000
AXNT20 KNHC 212120
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Oct 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2120 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of The 
Gambia near 13N17W and continues to 08N30W. The ITCZ extends from
08N30W to near 08N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
05N to 10N between 15W and 30W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A trough is in the W Gulf from near Corpus Cristi to the Bay of
Campeche. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within
60 nm of the trough south of 22N. High pressure dominates the
remainder of the Gulf waters. Strong to near- gale winds are west
of the trough and south of 21N, where rough seas prevail.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern of the United 
States has a ridge extending into the Gulf region. This system 
supports moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds, with the 
exception of strong to near-gale force NW winds over the SW Gulf. 
The latter winds will persist through tonight. A tightening 
pressure gradient between the above mentioned ridge and a low 
pressure forecast to develop near the Bahamas will bring fresh to 
strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas over the eastern Gulf 
Fri night into Sat. These marine conditions will spread westward 
to the central Gulf Sat night through Sun night. Seas are expected
to build to 12 or 13 ft with these winds over the SE Gulf on Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient is supporting moderate or weaker winds,
and slight to moderate seas, across the Caribbean waters. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will 
promote gentle to moderate winds through Fri. The pressure 
gradient between a developing low pressure near the Bahamas and 
the Atlantic ridge will bring moderate to fresh E to SE winds over
the eastern Caribbean beginning Fri night. At the same time, 
strong high pressure over the eastern seaboard and the same low 
pressure will produce moderate to fresh northerly winds over the 
western part of the basin, including the Yucatan Channel. Mainly 
light to gentle winds are expected over the central Caribbean. 
These marine conditions will persist through the upcoming weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to the central 
Bahamas and to east-central Cuba. Moderate to fresh winds, and
moderate to rough seas, prevail west of the front. To the east, a
1011 mb low is centered near 29N57W, with a surface trough
extending NW to SE through the low. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted east of the trough from 23N to
30N between 42W and 55W. Fresh to strong winds, and moderate to
rough seas, are east of the trough from 23N to 31N between 50W and
55W. Another trough extends from 31N23W to 22N23W. No significant
convection is in the vicinity of the trough. Moderate winds, and
moderate seas are N of 24N on either side of the trough between
14W and 32W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail
elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and
NE swell persist west of a stationary front that extends from 
near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to east-central Cuba. 
Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by this evening 
while seas will slowly subside across the waters W of 65W and NE 
of the Bahamas through Fri. A tightening pressure gradient will 
develop beginning late Fri as high pressure builds southward over 
the western Atlantic and low pressure develops near the Bahamas 
along a remnant frontal trough. This setup is expected to induce 
widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough 
seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force over the waters 
roughly NW of a line from near 31N60W to the northern Bahamas on 
Sun. Mariners should monitor the latest marine forecasts, and have
avoidance plans in place. 

$$
AL