000
AXNT20 KNHC 131018
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Jul 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection prevails S of 11N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 10N41W. The ITCZ 
extends from 10N41W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Scattered
showers are noted along the monsoon trough and E of 33W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Divergence aloft supports scattered showers over the north-
central and NE Gulf waters. A 1021 mb high pressure centered over
the eastern Gulf near 27N87W sustains fresh easterly winds south 
of 24N and between 87W and 95W. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. 
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, a stationary front will reside just N of the area
through midweek, enhancing thunderstorms across the northern
Gulf waters. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning,
and locally higher seas near the stronger thunderstorms. Fresh to
strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula 
each night. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate, supporting 
gentle to moderate SE winds. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean forces
strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds across the central
Caribbean. Seas of 8-10 ft are occurring in the central 
Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE-E winds and seas of 5-8 ft are noted
in the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to 
locally fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas are evident in the 
eastern Caribbean and the lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the basin and lower pressures over northern South America will continue
to support strong to near-gale force trade winds across the central
Caribbean into mid-week. East winds will pulse strong each 
evening in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An extensive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic,
supporting fresh easterly trade winds south of the SE Bahamas and
between 70W and 80W. Moderate easterly winds and moderate seas 
are occurring south of 22N and west of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or
lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain
dominant through the forecast period, supporting moderate to fresh
trades south of 23N, with gentle winds to the north. Pulsing 
strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in 
the Windward Passage.

$$
ERA