793 
AXNT20 KNHC 041032
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Mar 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between 
strong high pressure over the northwestern Atlantic and low
pressure over Colombia will continue to support strong to gale- 
force NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas across portions
of the south-central and southwestern Caribbean Sea through at 
least Sat night. Winds are expected to be strongest at night due 
to the enhancement of nocturnal drainage flow.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more 
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W to 05N16W. The
ITCZ extends from that point to 00N26W to the coast of Brazil 
near 00N48W. Widely scattered moderate convection is ongoing from
04S to 04N between 24W and 50W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Broad surface ridging extends across the basin with generally 
quiet weather. Winds are moderate from the E to SE and seas are
mainly slight, except for fresh E winds and moderate seas in the 
SE Gulf, including the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend a broad ridge
southwestward into the SE U.S. into the weekend, with the
resultant pressure gradient supporting moderate to fresh E to SE
winds across the Gulf, except NE to E winds in the Bay of
Campeche. Expect winds to pulse fresh speeds each night off the 
northern Yucatan Peninsula. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning 
in the south-central Caribbean. 

Surface ridging from strong high pressure centered N of the area 
is supporting fresh to near-gale winds over the eastern and 
central Caribbean where seas are moderate to rough, except very 
rough offshore Colombia. In the Windward Passage, winds are fresh
to strong from the NE while moderate to fresh NE winds remain across
the lee side of Cuba and the remainder NW Caribbean along with
moderate seas.

For the forecast, broad Atlantic high pressure will maintain a 
ridge southwestward into Florida and the SE U.S. into the weekend 
to support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and 
eastern Caribbean through Sun. Winds offshore of Colombia will 
pulse to gale-force during the nocturnal hours through Sat. Fresh 
to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba 
will continue to pulse through the forecast period. In the Gulf of
Honduras, fresh to strong winds will begin to pulse at night from
Thu through Sat. Elsewhere, rough to very rough seas in easterly 
trade wind swell over the tropical N Atlantic will subside 
modestly Thu through Fri. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

High pressure prevail across the subtropical and tropical Atlantic
basin. The tail end of a stalled front weakens the ridge, entering 
the area near 31N52W and extending to 25N65W. Scattered showers
remain ahead of the front reaching near 45W and N of 24N. Seas 
are elevated to 10 ft across much of the eastern and central 
Atlantic due to long period NE to E swell propagating from a 
former gale-force low near Morocco. Elsewhere over the SW N
Atlantic waters, winds are gentle to moderate from the east,
except fresh to locally strong S of 24N W of 55W, including the
approaches to the Windward Passage. Seas within these winds are
moderate to rough.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will become 
diffuse today. Rough seas N of the front will linger into tonight 
while expanding southeastward and merging with easterly trade wind
swell S of 25N and E of the Bahamas. Otherwise, strong high 
pressure will become centered over the western N Atlantic during 
the next few days and produce fresh to strong E winds mostly south
of 25N.

$$
Ramos