000
AXNT20 KNHC 211020
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Oct 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of The
Gambia near 13N17W and continues west-southwestward to 08N31W. 
The ITCZ extends from 08N31W to 09N51W. Scattered showers are
noted in the vicinity of the Monsoon Trough and E of 21W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough in the Bay of Campeche continues to produce
scattered showers, while drier conditions are prevalent 
elsewhere. Strong high pressure north of the area is forcing 
strong NW winds and rough seas in the SW Gulf, while moderate to 
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the rest 
of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern U.S. will 
support fresh to NE winds across the basin through the week, 
except for strong NW to N winds over the SW Gulf through Wed. The 
high, combined with a low pressure that is expected to develop 
near the Bahamas, will support strong to near-gale NE winds and 
rough seas over the eastern Gulf Sat. These conditions will spread
westward to the central Gulf Sat night through Sun night. Seas 
are expected to peak to 12 ft with these winds. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted off Colombia. High 
pressure north of the area and a nearby stationary frontal 
boundary support moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 2-4 ft in 
the waters north of 20N. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds 
and seas of 3-5 ft are found from 11.5N to 16N and east of 80W. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds N of 20N W of 85W will diminish
to moderate speeds today as high pressure north of the basin 
weakens. Moderate to fresh SE winds will prevail across the 
eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period, while 
gentle to moderate NE winds will continue W of 79W. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from Bermuda to the central Bahamas 
and central Cuba. Scattered showers are occurring near this 
boundary. Latest scatterometer satellite pass showed moderate to 
fresh northerly winds behind the front. Seas in these waters are 
8-12 ft. Farther east, a weak low pressure near 29N59W along an 
NW-SE oriented surface trough and a nearby broad upper-level 
trough combine to support scattered showers and thunderstorms 
north of 20N and between 42W and 60W. Moderate to fresh southerly
winds and moderate seas are found east of the surface trough.

Meanwhile, well east of the Lesser Antilles, a surface trough is
producing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 13N to 18N and
between 43W and 52W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and 
moderate seas are present south of 10N and west of 50W. Finally, 
in the far NE Atlantic, a surface trough along 23W from 20N-30N
supports scattered showers north of 24N and east of 25W. Moderate
to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found north of 25N 
and east of 35W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under a
strong high pressure system positioned north of the Azores, 
sustaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and
large NE swell persist west of a stationary front that extends 
from 31N66W to the southeastern Bahamas and to central Cuba. Winds
will diminish into Wed as the frontal boundary weakens. Lingering
swell will slowly subside through Fri. A tightening pressure 
gradient will develop beginning late Fri as high pressure builds 
southward over the western Atlantic and low pressure develops 
near, or NE of the Bahamas along a remnant frontal trough. This 
setup is expected to induce widespread near to gale-force NE winds
over the waters roughly NW of a line from near 31N61W to the 
northern Bahamas. Seas with these winds are expected to quickly 
build to rough to very rough. Mariners should monitor the latest 
marine forecasts, and have avoidance plans in place. 

$$
ERA