000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252212 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Oct 25 2026

Corrected Special Features section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...Corrected

Recently downgraded Tropical Storm Vance is centered near 14.9N 
104.2W, or about 270 nm WSW of Acapulco, Mexico  at 25/2100 UTC, 
moving north-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 
is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 
kt. Vertical wind shear and relatively dry mid-level air are 
negatively impacting Vance's structure. satellite imagery shows 
numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 15N to 17N 
between 103W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm 
of a line from 14N103W to 14N104W and to 14N106W. A northwestward to 
west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over 
the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north around 
the middle portion of the week. Vance is expected to produce 2 to 4 
inches of rain, with isolated higher totals of 7 inches possible, 
across Colima, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, along with western portions of 
Michoacán, Jalisco, and Durango. This rainfall may produce flooding 
and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. Swell 
generated by Vance will affect portions of the coast of southern and 
southwestern Mexico during the next several days. These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 
Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read 
the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml 
and the latest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over 
Mexico from strong high pressure ridging is currently supporting 
north to northeast winds of 25 to 30 kt in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
as seen in a recent Ascat data pass. These winds are expected to 
pulse back up to gale-force tonight, then diminish to just below 
gale-force by early Mon afternoon as the gradient slackens some. 
Resultant seas will slowly subside through Tue. Please read the 
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the southwestern Caribbean
Sea near 12N76W southwestward to across central Panama, and
continues to 08N82W to 05N93W and to 09N99W. It resumes well 
to the SW of of Vance at 08N113W to 06N123W to low pressure 
near 08N131W 1011 mb and to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is within 120 nm either side of the
trough between 93W-98W, and within 60 nm north of the trough 
between 87W-93W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm 
north of the trough between 138W-140W, and also within 60 nm
south of the trough between 128W-130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
recently downgraded Tropical Storm Vance, and on a Gale warning 
for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and  Tropical Storm Vance, winds 
are moderate or weaker as seen on recent ASCAT data passes. Seas are 
moderate away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, except 
slight in the Gulf of California away from the entrance.

For the forecast, recently downgraded Tropical Storm Vance will 
maintain intensity as it moves to near 15.0N 104.8W late tonight,
then begin to weaken as it moves to near 15.4N 105.5W Mon 
afternoon with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, to near
16.0N 106.2W late Mon night, to near 16.9N 106.6W Tue afternoon 
with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt, to near 17.7N 
107.0W late Tue night and to near 19.0N 107.2W Wed afternoon. Vance 
is forecast to become post-tropical as it moves near to near 21.0N 
107.4W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. 
Elsewhere, north to northeast near gale gap winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec are expected to pulse back up to gale-force tonight, 
then diminish to just below gale- force by early Mon afternoon as 
the gradient slackens some. Resultant seas will slowly subside 
through Tue. These winds will pulse at fresh to strong speeds 
through most of the week. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse 
nearshore Baja California Norte through Tue evening. Moderate or 
weaker winds along with moderate seas will prevail elsewhere away 
from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except mainly slight seas in 
the Gulf of California.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas are 
over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds are moderate or
weaker elsewhere with moderate seas, except slight seas nearshore
Colombia.

For the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds will pulse tonight 
in the Papagayo region and again on Wed night, then be at gentle to 
moderate speeds during the rest of the period. Otherwise, moderate 
or weaker winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features section above for information on recently 
downgraded Tropical Storm Vance.

High pressure covers the area generally north of about 18N and 
west of 120W. Latest Ascat data passes captured an area of 
fresh northeast trades from 14N to 19N between 120W and 130W.
Seas with these winds are about 5 to 6 ft. Winds are mainly 
moderate or weaker elsewhere over this part of the discussion 
area along with mostly moderate seas per latest altimeter data 
passes.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance will maintain intensity as it 
moves to near 15.0N 104.8W late tonight, then begin to weaken as it 
moves to near 15.4N 105.5W Mon afternoon with maximum sustained 
winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, to near 16.0N 106.2W late Mon night, to 
near 16.9N 106.6W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained winds 45 kt 
gusts 55 kt, to near 17.7N 107.0W late Tue night and to near 19.0N 
107.2W Wed afternoon. Vance is forecast to become post- tropical as 
it moves near to near 21.0N 107.4W Thu afternoon with maximum 
sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas will persist into around the middle part of 
the week. Swell generated from a frontal system just northwest of 
the discussion waters is expected to usher in rough seas to the SE 
of 30N140W beginning tonight along with fresh southeast to south 
winds over the far NW portion of the area. A tightening pressure 
gradient related to the frontal system will boost these winds to 
fresh to strong speeds on Tue, over the waters roughly north of 
about 28N and west of 138W. Seas of 7 to 9 ft are expected with 
these winds. Looking ahead, a new set of southerly swell is expected 
to spread into the south-central waters starting late on Mon, 
building seas to a rough state over the waters south of about 05N 
between 105W and 130W by late Wed night. These seas are expected to 
linger through at least Thu night.

$$
Aguirre