205 
AXNT20 KNHC 200946
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Aug 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0935 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderated convection is
present from 06N to 13N and between 25W and 32W. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W, south of 18N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is observed from 07N to 15N and between 32W and 47W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 61W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms
are evident from 11N to 15N and between 58W and 64W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted
over the Caribbean waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 16N17W and continues southwestward to 11N30W and to 
10N51W. The ITCZ extends from 10N51W to 10N60W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 04N to 
17N and east of 23W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure over the Gulf waters support moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the eastern and central
Bay of Campeche. Moderate southerly winds and seas of 1-3 ft are
found in the western Gulf waters north of 22N and west of 94W. In
the remainder of the basin, light to gentle winds and slight seas
are prevalent. A few showers are seen in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure centered over the
central Gulf will prevail over the basin through the forecast
period. A weak pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to
moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas across much
of the basin. A diurnally induced surface trough will generate
fresh to locally strong winds north and west of the Yucatan
Peninsula in the early evenings. These winds will spread westward
away from the peninsula at night as the trough migrates into the 
SW Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the
islands and lower pressures in Colombia supports fresh to strong
easterly trade winds and rough seas in the south-central
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are
found in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the SW
Caribbean, especially off Costa Rica and Panama.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean will force
fresh to locally near gale-force trades, along with rough seas,
across the south-central Caribbean through much of the forecast
period. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail
over the north-central and eastern Caribbean through the weekend
and into early next week, perhaps increase in coverage over the
tropical Atlantic and eastern Caribbean starting Sun night as a
tropical wave moves across those waters. Elsewhere, moderate or
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N48W and
continues westward to a 1017 mb low near 30N58W. A trough extends
from the low to 26N69W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
present north of 27N and between 47W and 60W. A few showers are
evident west of 60W and north of 24N. The tropical Atlantic is
dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that supports moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas south of a line from
31N25W to the eastern Bahamas. Light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front
will weaken to a trough today. Elsewhere, a weak pressure 
gradient will support mostly light to gentle winds over most of 
the waters north of 23N going into the upcoming weekend and into 
early next week. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh trades are 
expected south of about 23N, especially off northern Hispaniola 
through the period. 

$$
Delgado