000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130318
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed May 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N75W to 09.5N83W to 
09N87W. The ITCZ extends from 09N87W to 08N93W to 05.5N100W to 
08.5N115W to 07N125W to 09.5N136W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered  
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 11.5N 
between 81W and 104W and from 06.5N to 11.5N between 125W and
138W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N 
to 11.5N between 109W and 124W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge reaching across the offshore waters of Baja
California is partially disrupted by a surface trough just 
beyond the offshore waters along 126W. This pressure pattern 
supports moderate NW to N winds across the offshore waters from
Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas, except locally fresh along the
coast, light to gentle winds across the waters north of Punta
Eugenia. Seas across these waters are generally 4 to 5 ft in NW
swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to locally moderate N-NW
winds along the coast prevail across central and southern 
portions, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Fresh to locally strong
southerly winds have developed N of 30N due to localized 
troughing. Seas there are also 2 to 4 ft. Farther southeast,
light to gentle winds prevail south of Baja Sur to Puerto Angel,
where seas are 4 to 5 ft in SW swell. Strong N to NE gap winds 
continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec to 15N, with fresh NE 
winds then continuing to well offshore, due to high pressure 
building southward across eastern Mexico behind a cold front 
reaching across the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas are 6 to 8 ft 
within these winds. 

For the forecast, strong to near gale-force northerly gap winds
will pulse at night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu 
morning as high pressure builds over eastern Mexico behind a 
cold front in the Bay of Campeche. Seas will peak around 10 ft 
at times with these winds. Fresh to strong N winds will then 
pulse there into early Fri before diminishing. Fresh to locally 
strong S to SW winds will continue overnight in the northern 
Gulf of California as trough develops there, then possibly again
Wed evening. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds are expected
across the offshore waters of Baja California later tonight 
through Fri as ridging west of the area strengthens. Winds will
increase to fresh to strong well offshore Baja California Norte 
this weekend. Moderate seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed SW and NW 
swell will dominate the offshore waters, building to 8 ft 
offshore Baja California Norte by Fri night, then to 8-12 ft on
Sun, with seas of 8 ft or greater spread southward to offshore of  
Cabo San Lazaro.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh E to SE winds are offshore southern Nicaragua and the 
Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 88W this evening. 
Seas have subsided there to 4-6 ft. Light to gentle winds 
dominate the remainder of the waters, except for moderate NW to 
N winds across the western Gulf of Panama. Seas are mainly 4-6 ft
in southerly swell, except 5-7 ft from offshore Ecuador to the 
Galapagos Islands. Very active convection earlier this afternoon 
is shifting slowly westward and well offshore, and diminishing in
intensity. 

For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse to locally strong 
offshore of the Papagayo region through much of the week, mainly
at night into the early morning hours, building seas locally to 
rough during those times. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds 
and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the 
remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend, locally 
moderate to fresh out of the N-NE in the Gulf of Panama to the 
Azuero Peninsula at times. Showers and thunderstorms offshore of
western Panama and Cost Rica this evening will gradually shift
westward and diminish across the area through Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge extends across the waters N of the ITCZ to 20N. 
This pattern supports gentle to moderate mainly NE trades across 
the waters N of the ITCZ, except moderate to fresh from 09N to 
18N and W of 120W. Seas are mainly 5-8 ft seas in mixed long 
period southerly and northerly swell. Mainly gentle E-SE winds 
prevail S of the ITCZ, along with 6-7 ft seas, except 7-9 ft 
seas in southerly swell S of the Equator and W of 100W. Active 
convection is present near a low level trough along about 115W
and the ITCZ there, as described above.

For the forecast, the ridge will weaken slightly ahead of an 
approaching weak cold front currently reaching near 30N140W. The
associated weakened pressure gradient will support moderate 
trades, fresh at times, N of the ITCZ to about 22N and W of 120W 
tonight, with seas of 6-8 ft across this area. Mainly gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere during 
the week. New high pressure will begin to build across the region
from the NW early Wed through Fri to produce fresh trade winds S
of 23N and W of 125W, with seas building 7-9 ft. N winds are 
expected to strengthen slightly to fresh to strong across the NE 
and N-central waters by the weekend, with seas building there as 
a result. Rough seas to around 8 ft in southerly swell will 
continue across the far southwestern waters S of the Equator and 
W of 100W, and will persist there tonight. Seas of around 8 ft 
may continue across this same area through the end of the week 
and into the weekend.

$$
Stripling