000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151005
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri May 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia
southwestward to the border between Panama and Colombia,
to 06N80W to 08N86W and to 05N95W, where it transitions to 
the ITCZ to 04N101W to 05N110W to 05N120W to 05N130W and to 
04N139W. Numerous moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between
122W-130W, also within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 81W-85W,
and between 95W-98W, and also within 60 nm south of the 
trough between 90W-95W and between 126W-131W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between broad ridging west of Baja 
California and relatively lower pressure in Baja California is 
generally allowing for mostly moderate northwest to north winds 
north of Punta Eugenia, and for moderate to fresh northwest to 
north winds south of Punta Eugenia as indicated in an overnight 
scatterometer data pass. Seas are in the range of 5 to 7 ft in 
northwest swell over the offshore waters of Baja California, 
except for slighter higher seas to 8 ft along 30N.

A thermal trough extends from the northern Gulf of California 
south-southeastward across the Gulf of California. Its related
gradient is allowing for gentle to moderate west to northwest 
winds over most of the Gulf, except for fresh southwest winds in 
the northern section. An overnight scatterometer satellite data 
pass depicted most of these winds. Seas over the Gulf are 3 to 4
ft, except for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in long-period south to 
southwest swell at the entrance to the Gulf and 3 to 5 ft over 
the waters from 24N to 25N.

Fresh to strong north winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region
along with seas of 6 to 8 ft while light to gentle mostly west to
northwest winds are elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters.
Seas are 4 to 7 ft in long-period south to southwest swell.
 
Isolated showers are seen over the offshore waters of the states
of Oaxaca and Guerrero.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds and rough 
seas will persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this 
morning. Moderate to fresh southwest to west gap winds in the 
northern Gulf of California are expected to pulse to strong at 
night this weekend. Moderate to fresh northwest winds over the 
offshore waters of Baja California will continue through Sun 
night, except increasing to fresh to strong speeds west of Baja 
California Norte along with very rough seas expected to peak to, 
or near 15 ft in large northwest swell tonight through Sun night
due to a quick tightening of the pressure gradient related to a 
broad and strong area of high pressure northwest of the area that
will be shifting eastward. This swell should propagate southward
leading to moderate to rough seas west and southwest of Baja 
California Sur early next week.
 
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Latest satellite scatterometer data passes reveal moderate to 
fresh easterly gap winds and 6 to 8 ft seas extend offshore of 
southern Nicaragua and the Papagayo region to near 90W. Moderate 
north to northeast winds are present in the Gulf of Panama as 
seen in an overnight scatterometer satellite data pass. Light to
gentle winds and seas of about 4 to 6 ft in long-period south 
to southwest swell are over the remainder of the Central American
offshore waters. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are over 
the offshore waters west of Colombia and Ecuador, and to the 
waters in the vicinity of the Galapagos Islands. Good coverage of
altimeter satellite data passes over these waters indicate seas 
of 4 to 6 ft in long-period southwest swell. 

For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse to strong with 
locally rough seas during night time hours offshore of the 
Papagayo region through early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected 
through early next week. Moderate to fresh north to northeast 
winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama tonight. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over some of
the offshore waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica going
into the weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad ridging stretches southeastward from a strong 1035 mb high
center located well northwest of the region to near 19N113W. 
This ridge controls the wind regime north of the ITCZ. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressure 
related to the ITCZ and a couple of troughs: one analyzed from near 
12N128W to 04N140W and the other one from near 12N111W to 06N120.5W 
supports mostly fresh trades north of 08N west of 134W, and from 09N 
to 28N between 125W and 134W as revealed in overnight scatterometer 
data passes. Seas over these waters are 6 to 8 ft per overnight 
altimeter satellite data passes and few Sofar Ocean Spotter buoys 
located north of 22N and west of about 123W. The scatterometer 
satellite data passes show gentle to moderate east to southeast 
winds south of the ITCZ, where seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed southeast 
and southwest long-period swell.

For the forecast, the strong 1035 mb high pressure center will
slide eastward through the late Sat leading to a tightening of 
the pressure gradient over the far northeast part of the area.
This will usher in fresh to strong northwest to north winds over 
this same of the area during the weekend. Resultant large north 
swell will build seas there to near 15 ft. The high is forecast 
to weaken some early next week allowing for the gradient to 
slacken just for the fresh to strong to diminish to mostly 
moderate to fresh speeds. The large north swell will begin to 
slowly subside from Mon and beyond, with seas west of Baja 
California dropping to below 12 ft.

$$
Aguirre