000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170958
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun May 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Northern Gulf of California Gale Warning: The pressure gradient 
between strong high pressure west of Baja California and 
relatively lower pressures in northwest Mexico and in the Gulf 
of California will induce fresh to strong south to southwest 
winds in the northern and central Gulf of California through
late this morning, then diminish to mostly fresh speeds for 
this afternoon. These winds will quickly increase to near gale 
to gale-force in the northern portion of the Gulf tonight into 
early on Mon. Seas are expected to build to around 9 ft with 
these winds. Conditions will improve on Mon as the high pressure 
weakens allowing for the culprit tight pressure gradient to 
slacken leading to winds diminishing.

Significant Swell Event for the NE Part of the Area: Large
long-period northwest swell with a period of 13-15 seconds has 
started to propagate through the waters west of Baja California 
Norte, roughly north of 26N between 117W and 126W. The swell will
continue to spread south-southeastward across the rest of the 
waters of Baja California through Mon morning. It is forecast to 
build significant wave heights to a peak of about 16 ft over the
offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia today and tonight, and to
a peak of around 13 ft over the waters from Punta Eugenia to 
Cabo San Lazaro through early on Mon. The swell is forecast to 
slowly decay going into the middle part of the week. Marine 
interests transiting through these waters are urged to use 
caution, and to stay up to date with the latest forecast. 

Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia westward 
to along the northern coast of Panama and to across southern 
Costa Rica, then to the coast at 09N84W to 05N94W and to 
06N101W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N111W to 07N120W 
to 06N132W and to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate to strong 
convection is from 04N to 09N between 82W-85W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01N to 06N 
between 85W-89W, and within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 
132W-137W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south
of the ITCZ between 89W-92W, and within 120 nm north of the
ITCZ between 114W-120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above regarding a 
brief episode of gale winds in the northern Gulf of California
tonight, and for details on a late-season significant swell 
event for waters west of Baja California Norte.

Aside from the expected gale conditions in the northern Gulf of 
California and the significant swell for west of Baja 
California, the same tight pressure gradient between strong high 
pressure west of Baja California and relatively lower pressure in
Baja California associated to a thermal trough will lead to 
fresh to strong northwest winds over the offshore waters west of 
Baja California Norte through tonight before diminishing, and 
moderate to fresh northwest winds west of Baja California Sur 
also through tonight. Seas are expected to build to around 16 ft 
over the offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia Sun and Sun night
and to around 13 ft south of Punta Eugenia through early on Mon 
as a set of long-period northwest to north swell moves through 
those waters as described above under Special Features. Moderate 
to fresh south to southwest winds are over the central Gulf of 
California, while light to gentle variable winds are over the 
southern portion. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the central portion and
3 to 5 ft over the southern portion. Light to gentle winds along
with seas of about 3 to 5 ft in long-period south to southwest 
swell are over the rest of the Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, winds will diminish over the waters west of 
Baja California on Mon. The northwest swell will slowly subside 
going into the middle part of the week. The light to gentle winds
and seas over the remainder of the offshore waters will change 
little going into the middle part of the week under a rather weak
pressure pattern. Moderate to east to southeast winds are 
expected across the outer waters of the Tehuantepec region Tue 
and Tue night along with moderate seas.
 
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are in the Papagayo 
region. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. Otherwise, a rather
weak pressure pattern is maintaining light to gentle southwest to 
west winds south of the monsoon trough, and light to gentle 
northwest to north winds north of the trough. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in 
long-periosd south to southwest swell over these waters. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds 
will pulse in the Papagayo region at night well into the 
upcoming week. Locally rough seas will accompany these winds. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along with moderate seas in 
southerly swell are expected through the upcoming week. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds and 
heavy rain producing low visibilities, will remain over the 
offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama through at least the 
early part of the week. At the same time, scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are expected over the offshore waters of 
Colombia. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge stretches southeastward from a strong 1034 mb high 
center that is located well north of the area near 39N138W to near 
19N115W. This feature continues to dominate the wind pattern north 
of the ITCZ. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds are over the 
northeast part of the area along with seas of 8 to 12 ft in large 
northwest swell. Overnight scatterometer data passes depict fresh 
trades generally from 08N to 26N west of about 133W, and also from 
08N to 23N between 120W and 133W. Seas over these waters are 7 to 9 
ft, as noted in altimeter satellite data passes, in mixed northeast 
and northwest long-period swell. Gentle to moderate east to 
southeast winds are south of the ITCZ, where seas are 5 to 7 ft per 
latest altimeter satellite data passes.

For the forecast, the previously described ridge will move little 
through late tonight maintaining a tight pressure gradient
roughly over the waters north of 27N between 120W and 130W and 
keeping the fresh to strong northwest to north winds over this 
same area until Mon morning. The seas of 7 to 9 ft will begin to 
slowly diminish in coverage starting Tue.

$$
Aguirre