000
AXNT20 KNHC 261630
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Dec 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1555 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
southern Liberia near 04N08W and continues westward to 04N09W. 
The ITCZ extends from 04N09W to 03N40W and to NE Brazil near
02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 06N
and between 15W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is found in the NW Gulf waters, resulting in a
few showers in the area. Multi-layer clouds are also found in the
central and eastern Gulf, while generally dry conditions are found
elsewhere. 

The pressure gradient between a strong ridge over New England and
lower pressures over southern Texas sustain fresh to locally 
strong southerly winds west of 93W and north of 23N. Seas in 
these waters are 3-6 ft. Moderate SE winds and moderate seas are 
prevalent in the eastern Gulf waters. In the rest of the basin, 
light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will maintain mostly 
moderate southeast winds and slight to moderate seas through early
Fri, then winds may increase some late Fri into Sat over the 
eastern Gulf as high pressure builds southward from the 
southeastern United States, and a weak cold front approaches 
eastern Texas. Relatively calm conditions are expected on Sun as 
the weak cold front moves across the Gulf, followed by weak high 
pressure that becomes established over the NW Gulf at that time. 
Fresh southerly winds are expected to become established in the 
western Gulf on Mon in response to a frontal system that 
approaches E Texas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture combine to
produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the NW
and SW Caribbean Sea, especially west of 77W. Generally dry 
conditions are noted in the rest of the Caribbean. 

A strong ridge over New England is forcing fresh to locally strong
easterly trade winds across the central Caribbean waters, as 
shown by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these 
waters are 5-8 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found 
off NW Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate 
seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure to the
north and low pressure to the south will allow for moderate to
fresh trades across the basin through this morning, with pulsing
fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia. Winds will then
diminish slightly and prevail trough early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and a few
showers are evident near this boundary. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicate that moderate to locally strong N-NE winds
are occurring north of the frontal boundary. Seas in these waters
are 6-9 ft. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic (west of 55W) is
under the influence of a strong ridge over New England, supporting
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

Farther east, a stationary front extends from a 1016 mb low
pressure system near 31N38W to a 1015 mb low pressure center near
25N44W and to 19N55W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted east of the frontal boundary to 33W and north
of 22N. Seas in the area described are 6-9 ft. The rest of the
tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1031 mb high pressure system
in the NE Atlantic. This ridge sustains fresh NE winds south of
20N and east of 30W, along with seas of 4-6 ft. A recent altimeter
satellite pass depicted rough seas, up to 10 ft, north of 26N and
between 47W and 53W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N66W 
southwestward to 28N71W. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds
are noted W of the front. The cold front will quickly reach from 
near 31N60W to 26N67W by tonight, and from near 28N55W to the 
southeastern waters by Fri evening, with its southern portion 
weakening through late Sat while the remainder of the front moves 
well to the E of 55W. Fresh to strong northerly winds and large N 
swell are expected to follow in behind the front on Fri mainly E 
of about 70W. On Mon, these winds will be affecting the northeast 
part of the area, however, rough seas are expected to cover a good
portion of the eastern half of the area. 

$$
Delgado