000
AXNT20 KNHC 251006
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Apr 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W and extends SW 
to 03N18W to 00N24W. The ITCZ continues from 00N24W to south of 
the equator at 30W and to 02S40W. Numerous moderate to strong 
convection is noted from 02S to 06N between 00W and 15W, and from
08S to 02N between 22W and 49W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Surface ridging extends over much of the Gulf, supporting gentle 
to moderate E to SE winds W of 90W and over the northern Yucatan
Peninsula adjacent waters. Recent buoy data continue to show 2 to
4 ft seas prevail over the Gulf. Otherwise, dense fog is being
reported over the NW and central Gulf waters 

For the forecast, a ridge across the Gulf waters, combined with a
coastal trough near Mexico, will support moderate to fresh SE 
winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and 
gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the 
eastern part of the basin through the middle of next week. In 
addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off 
the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Wed night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient is supporting mainly gentle E to SE 
winds over the Caribbean, except for locally moderate winds over
the SE basin and in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 2 to 3 ft 
prevail over the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure situated N of the basin will 
continue to weaken over the next couple of days as the trough, 
currently located NE of Hispaniola and across the Windward Passage
lifts NE during the weekend before dissipating on Mon. This 
weather pattern will support a weaker than usual pressure gradient
across the Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly moderate 
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire 
basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where moderate winds will 
reach fresh speeds at night through Wed. Otherwise, winds are 
forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the east and 
central Caribbean Mon night through mid-week as the pressure 
gradient builds between a developing trough NE of the southern 
Bahamas and high pressure W of the Canary Islands extending a 
ridge SW to the NE Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Abundant moisture across the eastern Bahama Bank, Windward
Passage, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico adjacent waters along with a
short-wave trough aloft continue to fuel showers and tstms in
connection with a surface trough, remnants of a frontal 
boundary that extends from 23N66W and across the Windward Passage.
Fresh to locally strong winds in connection to the areas of 
convection associated with the trough are likely. The remaining
subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge
anchored by a pair of 1019 mb highs W of the Canary Islands.
Moderate to fresh SW to W winds and rough seas are ongoing over 
the NE offshores in connection with an approaching cold front.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are between the W coast of Africa
and the Cape Verde Islands with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to locally
fresh NE to E winds are in the deep tropics all the way to the
Lesser Antilles offshores. Seas are moderate.  

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough is forecast to 
lift NE over the weekend, likely developing a low SE Bahamas today
before dissipating on Mon. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds and 
rough seas over the NE offshore waters will prevail through this 
evening as a cold front clips the region late today into early 
Sun. A second cold front is forecast to enter the waters off NE 
Florida by Sun night, extend from 31N70W to South Florida by Mon 
night, and past Bermuda to 23N67W by Tue evening before 
dissipating Wed night. 

$$
Ramos