000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072132
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jun 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Amanda is centered near 11.3N 135.7W at 2100
UTC, moving west-southwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts
to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently near 3 m, or 10 ft, within 45 
nm across the western semicircle. Widely scattered moderate 
convection is occurring within 120 nm across the NE semicircle 
of center. A continued west-southwest motion is expected for the
next few days as Amanda becomes a remnant low late this evening.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Amanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Offshore Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
Tropical Depression TWO-E is located near 15.7N 99.7W, moving
toward the NE at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.
Peak seas are near 3.5 m or 11.5 ft, across southern portions of
the circulation. Numerous bands of moderate to strong convection
surround this large circulation within 270 nm, and extend inland
along the coasts of Guerrero and Oaxaca. T.D. TWO-E is expected
to move slowly northward and to the Mexican coastline through Mon
and then slowly inland. Some strengthening is likely, and this
system is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. However
the broad circulation of this system may make any rapid
intensification difficult. Heavy rainfall associated with this
system will impact portions of southern Mexico during the next
few days, and likely produce like threatening flooding and
mudslides. Large cross-equatorial SW swell will enter the area
waters tonight through Mon and combine with the large wind
generated waves from TWO-E to create extremely rough and 
dangerous seas in the coastal zone. Refer to the latest NHC 
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for updates.

Offshore of Central America:
Scattered to numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms associated
with an elongated area of low pressure along the monsoon trough
offshore of Central America continues today, from western 
Colombia to the offshore waters south of Guatemala. Fresh to 
strong monsoonal westerly winds are increasing to the south of 
this system, and S of 11N. Environmental conditions remains 
conducive for development and a tropical depression is likely to 
form during the next day or two, while the system moves slowly 
northward toward the coast of Central America. Interests along 
the Pacific coasts of northwestern Costa Rica, Nicaragua, 
Honduras, and El Salvador should monitor the progress of this 
system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and life- 
threatening flash flooding are possible across portions of Costa 
Rica, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Guatemala through early next 
week. Currently, this system has a high chance of tropical 
cyclone formation in the next 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC 
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for updates.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from 10.5N74.5W to 1008 mb low pres near 
10.5N88.5W to 13.5N95W, then resumes from 12N106W to 05N116W to 
09N130W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is 
noted from 01N to 13N E of 91W, and from 06.5N to 11.5N between
104W and 117W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection 
is noted from 07N to 17.5N between 91W and 104W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge extends from a 1032 mb high northeast of the 
Hawaiian Islands near 34N149W southeastward to west of the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Broad low pressure extends from southern 
California south-southwestward across the Baja Norte waters. 
This pattern is producing gentle NW winds with 6 to 7 ft seas in
mixed NW and SW swell across the Baja California waters to the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate N winds and seas 7 to 9 ft in N 
swell prevail across the outer waters of Baja Norte, generally N
trough W of Isla Guadalupe. Fresh to locally strong NW to W 
winds with locally higher seas are present near the coast south 
of Cabo San Lucas. Tropical Depression TWO-E is offshore of 
Acapulco, located near 15.7N99.7W aT 2100 UTC, moving NE at 3 kt,
and remains embedded within a broad and larger cyclonic 
circulation offshore of southern Mexico. This system is producing
fresh to strong SW to W monsoonal winds with 8 to 12 ft seas in 
large SW swell across the outer offshore waters S through SE of
TWO-E. Also part of this broad cyclonic circulation, moderate to
fresh NW winds extend from near Cabo Corrientes to the western
flanks of TWO-E. The entire area E of 104W and Michoacan is 
dominated by numerous bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms.

For the forecast, T.D. TWO-E and the associated broad cyclonic
circulation it is embedded within will shift northward toward 
the coast tonight, with the T.D. strengthening to a tropical
storm, and then move inland on Mon, bringing with it very heavy 
rainfall and associated tropical storm force winds. Large cross-
equatorial SW swell will move into the regional waters tonight
through Mon and combine with rough wind driven seas from the
tropical storm to produce dangerous marine conditions across the
waters of Guerrero. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge will 
sustain gentle to moderate NW winds across the Baja Norte waters
through Mon evening, and across the Baja Sur to Revillagigedo 
Islands through Tue evening before weakening. Moderate to fresh 
NW to N winds and moderate to rough seas will prevail across the
far outer waters of Baja Norte through early Wed. Large, cross
equatorial S-SW swell will merge across the southwestern Mexico 
waters late tonight through Tue, and across the Baja waters Mon
through Tue night. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Clusters of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
prevail across most of the near and offshore waters of Central 
America and southeast Mexico, and are associated with an active 
monsoon trough, and a developing area of low pressure along 88.5W.
Please, see the Special Features section for more details.

A weak surface pressure pattern continues N of the region, which
is allow the eastern Pacific monsoonal circulation to dominate 
the region. Recent satellite data indicates that a weak low 
pressure center has develop along the monsoon trough near 88.5W,
while the monsoon trough has lifted to near 11N-12N. Fresh to
locally strong SW to W winds prevail across most of the area 
south of the trough and to the W of Costa Rica. Gentle to 
moderate winds are generally N of the trough. Seas of 7 to 10 ft
in SW swell dominate the offshore waters of Central America W of
84W, and are 5 to 7 ft E of 84W. New cross-equatorial SW swell 
has begun to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands, producing seas of 7 to 10 ft.

For the forecast, new large SW swell will surge across the 
Central America offshore waters today through early Tue. As a 
result, moderate seas will quickly become rough by this evening, 
and then very rough by Mon morning, building to around 11 ft
between Ecuador and the Galapagos. At the same time, convergent 
monsoonal winds will generate periods of heavy showers and strong
thunderstorms across the regional offshore waters at least into 
early next week. Low pressure south of El Salvador will 
gradually strengthen the monsoonal SW to W winds across the 
offshore waters of Central America tonight through Mon night, 
leading to fresh to strong SW to W winds tonight, becoming 
strong to near-gale while expanding northward on Mon. Environmental
conditions are conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day 
or two while the system moves slowly northward toward the coast 
of Central America. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on  
Tropical Depression Amanda located across the Tropical Pacific W 
of 130W.

A broad ridge extends from a 1032 mb high northeast of the 
Hawaiian Islands near 34N149W southeastward to west of the 
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient south and southeast
of the ridge is producing moderate to fresh NE to E winds with 6
to 8 ft seas across the waters north of 12N and W of 130W, 
except seas are reaching to 10 ft near Amanda. Moderate to fresh
N to NE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are found north of 23N 
between 120W and 130W. Mainly gentle winds with seas at 6 to 9 
ft in mixed N and S swell prevail across the remaining waters 
north of the monsoon trough and east of 130W. South of the 
monsoon trough and west of 115W, gentle to moderate SE to SW 
winds and 7 to 10 ft seas in large S-SW swell prevail. Fresh to 
strong SW to W monsoonal winds and 9 to 14 ft seas in new SW 
swell are moving into the waters south of the monsoon trough to 
beyond the Equator and east of 115W. Gentle to moderate SE 
winds and seas of 9 to 12 ft in SW swell prevail the rest of the 
waters south of the Equator.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will meander
about and weaken slightly across the area through Tue as the
remnant low of Amanda tracks southwestward over the western 
portion of the area, resulting in gradually diminishing winds 
across the trade wind zone. Large S to SW has crossed the 
equator this morning and will continue northward through the 
regional waters through early next week, reaching to 20N tonight 
through Mon. Northerly swell in the north-central waters will 
produce seas of 7 to 10 ft for the next several days. Fresh to 
strong monsoonal SW to W winds should gradually shift northward 
tonight through Mon evening. Seas S of 20N and E of 120W will
peak at 10 to 13 ft seas tonight through Mon night before 
gradually subsiding Tue through Wed.
 
$$
Stripling