184 
AXPZ20 KNHC 051538
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Mar 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N82W to 07N90W to 02N100W TO
03N110W. The ITCZ continues from 03N110W to 05N130W to beyond 
04N140W. Convection is limited.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure of 1036 mb located well NW of the area near
38N138W extends a ridge southeastward toward Baja California Sur
and the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between 
this ridge and a surface trough over NW Mexico is producing 
moderate to fresh NW to N winds offshore the Baja California 
waters per latest scatterometer data. Seas are 4 to 6 ft within
these winds, except 6 to 9 ft in NW swell across the outer
offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia. Light winds prevail across 
the Gulf of California where seas are slight. Elsewhere to the 
east, a weak pressure gradient is leading to mainly gentle winds 
across the waters, except fresh to strong N winds in the 
immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec. Mainly moderate seas prevail 
offshore southern and SW Mexico, as well as across the remainder 
of the waters.

For the forecast, high pressure well NW of the area will build
modestly over the Baja California waters through early Fri and
will tighten the pressure gradient there, bringing fresh to 
strong NW winds during that time. Associated rough seas in 
northerly swell will persist off Baja California Norte into the 
weekend. Weak low pressure is expected to form just offshore 
Baja California Norte Fri through Sat, then shift slowly eastward
into early next week. This will push the strong NW winds 
offshore and W of 120W, and will relax the pressure gradient over
the offshore waters of Baja California, leading to improving 
marine conditions through the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds 
are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the forecast period. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are across the Papagayo 
region, with moderate to locally fresh N gap winds across the 
Gulf of Panama. Seas are 5 to 7 ft downwind of Papagayo and 3 to
5 ft downwind of the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, winds are light 
to gentle with slight to moderate seas of 5 ft or less in SW 
swell. 

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected in 
the Papagayo region through the weekend and into early next week
as high pressure remains N of the region. Moderate gap winds 
across the Gulf of Panama will pulse to locally fresh at night, 
otherwise mainly light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere 
through the weekend. Looking ahead, significant cross-equatorial
SW swell is expected to reach the waters offshore Ecuador to the
Galapagos Islands by Mon of next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure centered NW of the region near 38N138W is 
dominating much of the forecast waters W of 110W. The pressure 
gradient between this building ridge and the ITCZ is leading to 
fresh to strong trades from roughly N of 10N and W of 120W. Seas
of 8 to 12 ft are within these winds, with the highest seas N of
27N between 120W and 130W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or 
weaker. Seas through the remainder of the open waters are 4 to 7 
ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, high pressure will build southward over the
area into late week, tightening the pressure gradient and 
supporting the area of fresh to strong winds N of the ITCZ to 
the W of 120W. Rough seas are expected to accompany these winds, 
continuing into the weekend. Looking ahead, low pressure is 
forecast to develop and linger near Baja California Norte Fri 
through Sat, then drift slowly eastward into early next week. 
This is expected to weaken the pressure gradient and gradually 
improve marine conditions across the regional waters Sat through
Mon. 

$$
GR