000
AXNT20 KNHC 202128
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Apr 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N15W to 00N23W. The ITCZ 
continues from 00N23W to 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 16W and 23W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 00N to 05N
between 10W and 17W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends westward from Naples, Florida to 
21N95W. A morning scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to
strong winds are north of the front, although more recent buoy
observations indicate these winds may be diminishing this
afternoon. Similarly, earlier altimeter satellite data indicated
seas to 8 ft over the northern Gulf, but buoys are showing seas
are largely below 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over 
much of the remainder of the waters, with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, the western portion of the front will gradually
dissipate over the central and western Gulf, while the eastern 
portion will resume moving southward and move across Cuba and the 
Yucatan Channel, before stalling along about 21N Wed and 
dissipating early Thu. Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will
return to the Gulf on Thu. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The cold front moving across the Gulf and western Atlantic is
displacing and weakening the typical subtropical ridge that
governs the trade wind flow across the Caribbean. This pattern is
supporting gentle to moderate E trade winds across the basin this
afternoon. Seas are 5-6 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft
elsewhere. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is 
noted at this time.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will develop Tue night
and Wed night across the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba,
associated with a late-season cold front moving slowly across 
Cuba. The front is expected to dissipate across eastern Cuba early
Thu. Tranquil marine conditions are expected across the entire 
basin Fri and Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from just west of Bermuda to the northern 
Bahamas to South Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
active along the front. Fresh to strong NE winds with 7-10 ft seas
are evident north of the front. Farther east, a few showers and 
thunderstorms are also active along a trough ahead of the front 
extending from 30N68W to the central Bahamas. A broad ridge 
dominates the remainder of the discussion area, anchored by 1028 
mb high pressure over the north- central Atlantic west of the 
Azores near 38N41W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate 
winds and seas of 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and 
rough seas will follow the front as it continues moving 
southeastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the Florida Keys 
early tonight, from 31N60W to the NW coast of Cuba by Tue 
afternoon, and then begin to stall and weaken from 31N55W to 
25N60W to eastern Cuba along 21N Wed morning. Winds will diminish 
Wed as the front stalls and dissipates along 21N by early Thu. 
Weak high pressure will settle in between northeast Florida and 
Bermuda Thu through Sat, in the wake of the front. Large N to NE 
swell will linger near the weakening front Tue night through Thu 
morning, including waters near the Windward Passage. 

$$
Christensen