000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070918
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Sep 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 24.4N 123.7W at 07/0900
UTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with
gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are to near 26 ft. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 20N to 26N between 120W and 125W. Steady 
weakening is expected to continue for the next several days, and 
Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low Tuesday 
night or early Wednesday. Swells generated by Marie will 
continue to affect portions of the coast of the Baja California 
Peninsula and southern California for the next couple of days. 
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip 
current conditions. Please consult products from your local 
weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United 
States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
 
A tropical wave has its axis along 109W from 03N to 18N, moving 
westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted near the 
wave axis between 104W-114W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 11N140W. Scattered to 
numerous moderate to strong convection is within 400 nm S of the
trough. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on 
T.S. Marie.

Fresh to strong southeast to south winds on the outer fringe 
of Marie are over the outer offshore waters mainly N of 24N. 
Seas within these winds are 8 to 11 ft in southwest to west 
swell. Moderate or weaker winds and rough seas in southwest to 
west swell are over the rest of the Baja California offshore 
waters. Over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, 
moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are 
prevalent.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Marie will move to 24.8N 124.6W
this afternoon, 25.4N 125.8W Tue morning, 26.5N 126.9W Tue 
afternoon, 28.2N 127.9W Wed morning, weaken to a remnant low near
30.4N 129.2W Wed afternoon, and 32.4N 130.8W Thu morning. Marie 
will change little in intensity as it moves to 36.0N 134.6W by 
early Fri. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are expected to 
briefly develop over the nearshore waters of Baja California and 
in the northern Gulf of California early this week as Marie moves
farther away from the forecast waters. The next gap wind event 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to begin by around 
midweek.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh northeast to east winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo 
region. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, moderate 
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are affecting much of the offshore 
waters of Central America and Colombia, some of which may be 
accompanied by gusty winds and higher seas.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across the 
Gulf of Papagayo region through the next several days. Building 
ridging by the middle of the week will result in strong gap 
winds and rough seas there, with winds possibly reaching near 
gale speeds by midweek. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly 
winds are expected across the waters between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Tue through Wed. Moderate or lighter winds are expected
elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information about
T.S. Marie.

Outside from marine impacts attributed to Marie over the 
northeast portion of this part of the region, fresh cyclonic 
winds and rough seas persist from 22N to 26N and west of 138W 
associated with the outer eastern quadrant of the remnants of 
Karina that continues to move farther away from the eastern 
Pacific basin. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds with seas of 5
to 7 ft are prevalent across the remainder of the tropical 
eastern Pacific.

For the forecast, T.S. Marie will move to 24.8N 124.6W
this afternoon, 25.4N 125.8W Tue morning, 26.5N 126.9W Tue 
afternoon, 28.2N 127.9W Wed morning, weaken to a remnant low near
30.4N 129.2W Wed afternoon, and 32.4N 130.8W Thu morning. Marie 
will change little in intensity as it moves to 36.0N 134.6W by 
early Fri. 

Cross equatorial swell will produce seas to 8 ft in the southern
waters west of 100W during the week. To the east, an area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough 
of low pressure is located several hundred miles south-southwest
of southwestern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is 
possible, and a tropical depression could form during the middle 
or latter portions of the week while the system moves generally 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt.

$$
ERA