258 
AXPZ20 KNHC 181605
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Apr 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from northwest Colombia southwestward 
to 07N77W to 08N86W to 05N100W to 05N110W, where it transitions 
to the ITCZ and continues to 06N121W to 05N131W and to beyond
05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 118W-125W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 02N to 06N between 85W-92W, and 
within 30 nm south of the ITCZ between 132W-136W. A second 
ITCZ extends from 01S88W to 01S110W to 02S120W to 03S130W
and to 02S140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 
180 nm north of the ITCZ between 90W-104W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 32N133W, with a ridge 
axis extending southeastward to 28N127W and to near 20N116W. 
High pressure covers the area north of about 16N and west of 
115W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures
over Mexico is supporting mostly moderate northwest winds west 
of the Baja California Peninsula, except for fresh to locally 
strong northwest winds near Cabo San Lucas. Winds are gentle to 
locally moderate across the Gulf of California. Elsewhere over 
the Pacific, winds are moderate or weaker in speeds. Seas are 5 
to 7 ft in northwest swell over the waters northwest of Cabo 
Corrientes per latest altimeter satellite data, 5 to 6 ft in 
south swell over the Pacific to the southeast of Cabo Corrientes,
1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, except for seas of 3 to 5 
ft in the southern section and slightly higher seas of 5 to 6 ft 
in long-period south swell at the entrance to the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong northwest winds will 
occur near Cabo San Lucas this morning. Northwest swell west of 
Baja California Norte will subside this morning. Otherwise, 
rather quiet conditions will remain over the Mexican offshores 
through the weekend. Looking ahead, high pressure building over 
the Gulf of America is expected to induce a strong to near gale 
force Tehuantepec gap wind event beginning Sun night into Tue. 
Brief gusts to gale-force may occur with this event. Meanwhile, a
set of northwest swell will move through the waters west of Baja 
California Norte late Tue before it subsides Wed and Wed night as it 
moves through the rest of the waters west of the peninsula. Seas are 
expected to peak to 8 or 9 ft with the swell.
Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the general weather 
pattern into the middle of next week and support moderate to 
fresh winds across the area. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh northeast winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region as
indicated by a recent scatterometer satellite data pass. These 
winds reach westward to near 87W. Moderate north to northeast 
winds are in the Gulf of Panama, and reach southward to near 
05N. Elsewhere, winds across the Central American and equatorial
waters are gentle or weaker. Seas over the forecast waters are 4
to 6 ft in long-period south to southwest swell.

Numerous to isolated strong convection is present from 02N to 08N 
between 86W and 92W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is occurring from 03S to 02S between 84W and 88W. 
Isolated showers are in the vicinity of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh speeds across the 
Gulf of Papagayo into early this afternoon. Otherwise, rather 
tranquil conditions are expected to remain over the Central 
American and the equatorial waters through early next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1022 mb is analyzed north of the area at 
34N132W, with a ridge extending southeastward to 28N127W and
to near 20N116W.  A weak pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressures associated to the ITCZ is allowing for only 
moderate to locally fresh northeast trades over forecast waters. 
Seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell. No additional deep convection
is occurring away from the surface trough/ITCZ.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the winds during
the next few days. Otherwise, little change in the seas are also
expected through the rest of the weekend. Looking ahead, a cold 
front is expected to reach the northwest part of the discussion 
late Sat into early on Sun. The cold front will move southeastward 
while gradually weakening and accompanied by moderate northwest 
winds and large northwest to north swell. The swell should reach 
near 20N and west of 120W by late Tue night. Seas peaking to around 
12 ft are expected with this set of swell.

$$
Aguirre