000
AXNT20 KNHC 221047
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Aug 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W south 
of 19N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is seen from 06N to 11N between 23W and
27W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 46W south of 
20N  moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is
noted near the wave axis.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 58W 
south of 20N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No 
significant convection is noted near the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean along 80W south of 
20N, It is moving westward near 15 kt. Convection associated with
this wave is confined to the eastern Pacific waters just south of
Panama, which is also where the eastern segment of the East
Pacific monsoon trough is present.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 12N22W, and
westward from there to 12N35W and to 12N46W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ to near 09N55W. Outside of convection associated with
the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is seen within
about 120 nm south of the trough between 39W and 44W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Relatively weak high pressure continues to dominate the basin
as a weak 1018 mb high center is analyzed near 25N93W. This 
pattern is supporting mainly light to gentle winds and seas 
of 2 to 3 ft throughout.

A trough extends from north-central Florida south-southwestward to 
just south of Tampa and into the eastern Gulf near 25N84W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the NE Gulf section 
while isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the north-
central and west-central sections of the Gulf. A northeast to 
southwest oriented mid-level trough will help trigger off 
additional shower and thunderstorm over the NE Gulf today and 
tonight.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure centered over the 
central Gulf will prevail into the middle portion of next week.
Its related generally weak pressure gradient will maintain gentle 
to moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas. A surface 
trough will generate fresh to locally strong winds north and west 
of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings. These winds will 
spread westward away from the peninsula at night as the trough 
migrates into the SW Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the 
western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South 
America is sustaining fresh to strong trades primarily over the 
south-central Caribbean. Seas in the range of 8 to 10 ft are with 
these trades as noted in overnight satellite altimeter data passes. 
Overnight satellite scatterometer data passes indicate moderate to 
fresh trades elsewhere. Seas are of moderate state with these 
trades. Light to gentle trades are over the northwest part of the 
basin. Seas there are 2 to 3 ft.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the eastern
Caribbean from 11N to 15N east of 69W to the vicinity of the
Windward Islands. Similar activity is over the far western part 
of the sea from 13N to 16N west of 82W to just inland Honduras
and Nicaragua. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are south of 
13N between 80W and the coasts of Costa Rica and northern Panama.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient in place will continue
to support fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas 
primarily over the south-central Caribbean well into next week. 
Elsewhere across the basin, expect moderate to fresh trades along 
with moderate seas through the period. The exception will be in 
the northwest portion of the basin, where light to gentle trades 
will change little through the period. A tropical wave currently 
over the tropical Atlantic is expected to move across the eastern 
Caribbean Tue through early Wed, and across the eastern part of 
the central Caribbean during the rest of Wed. Another tropical 
wave may approach the Lesser Antilles and far eastern Caribbean 
late on Wed. These waves will enhance the trade wind flow across 
those waters. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak 1016 mb low is near 29N56W, with a trough extending
southwestward to near 28N61W. Another trough extends from
the low northeastward to north of the area at 31N49W. Other
troughs are analyzed from near 27N55W to 25N56W, and from 
near 27N41W to 22N47W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain
active near these features. Otherwise, high pressure is the main 
feature across the basin controlling the general wind regime 
throughout. A weak 1019 mb high center is located at 30N68W. A 
rather weak pressure gradient is allowing for light to gentle 
winds over most of the waters north of about 23N while moderate to
fresh trades are south of 23N. Seas west of 45W and also north of
26N west of 24W are 3 to 5 ft per overnight satellite altimeter 
data passes and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere, with the exception of higher 
seas of 6 to 8 ft off the coasts of Mauritania and Senegal, where 
mostly fresh northeast winds are occurring.

For the forecast west of 55W, the weak pressure gradient will 
support light to gentle winds over most of the waters north of 
about 23N through the period. Moderate to fresh trades are 
expected south of about 23N, with winds pulsing to strong speeds 
off northern Hispaniola at night well into next week. Meanwhile, 
the northern portion of a tropical wave is expected to move across
the waters S of about 23N and E of the Bahamas next week 
freshening the trades. Yet, the northern portion of another 
tropical wave may move across the SE portion of the area Wed and 
Wed night increasing the trades over those waters. 

$$
Aguirre