causing 
fresh to locally strong NE winds. Elsewhere, winds and seas should
be quiescent for the next several days.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning
that has been issued for portion of the south-central basin
effective Fri night. 

The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure along
27N and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds 
over the south central Caribbean S of 17N. Rough seas to 8 ft prevail
over these waters. Fresh to locally strong trade winds and 
moderate seas to 6 ft prevail over the northeast Caribbean behind
the tropical wave across the eastern Dominican Republic. Gentle 
to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail over the remaining 
waters.

For the forecast, a strong tropical wave along 70W along with the
Bermuda High north of the region will enhance the trades over the
central Caribbean tonight through Sat. Peak winds should reach 
gale force just north of Colombia and Venezuela tonight through 
Sat morning. Additionally, another strong tropical wave - noted as
Invest AL92 - should start impacting the Leeward Islands 
beginning tomorrow evening. Winds strong to near gale force along 
with scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected from 
tomorrow night through Sat night for the Leeward Islands. As 
Invest AL92 moves westward, the enhanced winds will shift toward 
through N central Caribbean and the Greater Antilles including the
Windward Passage from Sat night through Sun night. Afterwards the
tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward the W Caribbean. 
Note that if Invest AL92 forms into a tropical cyclone, the winds 
and waves expected may be higher than indicated here.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92
located over the central tropical Atlantic.

High pressure prevails over the waters N of 18N, anchored by a 
1024 mb high centered near 28N46W, extending westward to SE 
Florida, and northeastward to a 1027 mb high near 35N27W. Mainly 
gentle winds prevail over the waters N of 24N and west of 30W, 
with slight to moderate seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds are 
noted S of 24N and W of 30W, with moderate seas. Invest AL92 is 
currently passing due south of the 1024 mb high center, and is
producing a broad swath of fresh to strong winds S of 20N between 
37W and 50W. Offshore Africa, fresh to locally strong NE winds 
extend from the Canary Islands to 20N then become moderate to 
locally fresh across the Cabo Verde Islands to 30W. Moderate to 
locally rough seas prevail across this area. Upper level troughing
supports widely scattered moderate convection N of 25N between 60W
and 80W. Dry and stable Saharan Air continues to dominate much of
the basin S of 24N to 14N, between Africa and the NE Caribbean.

For the forecast west of 55W, ridging along 27N with the Bermuda 
High combined with two tropical waves passing through the 
Caribbean will cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N 
from tonight through Sun night. Elsewhere winds are expected to 
remain light to moderate for the next few days. Looking ahead, a 
weak cold front will slowly push across our northern border east 
of 70W Sun, causing a wind shift to northeast but with little 
change in wind speeds on Sun and Mon north of 28N. 

$$
Adams