000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210356
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu May 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 96W from off the Gulf of Tehuantepec  
southward, and moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 91W and 101W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N94W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N100W to 08N116W and from 07N125W to beyond
05N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is active from
03N to 09N east of 90W, including the offshore waters of Costa 
Rica, Panama, and Colombia, and from 05N to 13N between 108W and 
115W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N between 
101W and 108W and from 06N to 10N W of 133W


...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A modest surface ridge near 128W is supporting gentle to locally
moderate NW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft west of Baja California
and near the Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle winds with 1
to 3 ft seas are present in the Gulf of California. Mainly gentle
winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for
the offshore waters of central and southern Mexico.

For the forecast, a modest surface ridge near 125W will support 
gentle to locally moderate NW winds with moderate seas west of 
Baja California and near the Revillagigedo Islands through the 
weekend. Locally fresh winds during the late afternoon and 
evening hours are likely near the coast of Cabo San Lucas through
this weekend, and off Cabo Corrientes this weekend. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds with 5 to 7 ft seas exist
in the Papagayo region waters. Easterly fresh E winds with seas
at 5 to 6 ft persist across the southern waters of Guatemala and 
El Salvador. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas
are noted for the remaining offshore waters in central America.
Gentle to moderate S to SW winds with seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed
moderate swells dominate waters off Colombia and Ecuador, and 
near the Galapagos Islands. Refer to the Intertropical 
Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the 
region.

For the forecast, gap winds will pulse to strong tonight, then 
fresh Thu night, in the Papagayo region. Fresh to strong winds 
will return Sun night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along 
with moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the 
end of the week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak 1014 mb low near 26N119W is triggering patchy showers from
23N to 25N between 118W and 124W. Farther south, another 1009 mb
low and related surface trough is generating scattered moderate 
convection from 04N to 12N between 117W and 124W. Refer to the
Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section for
additional convection in the East Pacific Basin. 

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1035 mb high 
near 37N144W across 30N140W to just southwest of the 
Revillagigedo Islands. This feature is maintaining moderate to
fresh NE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft north of the ITCZ and west
of 118W. Gentle to moderate N to NE to E winds with 6 to 8 ft in
mixed NW and S swells exist north of the ITCZ east of 118W. South
of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate S to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7
ft in moderate southerly swell prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will continue to 
gradually weaken while shifting southwestward through the end of
the week. This will allow winds and seas north of the ITCZ to 
subside to between gentle to moderate, and 5 to 6 ft by this 
weekend. Winds south of the ITCZ will also becoming gentle by 
Fri with seas remaining at 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell.

$$
Konarik