000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140845
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu May 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10.5N74W to 08N78W to
09.5N86W to 04.5N97W. The ITCZ extends from 06N101W to 06N127W, 
then resumes W of a surface trough from 04N133W to beyond 
08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 
02.5N to 09N E of 101W, from 08.5N to 11.5N between 102W and 
110W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong 
convection is noted from 00N to 10.5N between 119W and 139W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge across the region extends southeastward across the
waters W of 110W, to the Revillagigedo Islands. Troughing 
extends across western Mexico. Recent satellite scatterometer
winds show that this pressure pattern is supporting moderate to 
locally fresh NW to N winds offshore Baja California north of 
Cabo San Lazaro, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across 
the Baja waters. Seas across these Baja waters are 5 to 7 ft in 
mixed NW and SW swell. Scatterometer data also showed moderate to
locally fresh W to SW gap winds across the northern Gulf of
California, and gentle to moderate NW winds across the remainder
of the Gulf. Seas are 2 to 4 ft and building across the northern
Gulf and 2 to 3 ft elsewhere. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere from Baja Sur to Puerto Angel, where seas are 5 to 6 ft
in SW swell. N to NE gap winds have begun to pulse to near 30 kt 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and extend offshore to near 14N, 
where seas are 6 to 9 ft. 

For the forecast, strong northerly gap winds will continue to 
pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri due to
high pressure across NE Mexico and the western Gulf of America. 
Seas will peak around 10 ft with these peak winds. Fresh W to SW 
gap winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California tonight
through Thu morning as a trough briefly deepens, with similar 
conditions expected again each night through Sun night. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh NW winds are expected across the offshore 
waters of Baja California through Fri as high pressure well to 
the NW gradually builds into the area. Winds will increase to 
fresh to strong well offshore Baja California Norte this weekend,
and mostly fresh across the remaining Baja waters, then diminish
Mon. Moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell will dominate the 
offshore waters today, gradually building to 8-9 ft offshore 
Baja California Norte early Fri night, then to 9-15 ft early Sun
through midday Mon. Seas of 8 ft or greater are expected to 
spread southward to the Revillagigedo Islands by early Tue. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to locally
strong easterly gap winds extend offshore of southern Nicaragua 
and the Papagayo region to 88W. Seas are 6-7 ft there. Moderate
to locally fresh NW to N winds prevail across the Gulf of 
Panama and extends southward to Punta Mala, where seas are 3 to 
4 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the area 
waters, with seas of 4-6 ft in SW swell, except 5-7 ft in mixed 
southerly swell S of the Equator. Numerous strong thunderstorms 
are shifting westward off the coast of Colombia and into the 
approach to the Gulf of Panama, while scattered showers and 
thunderstorms extend from 02.5N northward into the coastal waters
of western Panama and southeastern Cost Rica. 

For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse to locally strong 
offshore of the Papagayo region through the rest of the week, 
mainly at night into the early morning hours, with building seas 
to locally rough during those times. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected 
through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. 
Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds will pulse across the 
Gulf of Panama to the Azuero Peninsula at night. Showers and 
thunderstorms across the coastal waters of Colombia, Panama and
Costa Rica will gradually shift westward and diminish across the
area through Thu, then develop again each evening through night 
through Sat.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1030 mb high pressure just N of the area near 38N139W extends a 
ridge southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands, and dominates 
the waters N of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the 
ridging and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ, including an
embedded surface trough from 12N122W to 04N131W, supports 
moderate to fresh NE to E trades across most of the waters N of 
the ITCZ and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere 
across the open waters, including S of the ITCZ. Seas are 6-8 ft
in southerly swell S of 05N between 100W and 125W. Seas are 7-9 
ft in mixed swells from roughly 10N to 27N to the W of 128W, and
from 05N to 21N between 119W and 130W. Active convection 
continues between 120W and 135W, near portions of the ITCZ and 
the surface trough as described above.

For the forecast, high pressure NW of the area will continue to 
build east and southeastward across the region tonight through 
Sun, then shift W and weaken early next week. This pattern will 
support continued fresh trade winds N of the ITCZ and W of 120W,
with seas of 8-9 ft mainly W of 125W, and 6-7 ft between 118W 
and 125W. N winds are expected to strengthen slightly to fresh to
strong across the Baja Norte waters and expand across the NE and
N-central waters by the weekend before diminishing late Mon
through Tue. Seas across the northeast waters will begin to 
build late Fri in northerly swell, building to 8 to 10 ft Sat 
morning, and to 10-15 ft midday Sun through midday Mon. Rough 
seas to around 8 ft in southerly swell will continue across the 
far southwestern waters to near the Equator and W of 100W today 
and then build to 8-9 ft late Fri through the weekend in mixed SE
and S swell. 

$$
Stripling