000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222055
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Oct 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Vance is centered near 10.0N 101.5W at 22/2100
UTC, moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with
gusts to 65 kt. Seas are peaking near 23 ft. Numerous moderate 
and scattered strong convection is from 04N to 13N between 94W 
and 105W. Vance is forecast to turn toward the northwest and 
north- northwest over the next 72 hours. The environment appears 
generally conducive for significant intensification during the 
next couple of days. The current forecast has Vance reaching 
hurricane intensity tonight, and reaching category 3 strength 
late Friday night into Saturday before starting a weakening trend
Sat night. Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin 
affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern 
Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather 
office for details.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
T.S. Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure over Mexico and TS Vance is supporting near-gale 
force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
accompanied by rough seas. Winds will pulse to gale force 
tonight and Fri night across the Tehuantepec region as Vance 
further intensifies. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N91W. It resumes 
west of T.S. Vance near 07N105W to 04N113W. The ITCZ extends 
from 04N113W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 00N to 00N between 120W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Storm Vance and a Gale warning in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and T.S. Vance, light to 
gentle breezes and moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas 
in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, Vance will strengthen to a hurricane near 
10.3N 101.9W Fri morning, move to 10.9N 102.4W Fri afternoon, 
11.6N 102.7W Sat morning, 12.6N 103.1W Sat afternoon, 13.8N 
103.4W Sun morning, and 15.0N 103.7W Sun afternoon. Vance will 
change little in intensity as it moves to near 16.1N 104.2W Mon 
afternoon. The pressure gradient between high pressure over 
Mexico and TS Vance is supporting near-gale force northerly gap 
winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, accompanied by 
rough seas. Winds will pulse to gale force tonight and Fri night 
across the Tehuantepec region as Vance further intensifies. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the
discussion waters.

For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo
region. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail 
elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features section above for information on T.S. 
Vance.

Elsewhere, a weakening cold front extends from Baja California
Norte to 18N125W. Moderate winds and rough seas, with maximum 
wave heights to 9 ft, follow the front. Gentle to moderate winds
and moderate seas in a mix of swell are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the front will dissipate tonight, with winds 
and seas decreasing as they spread southward over the waters 
north of 15N and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas will persist elsewhere. T.S. Vance will strengthen
to a hurricane near 10.3N 101.9W Fri morning, move to 10.9N 
102.4W Fri afternoon, 11.6N 102.7W Sat morning, 12.6N 103.1W Sat 
afternoon, 13.8N 103.4W Sun morning, and 15.0N 103.7W Sun 
afternoon. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves to 
near 16.1N 104.2W Mon afternoon.

$$
AL