000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012137
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Oct 1 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Rachel is centered near 19.4N 109.5W at 01/2100 UTC,
moving west at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 950
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. 
Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak
seas are 36 ft (11 M). Numerous moderate to strong convection is
noted within 120 nm of center. Rachel is moving slowly toward 
the west, and this slow west to west-northwest motion is expected
the next couple of days. Rachel is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast the next day or so, before some gradual weakening this 
weekend. Swells generated by Rachel will affect the coast of 
west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the
end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from 
your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Remnants of Nineteen-E is centered near 15.0N 123.0W at 01/2100 
UTC, moving east at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 
1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 
kt. Peak seas are 10 ft. The remnants are moving toward the east
and this motion is expected to continue for another day or so.
The last advisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center on
this system at 2100 UTC.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Nineteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 90W N of 03N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to 
10N between 80W and 95W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to 15N97W, then resumes W
of the remnants of T.D. Nineteen-E near 12N130W to beyond 05N140W.
In addition to the convection associated with Hurricane Rachel 
and the remnants of T.D. Nineteen-E, scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection can be found from 10N to 14N between 110W and 
120W, and from 00N to 10N W of 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on 
Hurricane Rachel.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the offshore forecast waters
from Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas, and also from 17N to 20N
between 110W and 115W, including the Revillagigedo Islands. Tropical
Storm conditions are expected near the entrance to the Gulf of 
California tonight. Elsewhere, fresh to strong southerly winds 
and rough seas associated with the outer periphery of Rachel are
impacting the coastal waters of Jalisco, including the Cabo 
Corrientes area. Large swell generated by Rachel are reaching the
entrance to the Gulf of California, as well as the waters between
Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas. Moderate to fresh winds and 
rough seas are observed in the Tehuantepec region, particularly 
from 14N to 15N between 94W and 97W. Gentle to moderate NW to N 
winds are noted across the remainder of the offshore waters of 
Baja California while light to gentle winds dominate the Gulf of 
california.

For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move will move to 19.5N 
110.0W Fri morning, 19.5N 110.7W Fri afternoon, 19.6N 111.5W Sat
morning, 19.8N 112.5W Sat afternoon, 20.0N 113.5W Sun morning, 
and 20.1N 114.6W Sun afternoon. Rachel will change little in 
intensity as it moves to near 20.2N 117.3W Mon afternoon. Seas 
generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the 
offshore forecast waters of Baja California, south of Punta 
Eugenia, on Sat. Rough seas will persist over the southern Gulf 
of California, including the entrance to the Gulf. Winds and seas 
south of the Tehuantepec region will diminish early on Fri.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the
region, with locally higher winds and seas near the convective 
activity. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region  
will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters 
along with mostly moderate seas through the period. Winds and 
seas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El 
Salvador by Mon as an area of low pressure could develop late 
this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of 
Mexico. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Rachel and the remnants of Nineteen-E.

Outside of Hurricane Rachel, a ridge dominates the northern forecast
waters, mainly N of 20N and W of 116W. Under the influence of this
system, mainly light to gentle winds with moderate seas are noted.
A band-like of westerly winds is south of Rachel affecting the
waters from 12N to 15N between 106W and 119W. Scatterometer data
confirmed the presence of these wind speeds. 

For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 19.5N 110.0W Fri
morning, 19.5N 110.7W Fri afternoon, 19.6N 111.5W Sat morning, 
19.8N 112.5W Sat afternoon, 20.0N 113.5W Sun morning, and 20.1N 
114.6W Sun afternoon. Rachel will change little in intensity as 
it moves to near 20.2N 117.3W Mon afternoon. The area of fresh to
strong westerly winds S of Rachel will persist over the next 48
hours. Seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across
the forecast waters, covering roughly the area from 10N to 25N
between 100W and 120W over the next couple of days.

$$
GR