000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121443
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue May 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1400 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N85W to 05N100W to 08N111W
to 05N119W to 08N133W to 06N140W. Isolated to widely scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N
between 79W and 89W, from 01N to 09N between 90W and 103W, from 
03N to 15N between 107W and 110W, and within 240 nm either side 
of the monsoon trough between 114W and 134W. Similar convection
is noted within 300 nm of Mexico between 92W and 99W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge extends across the waters offshore Baja California
while troughing is analyzed from near the SW Arizona/California
border southward across the Gulf of California. This pattern
supports gentle to moderate winds across the waters, except in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec where strong to near gale-force northerly
winds are present. This is due to a tight pressure gradient with
high pressure ridging building southward across eastern Mexico
out ahead of an incoming cold front in the Gulf of America. Seas
are 6-8 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and 5-6 ft elsewhere
offshore in a mix of long period SW and NW swells. In the Gulf of
California, seas are 3 ft or less.

Clusters of scattered moderate isolated strong convection are
present within about 300 nm of the coast of Mexico between 92W
and 99W. Strong and gusty winds to gale-force and rough seas are
very likely to by accompanying this activity.
 
For the forecast, strong to near gale-force northerly gap winds
will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu morning as high
pressure builds over eastern Mexico with cold front passing by in
the Bay of Campeche. Seas will build to around 10 ft at times
with these winds. Fresh to strong N winds will then pulse there
into early Fri before diminishing. Fresh to locally strong SW 
winds will briefly develop in the northern Gulf of California
this evening and night as a NE to SW trough develops there. 
Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across 
the remainder of the offshore waters, increasing to moderate to 
fresh offshore Baja California Wed through Fri as ridging west of
the Baja peninsula strengthens. Winds may increase to fresh to 
strong well offshore Baja California Norte this weekend. Mainly 
5-7 ft seas in mixed SW and NW swell will dominate the offshore 
waters, potentially building to 8 ft offshore Baja California 
Norte by Fri night, then possibly to at least 8-11 ft late Sat.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong E winds are offshore southern Nicaragua and the 
Papagayo region and extend offshore to 89W this morning. Seas 
are 6-7 ft with these winds. Moderate N-NE winds prevail across 
the Gulf of Panama, where seas are 3-5 ft. Light to gentle winds 
and 4-6 ft seas in southerly swell dominate the remainder of the
offshore waters of Central and northern South America, except to
7 ft SW of the Galapagos Islands. Very active convection 
continues across the offshore waters from 04N to 09N and into
portions of the coastal waters of Costa Rica, Panama, and 
Colombia as described above. Strong and gusty winds, and rough 
seas are very likely to by accompanying this activity.

For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse to locally strong 
offshore of the Papagayo region through much of the week, mainly
at night into the early morning hours, building seas locally to 
rough at times. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate 
seas in southerly swell are expected through the remainder of the
week and into the upcoming weekend. Showers and thunderstorms 
are expected to remain active across the waters south of 09N 
through at least Wed evening. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge extends across the waters N of 20N with broad
troughing from N of the monsoon trough to 20N. This pattern
supports gentle to moderate mainly NE trades across the waters N
of the monsoon trough, along with 6-7 ft seas in mixed long
period southerly and northerly swell. Mainly gentle E-SE winds
prevail S of the monsoon trough, along with 6-7 ft seas, except
7-9 ft seas in southerly swell S of the Equator and W of 100W.
Active convection is present near much of the monsoon trough axis
as described above.

For the forecast, the ridge will weaken slightly ahead of an 
approaching weak cold front. The associated weakened pressure 
gradient will support moderate trades, fresh at times, N of the 
ITCZ to about 22N and W of 120W today, with seas of 6-7 ft 
across this area, locally to 8 ft tonight. Mainly gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere during 
the week. New high pressure will begin to build across the region
from the NW early Wed through Fri to produce fresh trade winds S
of 23N and W of 125W, with seas building 7-9 ft. N winds are 
expected to strengthen slightly to fresh to strong across the NE 
and N-central waters by the weekend, with seas building there as
a result. Rough seas to around 8 ft in southerly swell will 
continue across the far southwestern waters S of the Equator and
W of 100W, and will persist there today and tonight. Seas of 
around 8 ft may continue across this same area through the end 
of the week and into the weekend.

$$
Lewitsky