066 
AXNT20 KNHC 070453
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Mar 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

W Atlantic Gale Warning and Large Swell: 
A cold front extends from 31N65W to eastern Cuba. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and up to
120 nm east of the front mainly N of 26N. Gale-force winds are
verified by latest scatterometer data mainly N of 29N between 68W
and 74W. The front has ushered in a large NW swell, with seas 12
ft or greater covering the waters N of 27N and W of the front, 
and currently peaking near 19 ft. The front will progress rapidly 
eastward reaching from 31N59W to northern Haiti by Fri morning. 
Gale-force winds currently occurring on either side of the front 
are forecast to diminish below gale force by early Fri morning. 
However, the very rough seas in the wake of the front will 
continue to propagate across the forecast waters through Fri 
night. Seas 12 ft or greater will dominate most of the waters N of
25N between 60W and 75W by Fri morning, and N of 29N between 56W 
and 66W by Fri night.

Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas and Offshore Waters
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFFAT2.shmtl for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Africa 
near 07N12W to 00N10W. The ITCZ continues from 00N10W to 00N48W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within
200 nm on either side of the boundaries mainly W of 15W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure dominates the Gulf region, centered near 29N89W,
1017 mb. Moderate to fresh SE winds prevail across the W half of
the basin, while light to gentle winds prevail E of 90W. Rough
seas are noted over the SE Gulf, while moderate seas prevail 
across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, rough seas in N swell across the southeastern
Gulf of America will subside overnight. Otherwise, the 1017 mb 
high in the north-central Gulf will drift eastward through Sat, 
leading to gentle to moderate E to SE winds east of 88W. Fresh to  
strong SE winds will prevail in the central and western basin on 
Fri as the pressure gradient strengthens between the 
aforementioned high and developing low pressure in the central 
United States. A cold front associated with the low pressure 
system is slated to enter the northwestern Gulf by Sat night, 
leading to widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas
in the wake of the front Sun into Mon. Gale conditions and very 
rough seas will be possible offshore Veracruz on Sun. Looking 
ahead, high pressure will rebuild across the basin early next

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends over the NW Caribbean from 20N77W to 19N61W,
then transitions to a stationary front from that point to 19N88W.
Moderate to fresh winds are noted N of the front, with moderate
seas. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient prevails, with light to
gentle winds dominating much of the Caribbean, reaching moderate 
speeds over the waters S of 15N and E of 75W. Seas are in the 2-4 
ft range. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds are expected in the 
wake of the front through Fri morning, with locally fresh winds 
occurring through the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba. 
Elsewhere, fresh NE winds will be possible offshore of Colombia 
overnight, with winds strengthening and expanding through the Gulf
of Venezuela Fri night. Rough seas will occur near and to the 
west of the strongest winds offshore of Colombia. Otherwise, 
moderate to fresh trade winds are expected across the basin this 
weekend as the pressure gradient strengthens between high pressure
in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low. Fresh to strong 
winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras nightly 
through this weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front moving through 
the Gulf of America this weekend is slated to enter the 
northwestern Caribbean by early next week, leading to fresh to 
locally strong N winds and locally rough seas in its wake. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section about the ongoing Gale 
Warning and large swell event currently occurring.

A cold front extends from 31N65W to eastern Cuba. Aside from the 
gale force winds, and large swell, fresh to near gale winds, and 
seas of 8-12 ft prevail N of 24N and W of 55W. Farther east, 
another cold front enters the waters near 31N24W to 29N42W, then
becomes stationary to 29N48W. Fresh to strong winds are N of the 
fronts, with seas of 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh winds prevail
elsewhere, with seas in the 5-7 ft range. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the storm system related to the front
in the W Atlantic will lift northeastward on Fri, allowing winds 
to diminish by Fri night. Widespread rough seas generated by this 
system will continue to progress to the south and east over the 
next several days, producing rough seas in excess of 8 ft north of
21N through Fri, and north of 20N through Sat. Peak seas of 15 to
19 ft are expected north of 27N between 76W and 63W tonight 
through Fri. Seas will slowly subside from west to east Sat 
through Sun. High pressure will build in the wake of the front 
offshore of Florida by Fri night, as a complex low pressure system
strengthens north of the area. The pressure gradient between 
these features will support moderate to fresh SW winds north of 
29N and west of 70W by Fri night, and west of 60W by Sat night. 
Looking ahead, a cold front is slated to push off the coast of the
southeastern United States by early next week, leading to fresh 
to strong winds and rough seas in the wake of the front.  

$$
ERA