000
AXNT20 KNHC 291016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Mar 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1010 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 00N25W. The ITCZ
then continues from that point to the coast of Brazil at 03S39W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 240
nm either side of the boundaries.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front stretches from Cape Coral, Florida SW to 24N90W to 
Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to
rough seas prevail behind the front over the NE basin E of 89W. 
Moderate to fresh NE winds are ongoing in the E Bay of Campeche
with seas to 6 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker and seas
slight to moderate.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to bring fresh to 
strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas across the NE and then 
the SE Gulf through this evening as the front departs the area. 
As a broad ridge builds in the wake of the front, moderate to 
fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will be sustained over the E
Gulf through Thu night. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds is 
forecast for the western half of the Gulf with locally strong
east winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula due to a trough 
that will move every night to the Bay of Campeche. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure building in the wake
of the Gulf of America cold front and the Colombian low is 
supporting fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds off Colombia and 
fresh to strong NE winds in the Gulf of Venezuela. Winds of
similar speed are ongoing across the Windward Passage, the lee
side of Cuba and south of Hispaniola. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds prevail. 

For the forecast, the gradient of pressure between a ridge 
extending to the northern Caribbean and the low pressure over NW 
Colombia will continue to support strong to near gale-force NE to 
E winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through Thu night. Fresh 
to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, 
and south of Hispaniola will prevail through the end of the 
forecast period due to strong high pressure that will build in the
wake of a cold front moving through the SW N Atlantic waters 
through Wed. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A strong cold front extends from 31N65W SW to Boyton Beach,
Florida. Strong to near gale-force NE winds and rough to very
rough seas to 15 ft follows the front and is currently affecting
the offshore waters N of the Bahamas and west of 63W. Ahead of the
front, moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas prevail while
further east, a pre-frontal trough, is supporting scattered
showers. The remainder central and eastern subtropical Atlantic
waters are under the influence of the Azores ridge, which tightens
the pressure gradient and supports fresh to strong NE to E winds
and moderate to rough seas extending from the NW coast of Africa
to about 37W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
elsewhere.  

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will continue to 
move SE through early Tue morning, bringing strong to near gale- 
force N to NE winds and rough to very rough seas across the 
offshore waters. The front is forecast to stall from the central 
Atlantic to the SE offshore waters early Tue morning and gradually
weaken until dissipation by Wed night. Strong high pressure 
building in the wake of the front will continue to bring fresh to 
strong NE winds and rough seas to the offshores waters E of the 
Bahamas and across the Great Bahama Bank beyond Thu night. 
 
$$
Ramos