000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171558
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jul 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Elida: Tropical Storm Elida is centered near 16.8N 
120.8W at 17/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated 
minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed 
is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are currently around 20
or 6.0 m. Elida is moving toward the west-northwest. A turn toward
the northwest is expected later today, followed by a north-
northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed by Sunday.
Some strengthening is possible, and Elida could still become a 
hurricane within the next day. Weakening is expected to start 
over the weekend and continue into early next week. Swells generated 
by Elida will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja 
California peninsula through this weekend. These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Elida NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Central and Western East Pacific: A tropical wave with axis along
105W is producing a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected
to form over the weekend while it moves west-northwestward to 
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central portion of the 
eastern Pacific. This system currently has a high chance of 
tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and also through 
the next 7 days. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, expect
increasing winds and building seas to impact portions of the 
waters well offshore southwest Mexico to the Revillagigedo 
Islands this weekend into early next week. 

Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website - www.hurricanes.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 105W, from 03N to 17N just offshore of the
coast of southwestern Mexico, moving westward at around 10 kt. A
1009 mb low pressure (Invest EP97) is analyzed along the wave 
axis near 11N. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted 
from 12N to 15.5N between 100W and 108W. Similar convective activity
is within 60 nm south of the low center. Please, see the Special
Features section for more information about this tropical wave. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from low pressure over northern Colombia
at 10N76W to 07N90W to 1009 mb low pressure near 11N105W to 12N114W,
then resumes southwest of Elida from 11N129W to beyond 10N140W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N
E of 90W to the coast of Colombia, from 07N to 13N between 90W 
and 99W, from 12N to 15.5N between 100W and 108W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical 
Storm Elida, centered about 715 nautical miles southwest of the 
southern tip of Baja California, and on a tropical wave located near
105W with the potential for tropical cyclone formation.

Fresh to strong winds and rough seas of 8 to 11 ft associated 
with the periphery of Tropical Storm Elida continue to impact the
waters near Clarion Island, particularly from 17N to 22N between
113W and 116W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and moderate to 
locally rough seas are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A weak ridge 
dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing light to gentle winds with moderate seas. Light to
gentle winds are also noted in the Gulf of California with slight
seas. Active convection is present in the vicinity of Cabo 
Corrientes. Some shower activity is over southern Baja California
associated with an upper-level low. 

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Elida will move to 17.5N 121.9W
this evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 18.7N 123.2W Sat 
morning, 20.4N 124.5W Sat evening, weaken to a tropical storm 
near 22.0N 125.6W Sun morning, 24.1N 126.6W Sun evening, and 
26.0N 127.3W Mon morning. Elida will become post-tropical as it 
moves to near 30.4N 128.8W early Tue. As Elida moves toward the 
NW, the ridge over Baja California will weaken leading to mainly 
light to gentle winds. However, seas generating by Elida will 
propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California 
today through Sun. Expect building seas of 8 to 10 ft, mainly 
across the outer forecast waters. In the Gulf of California, 
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail, except for
locally fresh winds in the northern Gulf at times. Fresh to 
strong northerly winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through the next several days, with locally rough 
seas at times.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds continue across the Papagayo region
and downwind to near 90W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are 
noted elsewhere from 09N to 12N to the west of 86W, and near the 
Gulf of Fonseca. Seas are 6 to 9 ft downstream of Papagayo. 
Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama,
and near the Azuero Peninsula. Moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas, primarily in S to SW swell, dominate the remainder
of the offshore waters, except slight seas in the immediate lee 
of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia. Active 
convection is present near the monsoon trough across much of the 
offshore waters as described above, with locally higher winds 
and seas possible.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to 
rough seas will persist across the Papagayo region through early
next week, with moderate to fresh NE winds pulsing near the Gulf
of Fonseca. Moderate seas in SW swell are expected elsewhere, 
except in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and 
nearshore western Colombia where slight seas are forecast. 
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama 
at night. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere into 
early next week, possibly freshening south of the monsoon trough 
by midweek. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical 
Storm Elida, centered about 715 nautical miles southwest of the 
southern tip of Baja California, and on a tropical wave located
near 105W with the potential for tropical cyclone formation.

A ridge dominates most of the waters north of the monsoon trough and
north and west of Elida. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and Elida supports moderate to fresh N to NE winds from 12N to 
30N west of 120W along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Winds are mainly 
moderate or weaker elsewhere, with 5 to 7 ft in mixed swells. 
Very active convection is along the monsoon trough to the east- 
southeast of Elida as described above.

For the forecast, as previously mentioned, Tropical Storm Elida 
will move to 17.5N 121.9W this evening, strengthen to a hurricane
near 18.7N 123.2W Sat morning, 20.4N 124.5W Sat evening, weaken 
to a tropical storm near 22.0N 125.6W Sun morning, 24.1N 126.6W 
Sun evening, and 26.0N 127.3W Mon morning. Elida will become 
post-tropical as it moves to near 30.4N 128.8W early Tue.

$$
GR