147 
AXPZ20 KNHC 112119
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jul 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 91W, and extends northward
across western Guatemala and SE Mexico moving westward at around
20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 
07N to 13N between 88W and 97W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 129W from 07N to 17N, moving
westward at 10 kt. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted from 08N to 14N between 127W and 131W. Moderate to strong
SE to S winds are on the east side of the wave axis likely associated
with the convective activity there. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1008 mb low pressure located over
northern Colombia near 10N75W to 07N80W to 10N90W to 07N100W to 
10N109W. The ITCZ stretches from 11N131W to beyond 07N140W. Aside
from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 02N to 12N E
of 90W to the coast of Colombia, from 07N to 16N between 115W and
120W, and from 05N to 09N W of 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California supporting light to gentle winds based on recent 
scatterometer data. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are 
observed over most of the Gulf of California between the ridge to
the west and a meandering surface trough over the Gulf of 
California. Seas are 1 to 3 ft S of 30N and 3 to 5 ft N of 30N.
Seas of 3 to 4 ft are near the entrance to the Gulf. A surface 
trough moving across the Bay of Campeche and an approaching 
tropical wave are helping to induce fresh to strong northerly gap
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere. Seas are generally moderate, primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California through the middle of next week
producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds along with moderate 
seas in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate
winds and mainly slight seas will prevail through the middle of 
next week. Pulses of fresh to strong winds will persist in the 
Tehuantepec region through early next week. Otherwise, a broad 
area of low pressure is located several hundred miles south of 
the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by midweek next week while the 
system moves generally west-northwestward. The tightening 
pressure gradient across the area may induce at least fresh to 
strong winds and rough to very rough seas across the offshore 
waters of SW Mexico starting late Sun or Sun night.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of gentle
to moderate winds across the Papagayo region. Similar wind speeds
are also noted in the Gulf of Fonseca area. Moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas in SW prevail elsewhere. Abundant
cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms are noted
across the offshore waters from Colombia to Guatemala. Winds and
seas could be higher near thunderstorms.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail in the 
Papagayo region through the middle of next week with moderate to
rough seas. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas may impact the 
waters offshore El Salvador and Guatemala Sun through Mon night 
as a broad area of low pressure persists several hundred miles 
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere,
except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are
expected. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge prevails across the waters N of 18N W of 110W. Under the
influence of the ridge, light to gentle winds are noted N of 20N
and E of 130W while gentle to moderate NE winds dominate the 
waters N of 10N W of 130W. A couple of tropical waves are moving 
westward across the waters S of 20N. A surface trough is analyzed
from 17N114W to 09N120W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is near the trough axis, which is well defined on 
scatterometer data. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along 
with moderate seas. 

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is located several
hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by mid-next week while
the system moves generally west-northwestward. The latest Tropical
Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone
formation in the next 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days.
In addition, showers and thunderstorms have increased during the
past several hours in association with a trough of low pressure 
located well southwest of the Baja California peninsula. Some 
slow development of this system is possible over the next couple 
of days. By the middle of next week, environmental conditions are
expected to become less conducive for development while it moves
slowly west- northwestward.

$$
GR