466 
AXPZ20 KNHC 142231
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu May 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough axis extends southwestward from western Panama 
to 05N90W. An ITCZ extends westward from 05N90W to 07N127W, then
resumes W of a surface trough from 05N132W to beyond 04N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near 
and south of the monsoon trough from 03N to 10N and east of 90W,
including the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and 
Colombia. Similar convection is found north of the ITCZ from 06N 
to 09N between 90W and 104W, including the offshore waters
Nicaragua. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted near
the ITCZ from 03N to 08N west of 131W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge to the west is supporting gentle to moderate N to 
NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters west 
of Baja California and near the Revillagigedo Islands. A modest
surface trough extending southward from southwestern Arizona 
across the Gulf of California is maintaining gentle to moderate 
SW to NW winds with 2 to 4 ft seas in the Gulf. At the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, fresh to locally strong northerly gap winds and 
seas at 5 to 8 ft exist. Light to gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft 
seas in mixed swells prevail for the offshore waters of central 
Mexico, and the rest of southern Mexico. A weak upper-level
trough is inducing isolated thunderstorms in the offshore waters
of Oaxaca State, Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds and rough 
seas will persist at the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri morning.
Moderate to fresh W to SW gap winds in the northern Gulf of 
California are expected to pulse to strong during the nighttime 
hours this weekend. Moderate to fresh NW winds across the 
offshore waters of Baja California are expected through Mon, 
except becoming fresh to strong west of Baja Norte along with 
very rough seas in large NW swell Sat through Sun evening, due to
a strengthening high pressure to the northwest. This swell 
should spread southward and produce moderate to rough seas near 
Baja Sur and near the Revillagigedo Islands by late Sat. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough
section at the beginning for convection in the region. Latest 
satellite scatterometer data reveal moderate fo fresh easterly 
gap winds and 6 to 8 ft seas extend offshore of southern 
Nicaragua and the Papagayo region to 90W. Gentle to moderate 
northerly winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are present in the Gulf of 
Panama. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed 
moderate swells exist for the remainder central America offshore 
waters. For the waters west of Colombia and Ecuador, and near 
the Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate southerly winds and 4 
to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse to strong with locally 
rough seas during nighttime hours offshore of the Papagayo region
through early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through early next
week. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds will pulse across 
the Gulf of Panama to the Azuero Peninsula at night, tonight and
Fri night. Scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms 
across the offshore waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica 
will persist through Sat.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge stretches southeastward from a 1036 mb 
high north of the Hawaiian Islands across 30N140W to southeast 
of the Revillagigedo Islands, and dominates the waters N of the 
ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the ridging and lower 
pressure associated with the ITCZ, including an embedded surface 
trough from 10N128W to 05N130W, supports moderate to fresh NE to
E trades with 6 to 8 ft seas across most of the waters N of the 
ITCZ and W of 125W. Numerous heavy showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are evident near the surface trough from 02N to 11N
between 122W and 131W. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas
of 6 to 7 ft are noted north of the ITCZ east of 125W. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate 
swells are south near and south of the ITCZ. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned 1036 mb high will continue 
to strenghten and spread moderate to fresh N to NE winds to east
of 125W by Sun. As the high weakens nearly next week, these winds
should gradually subside. Seas north of 23N and east of 133W 
will begin to build late Fri in large NW swell and reach 10 to 
14 ft by Sun. Starting Mon evening, decreasing NW swell should
allow seas to gradually drop through midweek next week.

$$

Chan