701
AXPZ20 KNHC 011503
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jan 1 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale warning:
High pressure will build in the wake of a cold front moving
across the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between this
area of high pressure and lower pressure within the EPAC monsoon
trough will support gale force gap winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec starting Thu morning. The gale force winds will
continue through early Sat. Seas will peak near 14 ft with this
next gale force gap wind event. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more
information.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N109W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N109W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 07N to 15N between 92W and 96W, from 05N to 13N
between 99W and 112W, and from 05N to 10N between 120W and 135W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure near 32N130W to
near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between
this ridge and a trough along the west coast of Mexico is
supporting gentle to moderate winds offshore of the Baja
California peninsula and southwestern Mexico. Seas are in the 7-9
ft range west of Baja California Norte, and 6-7 ft over the
waters west of Baja California Sur as well as the open waters off
SE Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds, and seas of
1 to 3 ft, are in the Gulf of California. Fresh to strong gap
winds, and seas of 4 to 6 ft, prevail over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec.
For the forecast, gale conditions and very rough seas are
anticipated for the Tehuantepec region Thu through Sat morning.
Winds should diminish below gale force Sat afternoon but remain
strong through early Sun morning. Rough seas west of the Baja
California peninsula will decrease through Wed. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds are expected at the northern and central Gulf of
California Wed thru Thu. A new set of NW swell will bring rough
to very rough seas to the Baja California offshore waters this
weekend.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo. Light
to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to
moderate winds are S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6
ft range across the discussion waters, reaching 7 ft SW of the
Galapagos Islands.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse in
the Gulf of Papagayo through Sat, with fresh winds possible
through early next week. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will
extend downwind the Papagayo region midweek, impacting the far
southern offshore waters of Guatemala Thu through Fri. Elsewhere
north of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas will prevail through this weekend. Gentle to
moderate southerly winds and moderate seas will occur south of
the monsoon trough.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure near 32N130W to
near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between
this ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting mainly winds N of the ITCZ and W of 125W. Light to
gentle winds are elsewhere N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. S of the
ITCZ/monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are
in the 6-9 ft range .
For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds N of 10N will
diminish by Thu. The long- period NW swell will slowly subside
today. A new set of NW swell will enter the NW waters on Thu and
propagate SE across the waters through the weekend. Seas will
briefly peak around 12 ft on Fri over the northern waters W of
130W.
$$
AL