000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132118
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jul 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W from 03N northward into 
El Salvador, moving westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is 
described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W from 03N northward to 16N,
moving westward at 20 to 25 kt. Nearby convection is described 
in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 117W from 04N to 19N, moving
westward around 20 kt. Nearby convection is described in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 129W from 05N to 17N, moving
westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 139W from 05N to 17N, moving
westward around 20 kt. Nearby convection is described in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1010 mb low pressure near
10.5N77W to across Costa Rica to 08N93W to 09N100W to 10N129W.
The ITCZ extends from 10N129W to 10N139W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 77W and 91W,
from 10N to 14N between 97W and 102W, from 06.5N to 13N between
106W and 130W, and from 11N to 13.5N between 130W and 134W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate SE winds are occurring across the northern Gulf of 
California per recent ASCAT scatterometer data as troughing 
prevails over the Baja California Peninsula, and gentle south of
there. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf, except higher near the 
entrance. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the 
offshore waters of Mexico under weak ridging. Seas of 5 to 6 ft 
in mixed NW and S and are noted offshore of Baja, and seas of 5 
to 6 ft in S swell are occurring offshore of southern Mexico, 
locally to 8 ft well offshore the Gulf of Tehuantepec near some 
convection associated with a tropical wave.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh N gap winds 
will occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through midweek as high 
pressure builds over central Mexico. Winds may increase there to
fresh to strong Fri night as the pressure gradient tightens.
Farther south, moderate E winds, generated by gap winds in the 
Gulf of Papagayo, will occur well offshore of southern Mexico 
through late this week. Elsewhere, localized moderate SE to SW 
gap winds are expected in the Gulf of California into Mon. Fresh 
to strong S to SE winds will then develop over the northern Gulf 
early on Tue and continue through midweek as low pressure deepens
over the Desert Southwest. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh E gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of 
Papagayo as low pressure prevails over northern Colombia. 
Moderate to fresh E winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft also extend 
through the waters well offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala. 
South of the monsoon trough, moderate southerly winds prevail. 
Seas of 4 to 7 ft in S to SW swell prevail over the Central and 
South American waters.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Gulf 
of Papagayo, with pulsing strong winds and occasionally rough 
seas then expected later tonight through late week as high 
pressure builds over Mexico and the Gulf of America. Moderate to 
locally fresh E winds will extend through the outer waters 
offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador. Elsewhere, moderate to 
locally fresh N winds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama by midweek.
A new S to SW swell will propagate through the South American 
waters tonight, promoting rough seas offshore of Ecuador and 
Colombia through the middle of this week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1034 mb high pressure well north of the discussion waters near
42N142W extends a ridge across the waters north of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh trades are in the belt
from 10N to 18N. Moderate NE winds are also in the NW corner 
with mainly gentle winds elsewhere north of the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are south of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas are 7 
to 9 ft in advancing southerly swell across the waters south of 
04N. North of 28N, 6 to around 8 ft seas in fresh northerly 
swell are present. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and 
moderate seas will occur north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ 
this week as ridging prevails over the eastern Pacific. Locally 
rough seas will be possible north of 28N into early this 
evening. Elsewhere, occasionally fresh trade winds will generate
short-period rough seas, from 12N to 14N west of 138W, through 
the early part of the week. A new S to SW swell will propagate 
through the southern waters over the next several days, promoting
rough seas south of 05N. Looking ahead, a new N swell may lead 
to rough seas north of 25N by midweek. 

$$
Lewitsky