000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161612
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat May 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends west-southwestward from central Costa
Rica to 06N100W. An ITCZ continues westward from 06N100W across 
09N124W to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection is seen within Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica
offshore waters from 03N to 06N west of 83W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection from 03N to 08N between 83W and
105W, and from 03N to 11N west of 113W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between a broad area of high pressure 
west of Baja California and relatively lower pressure associated
to the thermal trough over Baja California is generally sustaining
mostly fresh northwest winds over the offshore waters of Baja 
California. A set of large northwest swell has recently starting
to cross 30N between 117W and 125W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft north of
Punta Eugenia, and 5 to 7 ft from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro.

In the Gulf of California, the gradient there is maintaining
moderate west to northwest winds, except for moderate to fresh 
south to southwest winds in the northern portion of the Gulf. 
Seas are 3 to 4 ft in the Gulf as noted in an overnight altimeter
satellite data pass, except for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in 
long-period southwest swell at the entrance to the gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh south to southwest gap winds
in the northern portion of the Gulf of California are expected 
to pulse to fresh to strong speeds tonight and Sun night, with 
winds reaching near gale-force Sun night. Mostly fresh northwest 
winds over the offshore waters of Baja California will continue 
through Mon morning, except increase to fresh to strong speeds 
west of Baja California Norte tonight into Sun due to a 
tightening of the pressure gradient as strong high pressure north
of the area shifts eastward. Large northwest swell will induce 
rough to very rough seas offshore Baja California Norte through 
Mon night, and rough seas offshore Baja California Sur Sat 
through Tue. 
 
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

An overnight Ascat satellite data pass indicates fresh northeast
to east winds just northwest of the Gulf of Papagayo region. 
Seas with these winds are 4 to 6 ft. Ascat satellite data passes 
indicate mostly light to gentle south to southwest winds south of 
the monsoon trough. Seas over this part of the are 3 to 5 ft in long-
period south to southwest swell per various altimeter satellite data 
passes.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse during 
the night time hours offshore of the Papagayo region through the 
period. Rough seas will accompany these winds. Moderate to fresh 
north to northeast winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama 
tonight and Sat night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through early next 
week. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected 
over the offshore waters of Colombia, and mostly over the outer 
offshore waters of Panama and Costa Rica.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge stretches southeastward from a strong 1034 mb high 
pressure center that is located well north of the discussion area 
near 39N140W southeastward to near 17N113W. This feature continues 
to drive the general wind pattern north of the ITCZ, with moderate 
to fresh trades covering just about the entire area north of 08N and 
west of 122W. Seas over these areas are 7 to 9 ft in mixed northeast 
and northwest swell. Fresh northwest to north winds are over the 
northeast part of the area north of about 29N and east of 130W. Seas 
with these winds are 8 to 10 ft in northwest swell. The overnight 
Ascat satellite data passes show gentle to moderate east to 
southeast winds south of the ITCZ. Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 
ft in long-perod southeast to south swell mixed with northeast 
swell.  

For the forecast, the aforementioned strong high pressure will 
shift slightly eastward through Mon late Sat leading to a tightening
of the pressure gradient over the waters north of 27N between 
120W and 130W. This will bring fresh to strong northwest to north
winds for this area during the weekend. Associated long-period, 
large north swell is forecast to raise seas over the waters 
west of Baja California Norte to near 130W to the range of 
11 to 17 ft Sun and Sun night, and from 9 to 14 ft from Punta 
Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro. A trough, with possible weak low 
pressure along it, should develop offshore southern California 
and extreme northern Baja California early next week breaking 
down the described tight pressure gradient, thus allowing for
the fresh to strong winds over the northeast part of the area to
drop-off quite significantly. The swell will gradually decay going 
into the middle part of the week, with seas lowering to just
below 8 ft.

$$

Chan