000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111540
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon May 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 07N95W to 09N108W
to 04.5N116W to 07N129W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 77W and 92W,
from 09N to 16N between 101W and 106W, and from 03N to 09.5N
between 131W and 140W. Similar convection is noted in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure well west-
northwest of the area near 31N135W to offshore SW Mexico. A 
surface trough is analyzed from near the SW Arizona/California 
border to across the Gulf of California. This pattern supports 
moderate N-NE winds offshore Baja California Sur, and Gentle NW-N
winds offshore Baja California Norte. Seas offshore Baja 
California area mainly 5-6 ft in mixed long period SW and NW 
swells. Light and variable winds with 1-3 ft seas prevail across 
the Gulf of California. Moderate northerly winds are in the 
immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec where scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is also noted. Mainly light and variable winds 
with 5-6 ft seas dominated by SW swell cover the remainder of the
SW and southern Mexico offshore waters. 

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue over the
offshore waters S of 16N and between 101W and 106W due to an
active mid to upper level trough.
 
For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds will
develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late tonight and then pulsing
through early Thu, near gale-force at times during the late night
and early morning hours, as the pressure gradient tightens over
southeastern Mexico in the wake of cold front N of the area. Seas
will build to rough at times with these winds. Fresh to strong 
SW winds may very briefly develop in the northern Gulf of 
California Tue night as a cold front moves by mainly to the N. 
Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across 
the remainder of the offshore waters, increasing to moderate to 
fresh offshore Baja California by the end of the week as ridging 
west of the peninsula strengthens. Mainly 5-7 ft seas in mixed SW
and NW swells will dominate the offshore waters, potentially
building to 8 ft offshore Baja California Norte by the end of the
week.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE-E winds are offshore Nicaragua, including the
Gulf of Papagayo due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Seas
are 6-8 ft with these winds. Moderate N winds are in the Gulf of
Panama. Light to gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas in S-SW dominate
the remainder of the offshore waters of Central and northern
South America. Active convection is present across the offshore
waters of Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica as described above.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE-E winds will pulse offshore
Gulf of Papagayo through the week, mainly at night into the early
morning hours, building seas locally to rough at times. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in 
southerly swell are expected through the week. Showers and 
thunderstorms are expected to remain active across the waters E 
of 85W through at least Tue night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure near 31N135W to
offshore SW Mexico, dominating the waters N of 10N and N of the
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail both N and S of
the monsoon trough across the open waters, except light to gentle
E of 110W where the pressure gradient is slightly more relaxed.
Seas are 6-8 ft from roughly 07N to 14N to the W of 120W in mixed
NE to E and NW swells. Seas are mainly 5-7 ft in mixed long
period SW and NW swells across the remainder of the open waters,
except 7-9 ft in S-SW swell S of the Equator and W of 105W.

For the forecast, the ridge will begin to weaken as the high
center drifts northward today through Tue, ahead of an
approaching weak cold front. The associated weakened pressure 
gradient will support moderate trades, fresh at times, north of 
the ITCZ to about 22N and west of 120W through Tue, with seas of
6-8 ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere during the week. New high 
pressure will begin to build across the region from the NW early 
Wed through Fri to produce fresh trade winds S of 20N and W of 
125W, with seas building 8-9 ft. Rough seas to 8 ft in southerly
swell will continue across the far southwestern waters S of 02N 
to 120W, and will gradually spread eastward in coverage to near 
100W through tonight before subsiding Tue into Wed.

$$
Lewitsky