000
AXNT20 KNHC 281713
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Oct 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gales and Significant Swell N of Bahamas: A tight pressure 
gradient between a 1034 mb high pressure system over New England 
and a stationary front extending from S of Bermuda to a 1010 mb 
low in the W Bahamas supports fresh to near gale-force NE winds 
and rough to very rough seas N of the front and W of the low. A
recent scatterometer pass confirmed gale-force winds ongoing near
30N71W. Peak seas are near 14 ft N of the NW Bahamas. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring N of the front 
and S of the front between 65W and 72W. Strong NE to E winds and 
rough to very rough seas will persist N of 28N and W of 65W 
through Thu night as the low pressure moves southwestward and the 
front weakens. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these 
dangerous marine conditions and take the necessary precautions to 
avoid these affected areas. 

Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues to 08N23W. The ITCZ 
extends from 08N23W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is observed from 03N to 12N and between 29W and
59W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure over New England extends a ridge across the Gulf 
waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pres over 
the Bahamas is supporting moderate to locally strong NE winds E 
of 90W. Moderate to locally rough seas are over these waters. 
Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are found west of 90W.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a 1032 mb 
high pressure system over New England and a complex weather system
over the Cay Sal area of the Bahamas will continue to support 
fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas in the E Gulf into 
late this week. Winds and seas will gradually diminish into Sat as
the ridge slides eastward. Looking ahead, another robust high 
pressure system will reach New England late this weekend and early
next week allowing winds and seas to increase in the NE Gulf. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail
through the forecast period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough in the central Caribbean supports scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to affect the waters from
northern Colombia to E Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Generally dry 
conditions prevail elsewhere. A weak pressure gradient allows for 
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, a surface trough extends southward across 
central Cuba into the Caribbean along 80W. The trough will drift 
westward and weaken over the next couple of days. Ample tropical 
moisture and upper-level divergence support scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms over the central Caribbean. Otherwise, 
moderate to locally fresh trade winds in the E Caribbean will 
continue over the next few days, gradually extending westward 
through the week and into the upcoming weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
significant swell causing very rough seas north of the Bahamas.

E of 70W, the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical
ridge that supports moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas across
areas N of 20N. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas 
prevail S of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, a tight pressure gradient between a
1034 mb high pressure system over New England and a stationary 
front extending from SE of Bermuda to a 1010 mb low in the Cay Sal
area of the Bahamas supports strong to gale-force NE winds and 
rough to very rough seas north of the front. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are occurring east of the Bahamas. Strong 
NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas will persist N of 28N 
and W of 65W through Thu night as the low pressure moves 
southwestward and the front weakens. Looking ahead, weak low 
pressure will develop southwest of Bermuda by Fri, then lift 
northeastward and reinforce the frontal boundary over the waters 
between the central Bahamas and Bermuda. Expect fresh to strong 
NE-E winds and seas to 10 ft N of the front through early next 
week.

$$
Adams