000
AXNT20 KNHC 260409
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Mar 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0355 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N11W and continues
southwestward to 03N17W. The ITCZ extends from 03N17W to 01S30W
and to 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of
05N and east of 41W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure over the NE Gulf dominates the basin, forcing fresh
NE winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche and lighter winds
elsewhere. Seas of 3-5 ft are found in the eastern Bay of Campeche
and slight to moderate seas in the remainder of the Gulf. A
dissipating stationary front stretches from SW Florida to 28N91W,
but no significant convection is noted along this boundary.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist over the 
northeast Gulf through late Fri. A trough over the Bay of Campeche
will support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western
coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through Sat. 
The next cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sat morning, 
reach the SE Gulf by Sun morning, and move southeast of the basin 
late on Sun. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will 
follow the front over the eastern Gulf Sat night through early 
Mon. The pressure gradient will remain strong enough to sustain 
fresh to strong east winds across the SE Gulf and the Straits of 
Florida through the middle of the next week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the Bay Islands to 13N78W and
scattered showers are evident north of this boundary and east of
76W. Pockets of moisture are also impacting Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola supporting a few showers. The pressure gradient between
the ridge north of the basin and lower pressures in northern South
America forces fresh to near gale-force NE-E winds and moderate to
locally rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern
Caribbean, off southern Hispaniola, Windward Passage, lee of Cuba
and NW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will persist overnight
north of a trough along the coast of eastern Honduras. High 
pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low will 
support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas 
offshore Colombia tonight through Sat night. Looking ahead, high 
pressure will follow a strong cold front moving through the 
western Atlantic this weekend, supporting fresh to strong NE winds
and building seas in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, 
and just south of Hispaniola from Sun into the middle of next 
week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A stationary front extends from 31N62W to near Port Saint Lucie, 
Florida. A few showers are noted near this boundary. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to locally strong
easterly winds north of the stationary front. Seas of 6-9 ft are
occurring with these winds.  

For most of the remainder of the basin, a weak pressure gradient
is leading to moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. In the
far eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh N-NE winds and rough seas
are impacting waters north of 20N and east of 27W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh winds and rough seas north of
front will diminish overnight as the front dissipates. Moderate 
winds and seas will prevail Thu through late Fri across the 
region. Looking ahead, another strong cold front will move into 
the waters offshore of northeast Florida by Sat morning, and reach
from 31N65W to central Florida by Sat night, and from 31N60W to 
SE Florida by Sun morning. Strong to near-gale force winds and 
rough to very rough seas will follow the front. 
 
$$
Delgado