000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100407
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Sep 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E is centered near 16.4N 116.6W at
10/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30
kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 11 ft within 120 nm N
semicircle of the low. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
noted from 14N to 18N between 112W and 117W. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 04N to 14N
between 113W and 123W. A generally westward motion is expected 
over the next couple of days. Some strengthening is forecast 
during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to 
become a tropical storm on Thursday. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Fourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 91W north of 02N through Guatemala. The
wave is moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong conveciton is from 02N to 16N between 85W and 
95W.
 
A tropical wave has its axis along 103W north of 02N. It is 
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is from 04N to 17N between 96W and 110W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N84W to 08N95W to 13N110W,
then continues SW of T.D. Fourteen-E from 12N120W to beyond 
09N140W. In addition to the convection associated with T.D.
Fourteen-E and the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted N of 04N E of 84W to the coast of 
Colombia, and from 01N to 08N W of 122W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas associated with 
the outer periphery of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E are 
affecting the Revillagigedo Islands, particularly Clarion 
Island. Fresh to strong N gap winds continue across the 
Tehuantepec region and downwind to near 14N. Moderate to locally 
rough seas are with these winds. Light to gentle winds dominate 
the offshore waters of Baja California under the influence of a 
weak ridge extending between the peninsula and the remnant low of
Marie, which is now just north of the forecast area. Gentle to 
moderate SE to S winds are evident over the northern Gulf of 
California while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across 
the remainder of the Gulf. Seas are 1 to 3 ft, highest near the 
entrance to the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in 
SW swell are present elsewhere across the Mexican offshore 
waters, with the exception of moderate to fresh winds just ahead 
the tropical wave located along 103W.

For the forecast, Fourteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm
near 16.7N 118.5W Thu morning, move to 16.8N 121.1W Thu evening,
16.8N 123.6W Fri morning, 16.7N 126.0W Fri evening, 17.0N 128.3W
Sat morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near 17.4N 129.8W Sat
evening. Fourteen-E will change little in intensity as it moves 
near 18.0N 133.2W late Sun. A trailing tropical wave is forecast 
to provide mainly moderate to fresh SE winds to the SW Mexican 
offshore waters through Thu. Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE 
gap winds will continue to pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
through early Fri. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are blowing in the Papagayo
region and downwind to 90W, with moderate to rough. Gentle to 
moderate SE to S winds are across the offshores between Ecuador 
and the Galapagos Islands along with moderate seas. Otherwise, 
moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas across
the Gulf of Papagayo region through Fri, then mainly moderate to
fresh winds and moderate seas are expected. Meanwhile, moderate 
to fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos through tonight, then diminishing some
afterward. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas in long
period SW swell are forecast elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please, see the Special Features section for more information 
about Tropical Depression Fourteen-E

The remnant low of Marie is N of area, however,fresh to strong 
SE to S winds and rough seas are still noted N of 29N between 
127W and 130W. Seas 8 ft or greater associated with this system 
cover the waters N of 27N between 125W and 135W. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over 
the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. 

For the forecast, Fourteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm
near 16.7N 118.5W Thu morning, move to 16.8N 121.1W Thu evening,
16.8N 123.6W Fri morning, 16.7N 126.0W Fri evening, 17.0N 128.3W
Sat morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near 17.4N 129.8W Sat
evening. Fourteen-E will change little in intensity as it moves 
near 18.0N 133.2W late Sun. 

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form 
several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja 
California Peninsula this weekend or early next week. Some 
gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical 
depression could form early next week while the system moves 
generally westward. This system has a medium chance of tropical 
cyclone formation through 7 days.

$$
Ramos