000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131607
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Oct 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Simon is centered near 20.3N 107.3W at 1500 UTC, 
moving west at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. 
Peak seas are near 22 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection
is within 45 nm of the center. Scattered to numerous moderate 
and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 18.5N to 21N 
between 109W and 109W. Simon is located further south than
estimated overnight, and is now expected to move slowly W to SW
through Thu before beginning a northward motion. Simon could 
approach the coast of western Mexico this weekend. Interests 
in west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur should 
continue to closely monitor the latest updates to Simon's forecast. 
Changes to watches and warnings could be required later today based 
on the latest forecast trends. Associated heavy rainfall will 
produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides or worsen any 
on- going flooding, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells 
generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of 
southwestern and west- central Mexico during the next few days, 
as well as the southern Gulf of California. These swells are 
likely to cause large and powerful surf and life- threatening rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local 
weather office.

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E has formed this morning several
hundred miles south of Oaxaca, Mexico, near 09.8N 96.5W at 1500 
UTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Peak seas are estimated at 12 ft across the N semicircle. 
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring 
from 09N to 13.5N between 92W and 99W. A west-northwestward to 
northwestward motion should continue over the next 36 hours, then
a decrease in forward speed is expected after 48 hours. Tropical
Depression 21-E could potentially be very close to the coast of 
Mexico as a hurricane over the weekend. Extremely favorable 
oceanic and atmospheric conditions are forecast for at least the 
next 3 to 4 days, and steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, 
with a major hurricane possible by Sat. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Simon and T.D. Twenty-One-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public 
Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N75.5W to 08N81W to T.D.
Twenty-One-E near near 09.8N 96.5W to 05.5N107W. The ITCZ 
extends from 05.5N107W to 03.5N121W to beyond 06.5N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01.5N
to 09N E of 89W, and from 02.5N to 06.5N between 93W and 97W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to  
06N between 101W and 128W and from 05.5N to 09.5N W of 139W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on 
Hurricane Simon, and newly formed Tropical Depression Twenty-
One-E.

Aside from conditions associated with Simon, which is small in
size, mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail across the waters
between 20N and a stationary front extending from central Baja 
10 22N120W. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are within 
150 nm N of the front over the Baja offshore waters, with fresh 
winds on either side of the front in the far northern Gulf of 
California. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in NW swell across the Pacific 
water behind the front and 3 to 5 ft in the northern Gulf. 
Elsewhere, fresh northerly winds are funneling through the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec in response to Tropical Depression Twenty- One-E. 
Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate to rough seas in merging 
SW and NW swell dominate the remainder of the discussion waters.

For the forecast, Hurricane Simon is near 20.3N 107.3W at 8 AM, 
moving west at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. 
Simon will move slowly W to SW through Thu, reaching near 20.3N 
107.8W Wed morning, near 20.1N 107.7W Thu morning, then begin to 
move northward, reaching near 21.0N 107.8W Thu afternoon, near 
22.8N 108.2W Fri morning, near 25.2N 109.6W Sat morning and then 
inland near 28.5N 110.5W by Sun morning. A stationary front 
drifting across the northern waters will gradually dissipate 
late today. Rough seas in NW swell west of Baja California will 
gradually diminish through early Wed. Elsewhere, Tropical 
Depression Twenty-One-E has formed near 09.8N 96.5W at 8 AM, 
moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb.
Maximum sustained wind is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. A west- 
northwest to northwestward motion should continue over the next 
36 hours, then a decrease in forward speed is expected after 48 
hours. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, with a major 
hurricane offshore of SW Mexico possible by Sat. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Easterly gap winds downstream of the Papagayo region have
diminished to moderate in recent hours, as newly formed Tropical 
Depression Twenty-One-E is passing S of Tehuantepec along about
10N. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas to 10 ft are found
across the NE semicircle of Twenty-One-E, and dominate the outer
offshore waters to the southwest of Guatemala and El Salvador.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms also prevail
across these outer waters. Gentle to moderate winds, and 
moderate to locally rough seas, prevail over the remainder of the
offshore waters. Scattered moderate convection continues this
morning across the waters of Panama and Colombia E of 82W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas, associated 
with Twenty-One-E, well offshore Guatemala and El Salvador will 
decrease through Wed as it moves further from the area and
intensifies. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will support 
moderate or lighter winds, and moderate seas dominated by SW 
swell across much of the forecast waters through the end of the 
week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain
active across the waters E of 85W today. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A stationary front extends across the NE waters from Baja 
California Norte to 20N125W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and
rough seas of 7 to 10 ft in NW swell cover the waters N of 20N
behind the front. Light to gentle winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in
merging NW and SW swell generally prevail elsewhere S of 20N W 
of 120W, except for moderate SE to S winds near the equator.

For the forecast, the stationary front will gradually dissipate 
through this evening. Large SW swell will affect the waters S of
the Equator and west of 105W over the next couple of days, 
followed by another pulse of large S-SW swell arriving into the 
waters W of 100W Wed night.

$$
Stripling