000
AXNT20 KNHC 080616
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Apr 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from
31N72W SW to a 1010 mb low near 29N74W then transitions to a cold
front that moves across SE Florida near 25N80W. The low pressure 
will track slowly NE, lifting N of the area near Bermuda Thu, 
while the front drifts E, extending SW from near Bermuda to 
western Cuba later Thu into Fri. Thunderstorms with gusty winds 
will impact waters along and east of the track of the low 
pressure. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure to 
the north of our waters and the front is supporting NE gales 
offshore NE Florida. These gales will spread eastward to about 
72W, mainly north of 28N, through Wed night, before gradually 
ending as the low pressure moves north of the area. Very rough 
seas of 15 to 20 ft will be generated by these gales, and rough 
seas in N swell will impact a much larger area through the end of 
the week. The front is likely to linger over the basin into the 
weekend, so marine conditions could be slow to improve. 

East Atlantic Large Swell: Long period NW to N swell behind a 
cold front that extends across NW Africa and the eastern Atlantic
is creating seas of 11 to 13 ft north of 21N and east of 40W. 
This swell event will continue to propagate southward with seas 8 
ft or greater reaching as far south as 10N on Wed. By late 
Thursday afternoon or early in the evening, the swell should 
decay enough to allow seas to drop below 12 ft.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for
the forecast zone of Madeira. The forecast calls for NW gales to
40 kt, with severe gusts from 08/12 UTC to 09/00 UTC at least.
Very rough seas in NW swell are also reaching the islands. 

For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast 
listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia, Africa and continues SW to 02N21W. The ITCZ extends 
west-southwestward from 02N21W to 00N35W to NE Brazil near 
00N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
03S to 07N between 05W and 38W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The tail of a front stalls across southern Florida, entering the
Gulf SE waters near 25N81W and continuing to a 1010 mb low near
24N85W from where a cold front stretches SW the NE Yucatan
Peninsula offshore waters near 22N88W. Surface ridging has started
to build across the northern Gulf, and is supporting fresh to near
gale force NE winds across the NE Gulf offshores as confirmed by
recent scatterometer data. Seas with these winds are rough to 10
to 11 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker, and seas
moderate in the 4 to 7 ft range. 

For the forecast, the front will stall over the far SE basin 
through Thu, and strong to near gale-force NE winds and rough seas
will continue in the NE Gulf during this time. Conditions will 
gradually improve Fri into the weekend as the high pressure builds
southwestward across the northern basin. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Atlantic ridge extends SW reaching the NE Caribbean. This
system is supporting fresh to locally strong E to SE winds and 
seas of 5 to 7 ft across the eastern part of the basin. Gentle to 
moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are ongoing across the 
SW Caribbean while light and variable winds and slight seas dominate
the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms 
are seen over Hispaniola and E Cuba adjacent waters as well as in
the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail over the 
central and eastern basin into Thu, with gentle to moderate winds 
to the west. Strong high pressure will then build southward from 
the western Atlantic, with a tightening pressure gradient leading 
to increasing winds, especially in the south-central basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Atlantic. Please refer
to the Special Features section for more details. 

A stationary front extends from 31N72W SW to a 1010 mb low near 
29N74W then transitions to a cold front that moves across SE 
Florida near 25N80W. Recent scatterometer data confirm the
presence of gales west of the low and front, over the NE and
central Florida offshore waters. Seas with these winds are rough 
to very rough with peak seas of 16 ft N of the Bahamas. Aside from
the winds and seas, heavy showers and tstms continue to affect the
offshore waters N of 20N between 62W and 77W. Over the far E
Atlantic, the tail of a cold front starts to weaken near 25N20W to
23N41W. Strong high pressure of 1038 mb SW of the Azores is
driving a long-period N to NW swell that is affecting the central,
eastern and tropical Atlantic waters. See the Special Features
Swell section for further details. Otherwise, a broad surface
ridge prevails elsewhere, supporting moderate to fresh E to SE
winds and moderate to rough seas. 

For the forecast west of 55W, please refer to the Special Features
Western Atlantic Gale Warning section for all the information 
related to the above mentioned frontal boundary. 

$$
Ramos