000
AXNT20 KNHC 172259
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Oct 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends from near Fort
Myers, Florida, to the central Bay of Campeche. Near storm-force
winds are present offshore Veracruz, Mexico, where seas are up to
20 ft. A broader area of gale force winds and very rough seas are
present behind the front offshore Mexico from Tampico to the
central Bay of Campeche. These gales will continue into Mon
morning, before the cold front clears the basin and winds begin to
diminish. Frequent gusts in excess of gale force are occurring
within 60 nm of the NE Gulf coast, with other areas behind the
front having widespread strong to near gale-force north winds,
along with rough seas. Peak seas may exceed 25 ft in the Bay of
Campeche late tonight and Sun, with rough seas prevailing across
portions of the basin through Tue. 

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N77W to the
central Florida coast. The front will reach from 31N72W to the 
Straits of Florida by early Sun morning, and from near 31N70W to 
western Cuba by early Mon morning, then stall and dissipate 
through mid week. Frequent gusts to gale force will follow the 
front later tonight over the waters north of 29N and west of 75W,
and continue through Sun. Very rough seas will be present where
these higher winds are present.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at 
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further 
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 09N27W. The ITCZ then 
extends from 09N27W to 11N39W. Scattered moderate convection is 
occurring from 04N to 11N and E of 24W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

See Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning in effect for portions of the area.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present in the SE basin
and the eastern Bay of Campeche, along and ahead of a cold front
that extends from near Fort Myers, Florida, to the central Bay of
Campeche. Away from convection and ahead of the front, moderate or
weaker east winds and slight seas prevail. 

For the forecast, the cold front will slow down as it reaches 
from the Florida Straits to Merida, Mexico by early Sun, then 
drift to the southeast of the Gulf through Tue as it weakens. 
Storm force winds off Veracruz will diminish to strong gale this 
evening, then persist over the SW Gulf through Sun night. Gales 
will diminish in the west-central Gulf by early Sun, and frequent 
gusts to gale force elsewhere behind the front should diminish by 
this evening. Strong NE winds and rough seas will persist 
elsewhere north of the front into early next week. Looking ahead, 
strong high pressure will build over the lower Mississippi Valley 
behind the front, promoting fresh NE to E winds mainly over the 
eastern half of the Gulf into mid-week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Deep-layer moisture and upper level divergence is inducing
numerous moderate convection across the western basin, W of 78W.
To the east, mainly fresh trades dominate, with locally strong
winds offshore Colombia and western Venezuela. Moderate seas 
dominate the basin. 

For the forecast, as a cold front moves across the Western 
Atlantic and the Gulf of America, the pressure gradient has 
relaxed across the basin, supporting moderate to fresh winds 
offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. An area
of showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface trough 
will continue to affect the NW Caribbean tonight. Moisture 
associated with this feature will merge with the cold front moving
across the Gulf of America later this weekend. The front will 
likely reach western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel by Tue then 
dissipate. Large seas associated with the front will impact the 
Yucatan Channel with hazardous conditions possible there. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning for waters offshore NE Florida. 

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is ongoing across
the NW Bahamas and between the Bahamas and South Florida, ahead 
of the cold front moving eastward and off the coast. More 
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection extends from 19N 
to 26N between 45W and 52W, in association with a deep-layer 
trough that is noted N of a weak stationary front that extends 
from 31N49W to 28N62W. Further to the southeast, a broad area of 
numerous moderate convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 38W 
and 53W, in association with another deep-layer trough. 

With the cold front extending from 31N72W to near Fort Pierce,
Florida, strong to near gale-force N winds are present N of the
boundary, with building rough seas. A trough axis extends from 20N
to 30N along 38W, with fresh E winds and rough seas N of 25N
between 35W and 45W in association with it. Otherwise, mainly
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas dominate the basin. 

For the forecast west of 55W, weak frontal troughs east of 70W 
will continue to dissipate this evening, ahead of a strong cold 
front which extends from 31N77W to near Fort Pierce, Florida. The 
front will reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida by early 
Sun morning, and from near 31N70W to western Cuba by early Mon 
morning, then stall and dissipate into mid week. Strong to near-
gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the 
front affecting mainly the waters west of 65W through Tue, 
although seas will linger through much of the week. Frequent gusts
to gale force are forecast behind the front north of 29N and west
of 74W tonight through Sun.

$$
Konarik