717 
AXNT20 KNHC 182326
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Jan 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front has moved into the NW 
Gulf and extends from central Louisiana to along the Texas- 
Mexico border. Northerly winds behind the front will gradually 
increase tonight, becoming strong by early Sun as the front 
reaches from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico. 
Strong high pressure over the central U.S. will build across the 
basin behind the progressing front on Sun to produce a brief 
period of gale force winds Sun afternoon in the western Gulf 
waters offshore of Tampico and Veracruz. The front is expected to
stall across the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida on Mon 
and gradually dissipate through Tue. Low pressure is expected to 
form over the NW Gulf on Mon night, then track southeastward 
through Wed, dragging a strong cold front across the entire 
basin. Strong high pressure behind the front will induce gale 
force N to NE winds expanding across much of the northern and 
western Gulf Tue and Tue night, with the potential for gusts to 
storm force across central portions. Mariners are urged to 
exercise extreme caution across the basin, due to the expansive 
area of gale force winds and large area of seas 15 to 20 ft 
expected to accompany this next frontal system. 

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at the website: 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the 
coast of Liberia near 07N11W and continues southwestward to 
00N26W. The ITCZ extends from 00N26W to near 01N50W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from the equator to 03N between 30W and 
50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please, see 
the Special Features section for more information. 

As previously mentioned, a cold front has moved into the NW Gulf
and extends from central Louisiana to along the Texas-Mexico 
border. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are along 
the frontal boundary, particularly over southern Louisiana and 
the NE Gulf. Moderate to fresh NW winds follow the front, with 
seas of 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to locally strong SW winds are north N 
27N and east of the front to about 85W. Seas in this area range 
from 3 to 6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds are noted
elsewhere ahead of the front, with seas of 3 to 5 ft, except 1 
to 3 ft across the offshore waters of W Florida, including the 
Big Bend area. 

For the forecast, please refer to the Special Features section 
for a detailed information about the forecast. Mariners are 
urged to exercise caution across the basin, including outside of 
the gale condition affected zones, due to the expansive area of 
strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas 
associated with the passage of two consecutive strong frontal 
systems. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...

Patches of low-level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are
likely producing isolated to scattered passing showers. The 
pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic
and the Colombian low supports moderate to fresh trades across 
the eastern and central Caribbean, as detected by scatterometer 
data. Trades may pule to locally strong speeds off the south 
coast of Hispaniola and in the south-central Caribbean off the 
coast of Colombia. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the eastern and central
Caribbean, with locally 8 ft seas in the south-central Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere in the NW Caribbean,
with 3 to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will prevail across most 
of the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic waters through this 
weekend, with locally strong winds developing each night offshore
of Colombia, and through the Atlantic Passages and downwind of 
Hispaniola. Easterly trade wind swell will produce rough seas 
through the Atlantic Passages through next week. A Gulf of Mexico
cold front will sink slowly southward across the Straits of 
Florida and Yucatan Channel Sun night and then stall and weaken 
across the far NW Caribbean and western Cuba Mon through Tue. 
Fresh to strong E winds and building seas will dominate most of 
the basin Mon night through Wed as strong high pressure builds 
north of the cold front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is just off the NE Florida coast followed by 
another cold front that crosses near the Georgia/Florida border. 
The most recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong S 
winds ahead of these frontal boundaries covering the waters N of 
25N and W of 70W including the NW Bahamas. Seas are 6 to 9 ft 
within these winds. High pressures in the west-central Atlantic E
of Bermuda and west of the Canary Islands are divided by two 
cold fronts in the central subtropical Atlantic. One front 
extends from 31N36W to 24N47W where it becomes a surface trough, 
and the other front extends from 31N47W to 27N60W. Fresh to 
strong W to NW winds and seas up to 13 ft follow the second 
front, with the highest seas along 31N. Moderate to locally fresh
SW winds and seas to 10 ft are observed ahead of the first front
to about 34W. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft 
dominate the tropical Atlantic, with an area of fresh to strong 
NE to E winds covering the waters from 15N to 21N between 60W and
68W. These winds are affecting the Leeward Islands, the NE 
Caribbean, the regional waters of Puerto Rico, the US/UK Virgin 
Islands, and the Mona Passage. Seas are 6 to 8 ft this area, 
including the Atlantic passages. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or
weaker with 4 to 7 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong S winds and rough 
seas are off the Florida coast to 70W and N of 25N, in advance of
a slow moving cold front that is offshore of the southeastern 
U.S. coast and northeast Florida. Low pressure along the front 
will track NE tonight and move well N of the forecast waters. 
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere S of 23N through 
the period, with winds pulsing to strong speeds east of the 
Windward Islands at times. A cold front will move into the 
northwestern waters on Sun inducing fresh to strong SW winds 
ahead of the front and NW winds behind it N of 28N. The front 
will reach from near Bermuda to western Cuba by Mon evening then 
stall on Tue. A strong cold front is expected to move off the 
southeastern U.S. coast Tue night, and reach from near 31N73W to 
the Florida Keys by Wed morning. This front will be followed by 
strong to near-gale force north winds and building seas north of 
Cuba and west of 70W through Wed. 

$$ 
GR