000
AXNT20 KNHC 032302
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Nov 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: satellite imagery this evening
suggests that an area of low pressure is beginning to develop in
the vicinity of 27N67W, along an old frontal boundary that 
extends from 25.5N60W to 27N66W and through the central Bahamas. 
A very tight pressure gradient is developing between the low 
pressure and 1030 mb high pressure to its north near 38N67W. As
the low develops tonight through Wed, the pressure gradient is 
expected to yield near-gale to gale-force NE to E winds beginning
Wed afternoon, roughly over the waters from 29N to 31N between 
63W and 69W. Seas are expected to build to 10-16 ft (3-5 m) with 
these winds through Thu as the low pressure drifts east- 
northeastward. The low pressure could acquire some subtropical 
characteristics late this week as it continues to shift slowly
E-NE across the sub-tropical Atlantic. Gale-force winds may
continue across northern portions of this expected broad low
pressure into late Sat.
 
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html

Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing 
over the northwestern Caribbean will interact with enhanced low-
level moisture associated with broad cyclonic flow over the
western Caribbean during the next several days. This will favor 
heavy precipitation developing across Central America, northern 
South America, as well as Jamaica tonight through Friday. The 
heaviest precipitation is expected across southern and western 
portions of Costa Rica, Panama, and Nicaragua, with the bulk of 
precipitation occurring today through Thursday. Heavy rainfall 
will lead to possible life-threatening flash flooding and 
landslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the 
International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more 
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic from coast of Sierra
Leone near 09.5N13.5W, and continues southwestward to 06N19W to
06N22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 07N29N
to 11N59W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
occurring E of 30W between 04N and 08N, and along and within 200 
nm N of the ITCZ between 34W and 59W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The interaction between strong high pressure over the eastern 
United States and a trough over the northeastern Gulf is 
maintaining fresh E to SE winds and seas of 4-6 ft over the NE 
Gulf from offshore Tampa Bay to near Mobile Bay. Gentle to 
moderate south to southeast winds and slight seas are elsewhere. 
Scattered moderate convection is ongoing across the coastal 
waters of west-central and southwest Florida. Scattered showers 
and thunderstorms are also moving into the SE Texas and SW 
Louisiana coastal waters, just ahead of a cold front still inland 
there and an upper-level trough and moving across the central US.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds over the NE 
Gulf will shift north of the area tonight. A cold front will 
enter the NW Gulf tonight through Wed, then weaken and dissipate 
Wed night. Moderate northwest to north winds are expected west of 
the front. Another cold front is expected to move across the Gulf 
waters Fri through Sun night. Fresh to strong N winds will 
develop west of the front and west of 93W Sat and Sun, with 
moderate north to northeast winds elsewhere behind the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Deep-layer troughing across the northwestern Caribbean supports 
scattered moderate to strong convection from 12N to 18N between 
74W and 84W. Scattered convection earlier this afternoon N of 20N
and across large portions of Cuba has diminished in intensity this
evening. In the SW Caribbean, broad cyclonic winds prevail W of
76W and extend to near 20N. Elsewhere, the modest pressure 
gradient across the central and eastern basin supports only moderate
to fresh trades and 4-6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate or weaker 
winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail elsewhere across NW portions. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin is 
supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds, along with 
moderate seas, over the central and eastern Caribbean. Light to 
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are over the western 
Caribbean. The pressure gradient will further loosen across the 
area by midweek as low pressure develops across the Atlantic S of
Bermuda. This will diminish the moderate trades across the 
central and eastern Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the western Atlantic.

A frontal boundary is analyzed from a 1014 mb low near 31.5N35W 
to 27.5N40W to 25.5N60W, where it then transitions to a shear 
line that extends westward through the central Bahamas and to the 
Florida Keys. Scattered moderate convection is occurring N of 22N
between 50W and 68W. Winds quickly increase from gentle to 
moderate trades S of the front and shear line to fresh to strong 
NE to E winds north of these features, due to strong high pressure
to the north. Seas of 8-11 ft are seen N of the front and shear 
line between 58W and 77W, with 5-8 ft seas in NE swell south of 
these features. Further to the east and north of the front, seas
are 7 to 10 ft east of 50W. The remainder of the Atlantic is 
seeing gentle to moderate or weaker trade winds and seas of 4-7 
ft in N to NE swell. 

For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure is centered 
north of Bermuda and extends a ridge W to E along 38N. Broad low 
pressure is expected to develop along the frontal boundary 
southwest of Bermuda, roughly from 27N to 28N, tonight through 
Wed, and track slowly east-northeastward during the rest of the 
week and into the weekend. A broad zone of strong to gale- force 
winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking near 16 ft, will 
develop north of the low pressure and expand eastward Wed through 
Sat, impacting the waters mainly north of about 27N. The gale- 
force winds will likely be north of 29N from Wed afternoon through
Sat night. A weakening cold front will move across the waters 
between Florida and 75W Fri and Fri night, then dissipate Sat and 
Sat night. 

$$
Stripling