189 
AXNT20 KNHC 220355
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Oct 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0335 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 13N16W and continues southwestward to 08N26W. A
surface trough is analyzed from 14N23W to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends
from 08N30W to 08N53W. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms
are noted from 05N to 15N and east of 35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough extends from southern Texas to the SW Gulf and
the southern Yucatan peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are occurring within 120 nm on either side of this 
boundary. High pressure dominates the remainder of the basin 
allowing for generally dry conditions. Fresh to strong NW winds and 
seas of 5-7 ft are evident off Veracruz, south of 21N and west of 
95W. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and moderate seas are found in 
the eastern Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas are prevalent. 

For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between the
aforementioned high pressure and a low pressure forecast to 
develop near the Bahamas will bring fresh to strong NE winds and 
moderate to rough seas over the eastern Gulf Fri night into Sat. 
These marine conditions will spread westward to the central Gulf 
Sat night through Sun night. Seas are expected to build to 12 or 
13 ft with these winds over the eastern Gulf on Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen in the NW and SW
Caribbean. A weak pressure gradient sustains moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas across the basin. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will
promote gentle to moderate winds through Fri. The pressure
gradient between a developing low pressure near the Bahamas and
the Atlantic ridge will bring moderate to fresh E to SE winds
over the eastern Caribbean beginning Fri night. At the same
time, strong high pressure over the eastern seaboard and the
same low pressure will produce moderate to fresh northerly winds
over the western part of the basin, including the Yucatan
Channel. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected over the
central Caribbean. These marine conditions will persist through
the upcoming weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from near 31N69W to a 1011 mb low near
25N70W and then to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba. Another
surface trough is noted south of Bermuda. Plenty of tropical 
moisture and divergence aloft support scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms north of 22N and between 62W and 72W.
Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and rough seas are found
behind the westernmost trough, especially north of 25N. 

A similar weather pattern is present in the central Atlantic, where 
a surface trough extends southeastward from a 1012 mb low near 
31N58W. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are found north 
of 21N and between 41W and 55W. A moderate pressure gradient between 
this surface trough and a broad ridge over the NE Atlantic sustains 
fresh southerly winds and seas of 4-8 ft in the area described. The 
remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by the aforementioned broad 
ridge, supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. An 
exception is evident off NE South America where wind speeds reach 
fresh force.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and
NE swell persist west of a trough that extends from near Bermuda 
to the central Bahamas and to east-central Cuba. Winds will 
diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by this evening while seas 
will slowly subside across the waters W of 65W and NE of the 
Bahamas through Fri. A tightening pressure gradient will develop 
beginning late Fri as high pressure builds southward over the 
western Atlantic and low pressure deepens near the Bahamas along 
the trough. This setup is expected to induce widespread fresh to 
strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas, with winds 
likely reaching gale-force over the waters roughly NW of a line 
from near 31N60W to the northern Bahamas on Sun. Mariners should 
monitor the latest marine forecasts, and have avoidance plans in 
place. 

$$
Delgado