794 
AXNT20 KNHC 280914
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jan 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient will tighten
across the Caribbean mid-week through the end of the week as high
pressure north of the basin strengthens and low pressure deepens
slightly over northern Colombia. Fresh to strong winds there are
forecast to pulse to minimal gale-force Wed night right near the
coast of northern Colombia, with gale-force winds possible again
Thu night. Seas may build to 10 to 12 ft Wed night, then 11 to 14
ft Thu night. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 05N09W to 02N14.5W. The ITCZ extends from 02N14.5W to the
Equator at 24W. Scattered moderate convection is found from
roughly 01S to 07N between 25W and 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extending from northern Florida to the north-
central Gulf near 28N89W has stalled as it continues westward to 
near Corpus Christi, Texas. Some scattered showers are found 
near either side of the front with an isolated thunderstorms 
possible. Showers are also noted north of the Yucatan Channel, and
in the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Moderate to locally fresh
winds are in the Gulf south of 24.5N and east of 93W along with 2
3 to 4 ft seas, with mainly gentle to locally moderate winds 
elsewhere, including on either side of the front, along with seas
of 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas 
will follow the western portion of the front as it lifts northward
Wed night and Thu, in response to developing low pressure over 
northeast Mexico and moving into the U.S. Southern Plains. A new, 
trailing cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Thu night, 
reach from near Panama City, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by late 
Fri, then stall from near the Florida Keys to Coatzacoalcos, 
Mexico by late Sat. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will
follow that front, locally strong offshore Veracruz. Winds behind
the front will diminish Sat night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in effect off the coast of Colombia.

A tight pressure gradient is over the central Caribbean between
lower pressure over northern Colombia and high pressure positioned
north of the basin. Fresh to strong winds are in the central
portion with 6 to 8 ft seas, locally 7 to 10 ft near the coast of
Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh trades dominate the remainder
of the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the NW Caribbean, and 4 to 7
ft across the remainder of the waters. Isolated showers are moving
through the far eastern Caribbean as well as near the Gulf of
Honduras, with scattered showers south of Hispaniola to 15N.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds will persist across the 
central Caribbean through mid week, with strong winds pulsing off 
Colombia, and also in the lee of Cuba beginning there tonight. 
Winds will pulse to minimal gale-force Wed night and Thu night off
Colombia. Winds and seas will increase over much of the Caribbean
including the Windward Passage by Thu as high pressure builds 
north of the area. Meanwhile, long-period east swell will continue
to produce locally rough seas through much of the week in the 
tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward and Leeward Islands 
and their passages into the Caribbean, with northerly swell 
arriving this weekend helping to reinforce rough seas. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough extending from 31N58W to the Windward Passage and high 
pressure east of the trough is supporting moderate to fresh E 
winds and moderate seas south of 27N, except rough seas south of 
22N. Gentle breezes and slight seas are west of the trough, except
north of 29N and west of 70W where SW winds have increased to 
fresh to strong near an approaching cold front. That high is
located well to the east of the trough near 30N33W at 1030 mb and
is the dominant feature across the open waters. Fresh to locally
strong trades are south of the Canary and Madeira Islands to
27N35W to near the NE Caribbean, with gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow to the north and under the ridging. Seas are 8
to 11 ft in mainly NE to E swell from south of 29N35W to the near
the NE Caribbean, and 4 to 7 ft north and west of there. To the
east of 35W, 7 to 11 ft seas in a mixed of NE to E and NW swell
prevail, except north of 28N and east of 20W where they are
building to 10 to 14 ft in northerly swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will move into the waters
off northeast Florida later this morning, then weaken as it 
reaches from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas early Wed, then 
further weaken thereafter ahead of a second, stronger front 
expected to move into the waters between northeast Florida and 
Bermuda Thu. The second front will stall and weaken along roughly 
24N into the central Bahamas by early Fri, as high pressure builds
off the Carolinas in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, the 
high pressure will shift eastward Fri, allowing fresh to locally 
strong southerly wind and locally rough seas off northeast Florida
and south of 22N into Sat. 

$$
Lewitsky