000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032106
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun May 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from near the Costa Rica/Panama border
to 07N94W. The ITCZ continues from 07N94W to 06N120W to beyond 
07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N to 
11N between 80W and 113W. Similar convective activity is also 
noted from 08N to 11N between 123W and 128W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A recent scatterometer pass provides observations of fresh to 
strong N winds across the Tehuantepec area. As a result, the Gale
Warning is allowed to expire at 18Z. A ridge dominates the 
offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting gentle to 
locally moderate NW to N winds with moderate seas. In the Gulf 
of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds and slight seas
are noted, except N of 30N where moderate to fresh S winds are 
observed with seas of 3 to 4 ft. Elsewhere along the Mexican 
forecast waters, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to 
gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed swells prevail.

For the forecast, the late-season gap wind event in the Tehuantepec
region, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas up to 9 ft will
last through Mon morning. Then, winds will diminish to 15 to 20 kt,
with seas of 6 to 7 ft on Mon afternoon. Otherwise, fresh to strong
S to SW winds and moderate seas are expected in the northern Gulf
of California this evening and tonight. Winds will increase to 
moderate to fresh speeds offshore Baja California beginning on 
Tue night as a stronger ridge builds there. Elsewhere, mainly 
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are expected.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds and moderate seas, primarily in SW swell 
dominate all the offshore forecast zones. Meanwhile, scattered 
moderate convection continues to develop across the region from 
Colombia to Nicaragua. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and 
higher seas are likely near thunderstorms. 

For the forecast, abundant tropical moisture and surface convergence
will persist across the offshore waters from Colombia to Nicaragua,
including the Gulf of Panama, likely through midweek, continuing
to support the development of showers and thunderstorms across 
the area. Meanwhile, fresh easterly winds are expected in the 
Papagayo region tonight through Tue, mainly during the overnight 
and early morning hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas, in primarily southerly swell, are expected through
at least midweek.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong upper-level winds are advecting abundant multilayer clouds
across the NW and N waters into Baja California Norte and NW 
Mexico. A ridge continues to dominate the forecast waters N of 
15N and W of 110W, including the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh trade winds 
mainly W of 120W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft within these winds. Recent
scatterometer and altimeter data confirmed the presence of these
wind speeds and sea heights. Elsewhere under the influence of 
the ridge, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted.

High pressure N of the area is going to tighten the pressure 
gradient north of the ITCZ. In response, trade winds north of the
ITCZ to about 18N and west of 130W are going to increase to fresh
to strong speeds tonight through Tue, also sustaining the rough 
seas. A combination of NW and southerly swells should support 
moderate seas for the remaining waters through most of the week.

$$
GR