000
AXNT20 KNHC 270459
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Sep 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo is centered near 19.6N 23.2W at 
27/0000 UTC, moving NNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt within 90 
nm across the NE semicircle. Peak seas are near 16 ft in the NE 
quadrant. Gonzalo remnants are a sheared system with scattered to 
locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection extending 
well NE of the center, from 19.5N to 24N between 16W and 23W. The 
remnant low of Gonzalo will continue to move N-NW and away from 
the Cabo Verde Islands during the next few days, while gradually 
weakening. S to SE swell generated by Gonzalo and the regional 
monsoonal winds are expected to continue to affect portions of the
Cabo Verde Islands overnight while gradually diminishing through 
Sunday morning. 

Please read the latest area forecasts for the Post-Tropical 
remnants of Gonzalo issued by MeteoFrance at
wwmis.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 66W, south of 18N, moving west 
at 10 to 15 kt. The wave has become significantly sheared by an
upper level low over the NE Caribbean. No significant convection 
is depicted over water at this time near this wave. 

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis along 82W-83W, S 
of 16N, extending across western Panama, moving west near 10 kt. 
Moderate convection associated with this wave is inland and along
the coasts of Central America from western Panama to central
Nicaragua. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits Africa along the coast of Mauritania near
17N16W and extends to the remnant low of Gonzalo near 19.5N23W
then southwestward to 09.5N33W to 09N38W. The ITCZ extends from 
09N40W to 12N55W to 11N60W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted within 180 nm SE of the monsoon trough between 20W and 36W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N 
to 12.5N between 48W and 61W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A dissipating frontal boundary extends across the basin from the
western tip of Cuba to the NE Mexican coast along 24.5N. Widely 
scattered clusters of moderate convection are within 75 nm S of 
this boundary. Isolated weak showers are elsewhere to the N across
northwest and north-central portions. The upper level trough
across the basin in recent days has weakened considerable and
drifted SE and now extends from central Florida southwestward
across SE portions and the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate 
convection is also along and ahead a surface trough across the 
western Yucatan Peninsula and moving into the immediate coastal 
waters. Surface observations indicate that a weak 1014 mb high 
center has shifted southward into the NE Gulf offshore of the 
Florida-Alabama border. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail
across the basin with a few small zones of moderate E winds 
occurring N of the front offshore of Louisiana and across the 
upper Mexican offshore waters. Seas are 3 ft in these areas and 
less than 3 ft elsewhere.


For the forecast, light to gentle winds, and slight to moderate 
seas, will prevail through the weekend. Winds and seas will 
gradually increase to gentle to moderate speeds Mon, and to 
moderate to fresh speeds Tue night through Thu night, as high
pressure shifts into the eastern Gulf and a frontal system moves
into the Central Plains. Slight seas basin-wide will build to 
moderate Wed night through Thu following the increase in winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weaker than normal pressure gradient across the western Atlantic
and Caribbean basin is translating to gentle to moderate trades 
over most of the basin. Moderate to locally fresh winds are
occurring across the waters S of 13.5N between NW Venezuela and NE
Colombia, and in the Gulf of Honduras, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. 
Moderate winds follow the tropical wave and extend into the
Windward Islands. Seas are 2 to 4 f there. Elsewhere light to
gentle winds prevail with seas 3 ft or less. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support gentle to
moderate trades across the Caribbean through Mon night. High
pressure will build E of the Bahamas on Tue, which will result in
trades reaching moderate to fresh speeds basin-wide. Seas will be
slight to moderate through the period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on Post-
Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo. 

Large N to NE swell generated by Low pressure off the East Coast
of the U.S. and associated frontal system continues to dominate 
the waters N of 24N and W of 70W, becoming NW swell N of 25N 
between 64W and 70W. This swell has peaked in the past 24 hours 
and is beginning to subside, with maximum seas now 10-11 ft
between 29N and 31N, except higher in the Gulfstream. This swell
will continue to gradually subside through Mon, while gradually
becoming more NW to N, and propagating to the waters near 60W by
late Mon.

Tropical Depression Fay is centered near 29.6N 43.9W at 27/0300, 
moving S at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. 
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak
seas to 10 ft are within 60 nm N of center, while seas of 6 to 10
ft are found across the area N of 28N between 40W and 47W.
Numerous moderate to strong convection has recently erupted within
120 nm across the SW semicircle.

A vigorous upper-level trough along the eastern seaboard of the
U.S. supports the deep low pressure off the NE Atlantic coast, 
and supports a cold front across the western Atlantic waters
extending through 31N68W through the central Bahamas and into 
western Cuba. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated 
strong convection is ongoing E of this front, from NE Cuba and NW 
Hispaniola through the Turks and Caicos, to the area between the 
front and 30N72W. Moderate to locally fresh SW to S winds 
generally prevail E of the front from 21N north-northeastward to 
beyond 31N and W of 62W. Seas are 4 to 9 ft in northerly swell 
described above, highest N of 27N. To the east, a surface trough 
supported by a mid-level low is inducing numerous moderate 
convection from 26N to 30N between 55W and 60W. Moderate to 
locally fresh S winds and seas 5 to 7 ft are present in the 
vicinity of this trough. To the SE, a belt of gentle to moderate 
trades prevails from 10N to 21N W of 34W to the Lesser Antilles, 
where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Farther E, moderate to fresh NE winds 
prevail N of the monsoon trough to 24N between 24W and 33W, where 
seas are 7 to 10 ft in NE swell from Gonzalo. Otherwise mainly 
gentle winds prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will 
will reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba tonight before
starting to weaken. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are expected along and ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh SW 
winds are expected E of the front through the remainder of the 
weekend before diminishing Mon. Large northerly swell behind the 
front will gradually subside through Mon. 

$$
Stripling