722 
AXNT20 KNHC 280333
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Jun 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0325 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge in the central Atlantic and lower pressures in
Colombia will support strong to gale-force NE-E winds and rough to
locally very rough seas in the south-central Caribbean tonight and
Sun morning. A recent partial scatterometer satellite pass 
captured winds up to 31 kt off NW Colombia. Winds will drop below 
gale on Sun, but fresh to strong winds and rough seas will persist
through at least the upcoming week.

Please refer to High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by
the National Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduced in the far eastern Atlantic
along 18W, south of 16N, based on satellite imagery, total precipitable
water and wave guidance data. The wave is moving westward at 
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to
11N and east of 25W. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W, south of 13N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found
from 02N to 08N and between 40W and 51W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 58W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. A few showers are noted within 120 nm
on both sides of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 08N26W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N26W to 06N42W and then from 05N45W and to 
03N51W. Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the
convection.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A few showers are noted in the western Bay of Campeche and off
western Florida, while generally dry conditions are present in the
rest of the Gulf. A 1020 mb high pressure system centered over the
eastern Gulf waters forces fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and
moderate seas south of 24N and between 88W and 94W. Moderate to
locally fresh SE winds and moderate seas are occurring in the NW
Gulf. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse off 
the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Thu night. Moderate to 
fresh SE to S winds are expected across the NW Gulf through Mon 
night. A weak cold front will sink southward into the NE Gulf Mon
night into Tue and gradually dissipate. Elsewhere, ridging will 
support only gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details regarding 
upcoming gale conditions for offshore Colombia.

Aside from the expected gale conditions, the pressure gradient 
between Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure in Colombia and 
adjacent areas is resulting in fresh to strong trade winds over much 
of the central Caribbean, and westward from there to the Gulf of 
Honduras. Rough to locally very rough seas are found in the
south-central Caribbean and moderate to locally rough seas in the
Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong northeast winds are in the 
Windward Passage, along with moderate seas. Moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High north of the basin
combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong 
tradewinds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period.
Winds will pulse to gale-force offshore of Colombia tonight 
before diminishing Sun. Elsewhere, fresh to strong trades are 
expected over the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage tonight. 
Moderate or lighter winds are forecast across the remainder of the
basin during the next several days. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level low centered southwest of Bermuda is producing a
few showers north of 25N and between 58W and 67W. The tropical
Atlantic is dominated by an extensive high pressure system
centered near the Azores. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds
and moderate seas are found south of 20N and between 40W and 52W.
In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally strong N-NE winds
and seas of 5-8 ft are noted within 120 nm of the coast of Africa,
north of 18N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, an expansive Bermuda-Azores High
will dominate the forecast area through Mon. While most of the 
basin will experience moderate or weaker winds, trades just north 
of Hispaniola will freshen afternoons and early evenings for the 
next several days. On Mon night, a weak cold front should push off
of the SE United States coast and extend from 31N73W to the 
central Florida peninsula by Tue morning. While the cold front is 
anticipated to dissipate by Wed, a broad low pressure area is 
expected to form in its wake. Gradual development of this system 
will be possible thereafter, while it moves slowly westward over 
our NW waters north of 29N.

$$
Delgado