665 
AXNT20 KNHC 021505
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Apr 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1455 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 04N19W. 
The ITCZ extends from 04N19W to 02S45W. A few showers are seen
near the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Converging low-level winds in the south-central Gulf result in a
line of showers from near 26N90W to the Yucatan Channel. At the
surface, a broad subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic
extends into the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to locally fresh
SE winds and moderate seas, except for lighter winds in the Bay of
Campeche.

For the forecast, a broad western Atlantic surface ridge extends 
westward across the northern Gulf states and will dominate the 
Gulf region through Sat, then weaken through Sun. This pattern
will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds with occasional 
strong winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula, in the northwestern 
Gulf and Florida Straits. On Sun, a cold front will enter the 
northwestern Gulf and move southeastward through early next week, 
bringing strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas behind it.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras is
supporting numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially
west of 83W. Converging low-level winds result in scattered
showers in the SW Caribbean, especially off Costa Rica and western
Panama. High pressure north of the area forces moderate to fresh
easterly trade winds and seas of 4-8 ft across much of the 
central and western Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a broad western Atlantic ridge continues along about
34N and into the SE U.S. this morning, and will change little
through Sun morning. The pressure gradient between this surface 
ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds and
rough seas offshore Colombia through Sat night. This pattern will
also support fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough 
seas in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of 
Hispaniola through Fri night before winds and seas diminish there 
over the weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep layer trough, along with a surface trough, centered
northeast of the Leeward Islands, combine to generate scattered 
moderate convection from 20N to 27N and between 50W and 62W. A 
surface trough along Florida's east coast is triggering a few 
showers near the northwest Bahamas and southeastern Florida. An
expansive 1035 mb high in the north Atlantic is supporting fresh 
to strong NE to E winds and rough seas north of 20N between 45W 
and the Bahamas, except gentle to moderate SE winds with 4 to 7 ft
seas off northeastern Florida. 

Moderate or weaker winds and rough seas are evident south of 20N 
and west of 40W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to 
rough seas are noted north of 24N and east of 45W. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. Lastly, 
a plume of Saharan dust covers much of the eastern Atlantic, 
reducing the visibility for vessels in the area.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure extends from 
the central Atlantic west-southwestward and into the SE U.S. this 
morning, and will shift gradually SW and weaken modestly through 
Sun morning. This pattern will sustain fresh to strong NE to E 
winds and rough seas mainly south of 29N, including the central 
and southeast Bahamas, through this weekend. By Sun, the high will
have weakened and shifted to just NE of Bermuda, leading to 
gradually diminishing winds and seas Sun afternoon through Mon. A 
cold front is expected to exit the southeastern U.S. on Mon and 
move slowly southeastward, with increasing winds and and building 
seas developing behind it, across northeastern Florida waters. 

$$
Delgado