000
AXNT20 KNHC 062100
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Mar 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning and large swell: 
A cold front extends from 31N68W to eastern Cuba. Scattered
showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are occurring near and
up to 120 nm east of the front. Near-gale to gale-force S to SW
winds are N of 27N within 120 nm east of the front. Gale to near-
gale force W winds are N of 28N W of the front. The front has
ushered in a large NW swell, with seas 12 ft or greater covering
the waters N of 27N and W of the front, and currently peaking near
18 ft. The front will progress rapidly eastward reaching from
31N59W to northern Haiti by Fri morning. Gale-force winds
currently occurring on either side of the front are forecast to
diminish below gale force by early Fri morning. However, the very
rough seas in the wake of the front will continue to propagate
across the forecast waters through late this week. Seas 12 ft or
greater will dominate most of the waters N of 25N between 60W and
75W by Fri morning, and N of 29N between 56W and 66W by Fri night.

Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas and Offshore Waters
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFFAT2.shmtl for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Africa 
near 08N13W to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W to 01N50W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
05S to 02N between 22W and 44W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure dominates the Gulf region, anchored by a 1022 mb
high centered near 32N91W. The pressure gradient between the area
of high pressure and lower pressure E of Florida is supporting 
moderate to locally fresh winds across much of the Gulf waters, 
except for gentle winds in the vicinity of the high center. Seas 
are in the 6-9 ft range over the eastern Gulf, and 3-5 ft 
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to build across the
basin through Fri while moving eastward. On Fri, southerly return
flow will set-up across the western Gulf ahead of the next cold 
front that is slated to enter the northwestern Gulf on Sat, 
producing widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas 
in its wake. Gale conditions and rough seas will be possible 
offshore Veracruz on Sun. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends over the NW Caribbean. Moderate winds, and
seas of 2-4 ft prevail W of the front. Otherwise, a weak pressure
gradient prevails, with light to gentle winds dominating much of
the Caribbean, reaching moderate speeds over the waters S of 15N
and E of 75W. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range. 

For the forecast, the front will progress southeastward while 
weakening by tonight. Gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to
moderate seas will prevail across the basin through Fri, with the
exception of moderate to fresh winds near the coast of Colombia. 
Looking ahead, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will 
develop across the basin this weekend as a new cold front moves 
southeastward through the Gulf of America, entering the Caribbean 
early next week. Fresh to strong SE winds will be possible in the 
Gulf of Honduras Sat night into Sun morning. Fresh to strong NE to
E winds are also expected over the south-central Caribbean, 
including the offshore waters of Colombia, Sat through Sun night 
as high pressure builds N of area.inds will be possible in the 
Gulf of Honduras Sat night into Sun. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section about the ongoing Gale 
Warning and large swell.

A cold front extends from 31N68W to eastern Cuba. Aside from the
gale force winds, and large swell, fresh to near gale winds, and
seas of 8-12 ft prevail N of 24N and W of 65W. Farther east,
another cold front enters the waters near 31N28W and extends to
near 29N43W, continuing as a stationary front to near 29N48W, then
as a warm front to near 31N53W. Fresh to locally strong winds are
N of the fronts, with seas of 6-8 ft. South of the front, a 1023
mb high is centered near 27N35W, with light winds in the vicinity
of the high. Elsewhere moderate to fresh winds generally prevail,
with seas in the 5-7 ft range. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will progress rapidly 
eastward reaching from 31N59W to northern Haiti by Fri morning. 
Gale-force winds currently occurring on either side of the front 
across the waters N of 29N are forecast to diminish below gale 
force by early Fri morning. However, the very rough seas in the 
wake of the front will continue to propagate across the forecast 
waters through late this week. Seas 12 ft or greater will dominate
most of the waters N of 25N between 60W and 75W by Fri morning, 
and N of 29N between 56W and 66W by Fri night. High pressure will 
follow the front. Winds and seas will gradually diminish from W to
E during the upcoming weekend. 

$$
AL