936 
AXNT20 KNHC 222040
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Jan 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa
near 11N16W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N47W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 
00N to 07N between 10W and 51W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front has moved into the NW Gulf. There is a weak pressure
gradient over the area, with light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4
ft prevailing. 

For the forecast, the cold front will become stationary early 
this evening, then lift back N as a warm front tonight. Generally,
weak high pressure is over the remainder of the basin. It will be
replaced by slightly stronger high pressure that builds from the 
N on Fri night and Sat. An arctic cold front is expected to enter 
the NW Gulf on Sat, followed by fresh to strong NW to N winds and 
building seas. Reinforcing high pressure in the wake of the front 
may bring gale conditions, first over the offshore waters of 
Tampico Sun night, then over the waters offshore Veracruz on Mon 
as strong high pressure builds in the wake of the front. North 
winds may reach to near gale force across portions of the NW Gulf 
Sun and Sun night. Brief gusts to gale force will be possible 
there. Patchy to areas of dense fog may form mainly along and just
offshore the Texas coast tonight into Fri morning. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7-9 ft, prevail over the south
central Caribbean. Fresh winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, are over the
north central Caribbean. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker,
with moderate seas.  

For the forecast, northeast to east winds will pulse to near gale
force over the offshore waters of Colombia at night through the
period. Broad central Atlantic high pressure will maintain
mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean as
well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through early next week.
Large N swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside
through the weekend, however, seas there will remain at about
8 ft in an E swell through early next week.  

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough extends from 31N71W to the northern Bahamas. Scattered
moderate convection is in the vicinity of the trough. High
pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic discussion
waters. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-12 ft, prevail over
the waters S of 22N. Elsewhere, moderate winds, and seas of 6-8
ft, prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the southeastern
United States extending to offshore northern Florida will 
continue to weaken tonight as a cold front slowly moves across the
southeastern United States. Stronger continental high pressure 
that will build in behind the front will send the front to across 
the NW part of the area on Fri night, where it will stall through 
early Sat, and at which time low pressure will form on its western
portion and shift northward Sat night into Sun pulling the front 
back to the N as a warm front. The low will deepen as it tracks 
eastward well to the N of the forecast waters through Sun night. 
Fresh to strong southwest winds will then develop over the NW 
forecast waters Sun and Sun night in advance of a strong arctic 
cold front that is expected to move offshore northeastern Florida 
late Sun night, preceded and followed by fresh to strong winds and
building seas. The front may be attended by scattered and showers
and thunderstorms as it reaches from near 31N76W to western Cuba 
by Mon afternoon, and from near 31N55W to 25N65W to eastern Cuba 
by late Tue. Arctic high pressure will build in behind the front. 
By late Tue, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are 
expected W of the front to roughly a line from near 31N70W to 
26N80W. 

$$
AL