000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250910
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jun 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W, south of 16N, moving 
west around 20 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong 
convection is occurring from 10N-16N between 95W-105W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 106W, south of 17N, moving 
westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Convection is described below in
the ITCZ/Monsoon trough section. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 120W, south of 20N, moving 
westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Convection is described below in
the ITCZ/Monsoon trough section. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 13N115W to 10N125W. 
The ITCZ extends from 10N125W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 03N-07N between 75W-105W,
and from 08N-18N between 110-120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure difference between lower pressure in the deep
tropics and higher pressure north of the area is supporting fresh
to strong gap winds and rough seas across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 
5-6 ft in S to SW swell for Pacific waters and 1-3 ft over the 
Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, the low pressure over the deep tropics will be
inducing fresh to strong N to NE gap winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through Fri. Also, expect fresh winds and locally 
rough seas off Oaxaca and Guerrero Thu night. Elsewhere, winds 
and seas across the Mexican Offshores should be quiescent. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed NE to E gap winds
across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region as far west
as 95W. A concurrent altimeter satellite pass showed 7-8 ft 
seas. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 4-7 ft 
in S to SW swell.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the area and the NE Pacific monsoon trough is supporting
a Gulf of Papagayo region gap wind event. Fresh to strong NE to 
E winds should last into early next week. Elsewhere, winds should
remain quiescent. Large S swell moving into the equatorial 
waters tonight will continue through the weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad high pressure covers the waters north of 15N, anchored by
1032 mb near 37N145W. A weakening 1008 mb low pressure (EP94) is
centered near 18N120W, along a tropical wave. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong NE
winds within 90 nm in the northwest quadrant of this low. Fresh 
trade winds and 6-8 ft seas are noted from 10N to 20N elsewhere 
west of 120W. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4-6 ft seas are 
noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the low known as EP94 near 18N120W will weaken
to trough through today, but continue to support fresh to strong
winds and occasional rough seas as it moves westward through Sun.
Elsewhere, another low pressure system is likely to form this 
weekend or early next week south of the Revillagigedo Islands. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form by the early 
to middle part of next week as the system moves westward to west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Tropical cyclone formation chance 
is near 0 percent through 48 hours, but is high...70 
percent...through 7 days. Elsewhere, large seas due to mixed SW 
and SE swell will be moving across our southern border tonight 
through the weekend. 8 ft seas should reach up to 02N before 
diminishing.

$$
Christensen