000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200948
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed May 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 91W, extending north of 04N into Guatemala,
and is moving west at 5 kt. It is enhancing convection near the 
monsoon trough described in the section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 11N87W to 07N89W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N93W to 1007 mb low pressure near 07N120W,
then continues on to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is active from 06N to 09N east of 88W, from 06N to 
12N between 95W and 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak 1014 mb low pressure area is southwest of Guadalupe Island
near 27N120W, along a trough reaching from near San Diego,
California to 24N121W. This feature is breaking up the usual
subtropical ridge over the area, and therefore allowing only
light to gentle breezes off Baja California, except for moderate
winds near Cabo San Lucas. Combined seas are 6-7 ft primarily in
NW swell off Baja California. Light breezes and slight seas 
prevail across the Gulf of California. Gentle breeze and 4-6 ft 
in NW swell persist off southern Mexico. 

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to support mostly 
gentle to moderate NW winds across the area waters, with fresh 
winds possible near the coast of Cabo San Lucas each afternoon 
and evening.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E gap winds with 5-7 ft seas prevail across the 
Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 90W this morning. 
Moderate easterly winds then extend beyond 90W to well south of 
Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate breezes with 3-5 ft seas in SW 
swell are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse 
across the Papagayo region, mainly in the overnight and early 
morning hours through Thu morning, then diminish through Sat. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along with moderate seas in 
southerly swell are expected through the end of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge extends north of 20N southward from a 1035
mb high near 40N141W, and southeastward around a low level 
trough just southwest of Isla Guadalupe, to near the 
Revillagigedo Islands. This ridge is supporting moderate to fresh
N to NE winds north of 10N and west of 120W, with 7-10 ft
combined seas primarily in NW swell. Gentle to moderate breezes
and 5-7 ft are noted elsewhere. Trade wind convergence is
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms along the ITCZ
between 105W and 120W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will continue to 
gradually weaken while shifting southwestward through the end of
the week. This will allow winds and seas north of the ITCZ to 
steadily subside from east to west through midweek, becoming 
gentle to moderate winds with 6 to 7 ft seas by Fri. Winds south
of the ITCZ will also becoming gentle by Fri with seas remaining
at 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell.

$$
Christensen