000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291550
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Oct 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Vance is centered near 21.6N 108.8W at 29/1500
UTC, moving north at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Peak seas are currently around 14-15 ft. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is occurring from 20N-25N east of
115W. The motion to the north is expected to continue until 
Vance dissipates tonight or early Friday. Weakening is forecast,
and Vance is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low 
later today. Swells generated by Vance will affect coastal 
portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the 
southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula, during the 
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from 
your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from coastal Costa Rica near 10N83W
to 03N100W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 02S-07N east of 83W and south of
10N west of 118W. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring
from 03N-07N between 95W-115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
recently Tropical Storm Vance between Cabo Corrientes and the 
entrance to the Gulf of California and the southern tip of Baja 
California Sur.

Aside from Vance, fresh to moderate N to NE gap winds are
occurring over the Gulf of California with seas 8-9 ft.
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with 5-7 ft over the
Pacific waters, 1-2 ft over the N and central Gulf of California,
and 3-7 ft over the S Gulf of California.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance will weaken to a remnant 
low near 22.9N 108.5W at the entrance to the Gulf of California 
this evening, and dissipate Fri morning. Fresh to locally strong 
N gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through 
early next week. A developing extratropical cyclone should move 
into the waters west of the Baja California peninsula and over 
the N Gulf of California Sat night into Sun with fresh to locally
strong SE to SW winds. Looking ahead, fresh NW winds should 
occur over the Gulf of California on Mon in the wake of the 
extratropical cyclone.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Papagayo
region and fresh N winds are observed over the Gulf of Panama.
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 4-6 ft. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 
02S-07N east of 83W.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds over
the Gulf of Papagayo region should continue through early next 
week. Fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama should continue 
through Fri before weakening. Large long-period SW swell will 
reach the equatorial waters Fri before diminishing on Sun.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between weak ridging north of our waters 
and lower pressure over the monsoon trough is forcing only
moderate or weaker trades across the forecast waters. Large
long-period SW swell is reaching northward across the equator to
05N between 100W-120W. Elsewhere seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, an extratropical cyclone will form near 28N137W
by tomorrow morning and move slowly eastward. By Fri night, fresh
to strong S to SW winds will develop south of a warm front and
fresh to strong N to NE winds should occur north of a cold front.
The system should move over the offshore zones west of the Baja
California peninsula on Sun with winds and seas diminishing by
Sun night.

$$
Landsea