322 
AXNT20 KNHC 191810
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Jan 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING AND GULF OF MEXICO 
GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

A cold front passes through the Florida Big Bend, to the central
Gulf of Mexico, and to the SW corner of the Gulf close to 20N97W.
The front continues northwestward, inland in Mexico. Surface high
pressure covers the Gulf to the northwest of the cold front.
Gale-force northerly winds are in the Gulf of Mexico from 22N to 
28N from 95W westward. SW gale-force winds are to the east of 
Florida from 29N northward from 77W westward. Strong to near gale-
force northerly winds are elsewhere from 93W westward. Fresh to 
strong NW winds are from 25N northward from the cold front 
northwestward. Moderate to fresh SW winds are from 24N to the cold
front between Florida and the cold front. Rough seas are from 90W
westward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of 
Mexico.

Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is 
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
close to 06N11W, and it curves to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from
04N18W, to 02N23W, to the Equator along 30W. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate/isolated strong is from 05N
southward between 36W and the coast of NE South America. The
precipitation is in the area in which winds of faster speeds are
approaching winds of a comparatively slower speed.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information
about the Gale-Force Wind Warning that was issued for the western
sections of the Gulf of Mexico. All the information about the Gulf
of Mexico is in the SPECIAL FEATURES section.

A cold front extends from near Apalachicola, Florida 
southwestward to 25N90W and to inland Mexico just N of Veracruz. 
Strong to near gale force northerly winds will prevail N of the 
front through tonight as it moves SE and gradually stalls across 
the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida Mon through Mon night. 
A brief period of northerly gales is expected offshore of Tampico 
and Veracruz this afternoon. Low pressure is expected to form over
the NW Gulf on Mon night, then track southeastward through Wed, 
dragging a strong cold front across the entire basin. Strong high 
pressure behind the front will induce gale force north to 
northeast winds expanding across much of the northern and western 
Gulf Tue through Tue night, with the potential for gusts to storm 
force across portions of the west and central Gulf. Mariners are 
urged to exercise extreme caution across the basin, due to the 
expansive area of gale force winds and a large area of very rough 
to high seas that is expected to accompany this next frontal 
system. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong to near gale-force NE to E winds, and rough seas, are from
11N to 18N between 67W and 78W. Fresh NE to E winds, and rough 
seas in NE to E swell, are elsewhere from 18N southward between 
64W and 80W. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds, and moderate
seas, are from 67W eastward. Moderate to fresh surface 
anticyclonic wind flow, and slight seas, are from 80W westward.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended 
at 19/1200 UTC, are: 0.33 in Trinidad; 0.16 in San Juan in Puerto
Rico; and 0.08 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands. This 
information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation
Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Fresh northeast to east winds will prevail across most of the 
Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic waters into the upcoming week, 
with locally strong winds developing each night offshore of 
Colombia, and through the Atlantic Passages and downwind of 
Hispaniola. Easterly trade wind swell will produce rough seas 
through the Atlantic Passages through the upcoming week. A Gulf of
Mexico cold front will sink slowly southward across the Straits 
of Florida and Yucatan Channel tonight, then stall and weaken 
across the far northwestern Caribbean and western Cuba Mon through
Tue. Fresh to strong east winds and building seas will dominate 
most of the basin Mon night through Wed as strong high pressure 
builds north of the cold front. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information
about the Gale-Force Wind Warning that was issued for the Gulf of
Mexico cold front, and the gale-force winds that are just to the
east of Florida. All the information about the Gulf of Mexico is 
in the SPECIAL FEATURES section. The 24-hour rainfall totals in
inches, for the period that ended at 19/1200 UTC, are: 0.03 in 
Freeport in the Bahamas. 

A cold front passes through 31N70W, to 27N76W. Fresh to strong 
southerly winds, and mostly moderate to possibly some rough seas, 
are from 27N northward between 60W and 74W. Moderate to fresh 
surface anticyclonic wind flow is elsewhere between 60W and the 
Bahamas. Moderate seas are elsewhere from 60W westward.

A cold front passes through 31N28W, to 25N40W, 22N53W. A surface
trough continues from 22N53W, to 19N65W just to the NE of Puerto
Rico. Rough seas are from 24N northward from 55W eastward. 
Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.
Fresh to strong NE winds are from the frontal boundary southward
from 40W westward. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from
23N southward to the monsoon trough/the ITCZ from 40W eastward.
Moderate to fresh surface anticyclonic wind flow is from the
frontal boundary northward between 40W and 60W. Moderate to fresh
surface cyclonic wind flow is from 25N northward from 40W
eastward.

Fresh to locally strong south to southwest winds and rough seas 
prevail N of 27N between 65W and 80W in advance of a cold front 
across the NE Gulf of Mexico. This strong cold front will move 
into the northwestern waters late today, reach from near Bermuda 
to western Cuba by Mon evening then stall and weaken on Tue. 
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some strong, are 
expected to accompany this front through this evening. Moderate to
fresh trades will prevail elsewhere S of 23N through the period, 
with winds pulsing to strong speeds east of the Windward Islands 
at times. Another strong cold front is expected to move off the 
southeastern U.S. coast Tue night, and reach from near 31N73W to 
the Florida Keys by Wed morning. This front will be followed by 
strong to near-gale force north winds and building seas north of 
Cuba and W of about 70W through Wed. Winds with frequent gusts to 
gale-force may occur N of 29N W of 77W Tue night. 

$$
mt/ss