000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192050
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Aug 19 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 138W-139W, from 17N 
southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. 1007 mb low pressure
is analyzed near the wave at 10N139W, and has been designated 
Invest EP90. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted 
from 08N to 15.5N between 132W and 143W. Scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere south of the system from 00N to 05.5N
between 137W and 148W. Recent satellite scatterometer data shows
N to NE winds of 25 to 30 kt occurring in thunderstorms to the
west of the low pressure center. This area of active convection 
is showing some signs of improved organization. Environmental 
conditions appear favorable for further development of this 
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the 
next day or so as the system moves westward to west- 
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and crosses into the Central 
Pacific. This system has a high chance of tropical formation in 
the next 48 hours. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should 
closely monitor the progress of this system. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W-94W from 03N northward 
to coastal sections of SE Mexico, moving westward at around 15 
kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 05N to 15.5N between 89W and 100W. An 
area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred nautical
miles south-southwest of the coast of southern Mexico around the
end of the week. Gradual development of this system is likely 
thereafter, and a tropical depression is expected to form this 
weekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward, 
remaining well offshore of Mexico. This system has a low chance 
of tropical development in the next 48 hours. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 109W south of 17N, moving 
westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 07N to 15N between 101W and 113W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 138W-139W, and is described 
above in the special features section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 08N91W to 09.5N108W to
07N128W to low pressure 1007 mb, Invest EP90, near 10N138W to 
beyond 09.5N140W. Other than the convection described above with
three tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 03N to 08.5N E of 89W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 03N to 13N between 113W and 131W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information
on a tropical wave that has a potential for tropical development
offshore Mexico this upcoming weekend.

High pressure across the NE Pacific extends a ridge south-
southeastward into the regional waters to just northwest of the
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge
and low pressure troughing across Baja California has relaxed
today, and is yielding gentle to moderate NW to N winds across 
the near and offshore of Baja California north of Punta Eugenia, 
with fresh S to SE winds in the northern Gulf of California. 
Meanwhile, a tight pressure gradient continues over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec ahead of an approaching tropical wave, and is
producing strong N to NE gap winds in the Gulf and extending 
downstream to near 13.5N.596W. Resultant seas of 6 to 8 ft are 
present there. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder 
of the waters between Tehuantepec and Baja Sur. Seas are 4 to 6 
ft across the remainder of these offshore waters, 1 to 3 ft 
inside the Gulf of California, except 4 to 6 ft in northern Gulf
where the fresh winds are occurring. 

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms aloft are occurring
over the central Gulf of California and across portions of Baja
Sur, associated with another upper level low center shifting 
southwestward into the area. Scattered strong thunderstorms are 
drifting northwestward to near the coast of Tehuantepec and
Oaxaca, as this convection interacts with an upper level trough 
across that area. 

For the forecast, northerly gap winds will continue to pulse to 
strong north winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec each evening and 
night through the weekend, except likely only reaching fresh
speeds Thu night. Seas will occasionally build to rough during 
periods of strong winds. Low pressure across Baja California will
sustain a southerly wind flow across the Gulf of California 
waters, with fresh winds expected across northern portions there 
gradually diminishing this evening through Fri. Winds and seas 
will diminish modestly across the Baja offshore waters through 
the end of the week as high pressure weakens. Looking ahead, 
winds and seas are expected to build across the outer offshore 
waters of southwestern Mexico by Fri into the upcoming weekend in
association with a developing area of low pressure, expected to 
develop outside of the offshore waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on any
convection.

Fresh to locally strong easterly gap winds continue across the 
Papagayo region as shown by recent satellite scatterometer data,
and extend downwind to near 95W. Seas there are 6 to 8 ft with 
these winds. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough, and moderate south of the monsoon trough, except 
moderate to fresh south of 05N, highest near the entrance of the
Gulf of Guayaquil. Seas across most of the remainder of the 
waters north of the Equator are 4 to 6 ft in mixed cross 
equatorial S and SW swell, and 7 to 9 ft in S to SW swell south 
of 03.5N, highest south through southwest of the Galapagos 
Islands.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the northwestern Caribbean and relatively lower pressure 
over Central America will lead to fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing
to strong winds over the Papagayo region each evening and night
through the rest of the week and into the weekend, resulting in 
rough seas at times. Moderate to fresh winds extending well 
downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer waters offshore of El 
Salvador and Guatemala through the upcoming weekend. Moderate to
locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough and 
across the Galapagos waters will gradually diminish tonight 
through Thu than remain gentle to moderate through the weekend. 
Cross- equatorial SW swell moving into the regional waters will 
continue to merge with larger S to SE swell dominating the 
southern Pacific waters well south of the Galapagos to produce 
rough seas 8 ft and greater south of 02N, and moderate seas 
elsewhere through Thu before the rough seas area subsides.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on two tropical
waves that have potential for tropical development later this 
week and into the upcoming weekend.

High pressure across the NE Pacific extends a ridge south- 
southeastward into the regional waters to just northwest of the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds 
are noted from around 09N to 21N between 120W and 140W. Seas are
5 to 8 ft across these waters with a tropical wave helping to 
enhance conditions there. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are 
found south of 05N, with winds mainly moderate or weaker across 
the remainder of the waters. Seas are 7 to 10 ft south of 04N in 
mixed cross equatorial swell, and mainly 5 to 7 ft across the 
remainder of the waters, slightly lower in the north- central 
waters right under the ridging. Numerous moderate to strong 
convection from 08N to 15.5N between 132W and 143W accompanies 
the tropical wave along 138W-139W.

For the forecast, regardless of tropical development, the 
tropical waves described above will bring some increasing winds 
and seas to area waters S of 20N, as they move south of the 
current ridge in place. Expect active thunderstorms and potential
for winds to 30 kt with gusts in excess of 35 kt near the
tropicalwave along 138W-139W this evening and tonight. Away 
from these tropical waves, little change is expected in marine 
weather through the week and into the upcoming weekend.

$$
Stripling