000
AXNT20 KNHC 152350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat May 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W, from 12N southward,
and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is noted ahead of the wave from 02N to 04N between 36W
and 38W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 57W, from 13N southward
into western Suriname, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen across 
Guyana and Suriname.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Saloum Delta area in
Senegal, then curves southwestward to 03N26W. An ITCZ continues 
from 03N26W to 01N32W, then westward from 00N36W to near the
Amazon River Delta, Brazil. Numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection is present near and south of the monsoon trough from  
02N to 07N and east of 24W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is seen up to 150 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge reaches southwestward from a 1018 mb high near 
the Florida Big Bend area to south of Tampico, Mexico. Light to 
gentle winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft are present the eastern half of
the Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are
noted off northern Yucatan Peninsula, and the coast of southern 
Texas and northeastern Mexico. Mainly gentle winds and seas of 2 
to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate into early next 
week. As low pressure deepens over Texas, the pressure gradient 
will tighten, causing moderate to fresh SE winds off the Texas 
and Mexico coast to expand across the entire western Gulf this 
weekend, then continue through early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tight gradient between a broad surface ridge near 24N and a 1008
mb low near the Colombia-Venezuela border is sustaining fresh to
strong NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas at the south-central
basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft are
evident at the northwestern and waters north of Costa Rica and
Panama. Moderate to fresh E winds with 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere
in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to near-gale trades across the central 
basin, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf 
of Honduras will persist into midweek next week. Moderate to 
fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the basin, 
pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night Sat through 
Tue. Rough seas produced by large NE swell will impact the 
Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles into Mon, before
gradually subsiding afterward.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough former stationary front stretches southwestward
from southwest of Bermuda across 31N70W to the central Bahamas.
Scattered moderate convection is flaring up east of this feature,
north of 27N between 63W and 69W. Scattered showers are present
near the trough itself, including the central Bahamas and Great
Bahama Bank. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. 

Moderate to fresh with locally strong S to SW winds and 6 to 8 ft
seas are found near the trough, north of 28N between 55W and 68W.
Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending southwestward from a
1034 mb Azores High across 31N40W to near the southeast Bahamas is
supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft north of 
26N between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. To the 
south, gentle SE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas exist from 20N to 
26N and west of 65W. For the Atlantic waters from 05N to 26N 
between 35W and the 65W/Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E
winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft seas dominate. Gentle to moderate NE 
to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail 
for the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds north of 
30N will lift north of the region this evening, allowing rough 
seas to diminish. Thereafter, moderate seas with moderate to 
fresh easterly winds will prevail through early next week. 

$$

Chan