000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040202
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon May 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 10N85W to 07N95W to 09N91W. The 
ITCZ continues from 09N91W to 08N120W to beyond 06.5N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N 
to 12N between 106W and 127W. Scattered moderate convection is 
occurring from 05N to 08.5N between 86W and 88W, from 03N to 07N 
between 108W and 115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to near gale-force northerly wind are in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec along with 6-9 ft seas. Fresh to strong S-SW winds
are in the northern Gulf of California due to a locally tight
pressure gradient where seas are up to 5 ft. Seas are 3 ft or
less across the remainder of the Gulf of California. Mainly 
light to gentle winds dominate the remainder of the waters along 
with 4-6 ft seas in NW swell.

For the forecast, the late-season gap wind event in the 
Tehuantepec region, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas up 
to 9 ft will last through Mon morning. Then, winds will diminish 
to 15 to 20 kt, with seas of 6 to 7 ft on Mon afternoon. 
Otherwise, fresh to strong S to SW winds and moderate seas are 
expected in the northern Gulf of California tonight, and again 
Mon night. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds 
offshore Baja California beginning on Tue night as a stronger 
ridge builds there. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds 
and moderate seas are expected.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds and moderate seas, primarily in S-SW swell
dominate all the offshore forecast zones. Convection impacting
portions of the offshore waters is described above.

For the forecast, abundant tropical moisture and surface 
convergence will persist across the offshore waters from Colombia
to Nicaragua, including the Gulf of Panama, likely through 
midweek, continuing to support the development of showers and 
thunderstorms across the area. Meanwhile, fresh easterly winds 
are expected in the Papagayo region tonight through Tue, mainly 
during the overnight and early morning hours. Similar winds may 
return Thu night into the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas, in primarily southerly swell, 
are expected through the week. Looking ahead, a set of SW swell 
may build seas to locally rough south of the Galapagos Islands 
Fri night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong upper-level winds are advecting abundant multilayer clouds
across the NW and N waters into Baja California Norte and NW 
Mexico. A ridge continues to dominate the forecast waters north 
of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh 
trade winds north of the ITCZ to 18N between 115W and 140W. Seas
are 6-9 ft there. Elsewhere under the influence of the ridge, 
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted.

High pressure north of the area is going to tighten the pressure
gradient north of the ITCZ. In response, trade winds north of 
the ITCZ to about 18N and west of 130W are going to increase to 
fresh to strong speeds tonight through Tue night, also 
sustaining the rough seas. A combination of NW and southerly 
swells should support moderate seas for the remaining waters 
through most of the week.

$$
Lewitsky