000
AXNT20 KNHC 120929
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Sep 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0925 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 38W, south of 25N, moving 
westward at 15 to 20 kt. The portions of the wave N of 18N is 
shifting northwestward, forced by middle level southeasterly flow 
behind it. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N to 25N near 
this portion of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is also 
about the southern portion of the wave, from 07N to 12N between 
34W and 44W. 

The tropical wave previously analyzed around 86W has moved into
the eastern Pacific, please read the Tropical Weather Discussion
(TWDEP) for more details. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Senegal near 14N17W, and continues to 10N22W to 14N33W to 10N43W.
The ITCZ extends from 10N45W to the coast of Venezuela near 
10N61W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted
from 08N to 12N between 46W and 62W.
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure over northern Florida and lower pressures over
Mexico support moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and
moderate seas west of 94W and north of 23N. Moderate easterly
winds and seas of 2-4 ft are occurring in the Bay of Campeche.
ELsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. A few
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the eastern
Gulf waters.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail over the NE Gulf waters 
during the weekend. Winds will pulse to fresh speeds each night 
off the W Yucatan peninsula due to a diurnal trough moving toward 
the SW Gulf. By Tue night, a building ridge over the eastern 
United States and a frontal trough will combine to increase winds 
to fresh to locally strong speeds and build seas over the Gulf 
waters N of 23N into late next week. Conditions will improve late
next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak high pressure is centered N of the basin, between the 
Bahamas and Bermuda. The pressure gradient between the associated 
ridge and the Colombian low supports fresh to near gale-force 
easterly trade winds and rough seas over much of the central 
Caribbean S of 18N. A buoy near 14N76W is showing seas to 10 ft.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in
the eastern Caribbean, while moderate winds and seas are prevalent
elsewhere.

An upper-level trough over the NW Caribbean is producing scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Fair weather prevails across 
the area E of 78W.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a subtropical
ridge north of the islands and lower pressures associated with 
the Colombian Low will continue to support strong to locally 
near-gale easterly trade winds and rough to locally very rough 
seas over the central Caribbean for the next several days. Gusts 
to gale force may occur tonight off Colombia. Meanwhile, moderate 
to fresh easterly breezes are expected over the next few days in 
the eastern Caribbean. Winds will pulse to strong speeds in the 
Gulf of Honduras this evening through Mon morning. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough in the SW N Atlantic is producing scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over a good portion of the
basin, especially between Bermuda and the Bahamas. At the surface,
a weak high pressure dominates forcing moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas west of 55W. 

A broad high pressure centered off Portugal supports moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds between the Lesser Antilles and 35W.
Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas are noted east of
35W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas
prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted between Bermuda and the Bahamas 
associated with an upper- level trough. At the surface, the 
subtropical ridge will dominate the SW N Atlantic waters over the 
next several days. Trades north of Hispaniola into the Windward 
Passage will be fresh to locally strong through early next week. 
Looking ahead, a building ridge over the eastern United States and
a frontal trough will combine to increase winds to fresh to 
locally strong speeds and build seas to rough north of the Bahamas
and W of 70W starting Tue and continuing into Thu. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail.

$$
Delgado