000
AXNT20 KNHC 150614
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Oct 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed near 46W, from 11N to 18N, moving 
westward near 10 kt. No significant convection is noted near the 
wave.

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles near 59W, from 10N to
19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is from 10N to 13N between 54W and 58W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and 
extends SW to 07N25W to 05N34W where it transitions to the ITCZ 
which continues to 06N46W to 05N54W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 04N to 10N between 26W and 36W. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 03N to 11N between 12W and
25W.  

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A high pressure ridge extends from a 1018 mb high center that is 
over central Alabama southward to about 22N. Recent scatterometer
data along with buoy observations reveal moderate to locally 
fresh east winds east of 90W, and moderate east to southeast 
winds west of 90W. Over the eastern Bay of Campeche, a surface
trough is generating scattered showers and fresh to locally near
gale force SE to E winds. Seas basin-wide are slight to moderate.
Locally higher seas are likely with the convection associated with
the trough offshore Yucatan. Otherwise, the remnants of a surface
trough are supporting scattered showers in the Straits of Florida
and the Yucatan Channel. 

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region through 
Fri producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight to
moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest 
Gulf late Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay
of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to 
rough seas will follow the front, with gales possible over the 
west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by 
Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the 
strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the 
SW Gulf trough Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low over the Yucatan and NW Caribbean are
supporting isolated showers across the western half of the basin,
except for scattered heavy showers and tstms lying behind a
surface trough that extends from 12N81W to 20N81W. Recent
scatterometer data show fresh to strong E to SE winds in the
vicinity of this convective activity where seas to 8 ft are
likely. Otherwise, surface ridging N of the region, is supporting
moderate to fresh easterlies in the central Caribbean and moderate
or weaker trades elsewhere. Seas are 3-4 ft over the NW and E
basin, and 5 to 6 ft over the central and portions of the SW
Caribbean. 

For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the 
Colombian low will support moderate to fresh trade winds offshore 
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through the upcoming 
weekend, with rough seas offshore Colombia. Moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Moisture
associated with an uper-level trough over the central Caribbean 
will reach the NW Caribbean on Thu, keeping the chances of showers
and thunderstorms across the basin. Gusty winds and rough seas 
will be associated with this convective activity.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface high pressure over the SE CONUS and NE of Bermuda support
mainly light to gentle winds, and slight to moderate seas over 
the west and central subtropical Atlantic waters. Locally fresh
easterly winds are ongoing in the Great Bahama Bank. Otherwise, 
the subtropical eastern Atlantic is under the influence of the 
Azores High, which is generally supporting moderate to fresh 
northeast winds and moderate seas to 6 ft between the coast of NW
Africa and 22W, including the waters adjacent to the Canary 
Islands. A 1013 mb low is located near 21N38W, which is generating
scattered showers from 20N to 27N between 28W and 39W. Moderate to
fresh winds are in the northern semicircle of the low to
approximately 27N along with rough seas to 9 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure E of the Bahamas is
forecast to dissipate later today. A cold front will reach the NE
waters on Fri with little change in winds and seas. A stronger 
cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late
Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from near Bermuda to 
South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and 
rough seas will follow the front. 

$$
Ramos